Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BokoHaram

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The three major groups in Nigeria #BokoHaram (Shekau's JAS), #ISWAP and #Ansaru had their most active week of media releases this week. In addition to the highlight of their contents, I will also share my thoughts on where I think this decade-old insurgency is heading.

1. Let me start with highlights from #BokoHaram Shekau's JAS. JAS acknowledged the Death of Man Chari Abū Sadīq al-Bāmāwī. He was the commander that issued the first protest against the deposition of Shekau by ISIS. He led the group as a commander & Imam. See Text 73 of BH Reader
2. Despite JAS schism with #ISWAP, the group still sees itself as part of ISIS which explains why the speeches of ISIS leaders (Adnani & Zarqawi) were frequently invoked in all their releases. #Ansaru is the only group in Nigeria as of now that make references to Al-Qaeda.
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"Despite Pentagon assertions, secret programs allow American troops to direct combat raids in Somalia, Kenya, Niger and other African nations."

Behind the secret U.S. war in Africa
Revealed: The U.S. military's 36 code-named operations in Africa…
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What Do @PoliceNG Intend To Do About The Cops Detailed To The Nyanya (Abuja) Division,Patrolling In The Vehicle Marked "NPF 1557 D" Who Beat Jumbo Ochigbo, An Asst Superintendent Of The Civil Defence Corps, To Death As His Wife, Ada, And Sons, Emmanuel + Oche,Looked On In Horror?
@PoliceNG There is a certain level of near-bestial action which Nigerians observe in their security forces which can only make one wonder what a non-uniformed Nigerian's life is worth IF persons who bear arms in the name of the State can be this evil and ruinous towards each other
@PoliceNG Tis ONE reason why #BokoHaram remain on the prowl. The higher priorities are inter-service rivalry and exhibitions of dislike for each other's guts as security forces jostle to secure their places on some quirky pecking order of those who are empowered to brutalise Nigerians
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Zamfara in the last 7 days recorded less bloodshed compared to the previous week, but the rate of abductions of persons remains the same. There's however, something to worry about: an emerging evidence of the presence of Ansaru in #Zamfara,
operating across the states in North West #Nigeria right into the border with Niger Republic. #Ansaru is a sect, a breakaway faction of #BokoHaram in 2012. The were responsible for the prison break in Abuja in 2012.
So far, several armed bandits and cattle rustlers are being proselytized into the fold of the Jihadis while erring armed bandits are systematically being taken out by the #Ansaru elements. The Northwest may likely be the new jihadi battle ground in #Nigeria like the Northeast.
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Alert: Multiple sources are reporting that an attack on Maiduguri may be in the making, this night as over 50 #BokoHaram fighters have converged in Ajilari Kuros, which is approximately 2 kilometres from the city of #Maiduguri.
Update on attacks in #Maiduguri: At dawn today, #Bokoharam fighters infiltrated Maiduguri on foot from the old Molai road, where the CJTF engaged some of them. There were, however bomb blasts close to the Federal High Court and behind CBN Quarters within the metropolis.
These attacks are happening around the Ajilari and Molai axis, areas #Bokoharam fighters have always used as transit zones over the years to assemble fighters from different cells within the group before attacking the city of #Maiduguri.
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#BokoHaram fighters today at Moula village ambushed the 85 vehicle Convoy of the Provincial Governor of terror ravaged Borno Province NE Nigeria.

The rear tail of the convoy was attacked with PKM's, RPG7, newly purchased AK74 & AK47 on his way from political campaign in Dikwa /1
2/ while heading for border county and town of Gamboru-Ngala. About 16 vehicles, 157 persons were able to flee to nearby fire base FOB at Gajibo. Casualties yet unknown.

Provincial governor safe.
NOW: #BokoHaram now claiming they captured ten vehicles from the convoy of Borno provincial governor after Wednesdays vicious ambush.
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1/ A carelessly incurred fine, effectively ignoring a surging ISWAP, the CCB’s sudden impotence, and a judicial bailout for an under fire ruling party, Nigeria has become the land where the unnecessary is king.
2/ The drama between @MobilePunch and @CCBNigeria represents the latest indication of the current administration’s selective commitment to the rule of law.
3/ The irony of @CCBNigeria who responded to a letter against CJN #Onnoghen - an official who is no favourite of @MBuhari - in a matter of hours while ignoring a legal request for information that could potentially tar @AsoRock’s leading lights is inescapable.
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In Burkina Faso, Ansar ul-Islam, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) Are All Believed To Be Heavily Concentrating Their Recruitment Efforts On The Fulani, A Transnational Ethnic Group In West+Central Africa
The portents of this emerging reality for Nigeria is made all the more by the fact that terrorist activities have since 2018 increasingly shifted from the north to the east of that country.
Nigeria is separated from eastern Burkina Faso by a strip of Benin Republic territory which is not wider than 150 kilometres. Nigeria remains at the crossroads of Fulani-dominated pastoralist movements from all across the West and Central African sub-regions
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.@USAfricaCommand Gen Thomas Waldhauser & @Southcom Adm Craig Faller about to testify before the #SASC

Lawmakers already asking about growing influence of #Russia #China in their regions, as well as need to keep the pressure up on terrorism
"Overall US strategic interests in #Africa are very clear" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Waldhauser "Prevent the undermining of our alliances or destabilization of African nations,counter violent extremist organizations,decrease the potential for Africa to become a failed continent"
"Persistent pressure on #alShabaab #ISIS & #alQaida associated groups remains necessary to prevent this destabilization" per @USAfricaCommand's Gen Waldhauser
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(THREAD) #Nigeria: In this thread I will be posting all #ISWAP attack claims and everything connected to Nigerian Army's fight against the terrorists in northeastern part of the country. It will be better to have everything in one place. Stay tuned.
Here is part of my work about #ISIS in December. The number of ISWAP attacks reported by their media has doubled compared to November:
The map of #ISWAP control in Borno. The situation has changed since - Baga, Cross Kauwa and Kukawa have been recaptured by Nigerian Army:
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1/ The country’s profile got bleaker this week for a host of reasons - impetuous regulatory behaviour, refugees left out in the cold, a needless rise in public recurrent spending and an unshackled rogue police squad.
2/ Nothing illustrates #Nigeria’s dysfunction as much as the minimum wage palaver. The ₦27,000 ($75) or even ₦30,000 ($83) is not much – those that earn it will hover around the poverty line.
3/ The issue is that even such a wage is beyond the capacity of @AsoRock to pay, and for many small businesses as well, this will represent a massive upswing in cost. There is a disconnect between value creation by the workforce, and how much they earn.
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In 2011, at a time #BokoHaram assassinates people that criticize them, as a reporter based in Maiduguri then, I penned a scathing article on the Islamic Faith of Boko Haram. I was asked to leave town, but I stayed back.
In this 2012 report I asked, how does operating and living in denial of the existence of a nightmare help society or advance national security? Sadly, not much has changed since then. #LakeChad
In 2015 I argued in this report that ‘Regional military cooperation must improve to defeat #BokoHaram.’ Four years later, we’ve not seen the leadership that unified the countries in the #LakeChad region working towards a common military target & objective.
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Nigerian Air Force strike in Seyoram against alleged BH targets as part of OP Lafiya Doyle with NAF Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR). Location: @wikimapia (…). Video of strike: #Nigeria
BH Tech also seen destroyed in OP Lafiya Doyle video by NAF 11km SW of Baga along Kukawa Kauwa Border Rd (…). h/t to @africaken1 for ID of possible Nigeria Army-owned BM-21 GRAD MRLS 👇()
Surveillance footage shows NAF strikes on alleged ISWAP fighters at former fishing village in Doro Gowon fishing area, east Borno. Geolocated here:…. Note: attack was 4.5km N of Baga, which was attacked by militants on 27/12…
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It's bn a brutal holiday season in many parts of #Nigeria. In the NE, #BokoHaram ambushed a military convoy monday, on highway linking Maiduguri, capital of Borno state, with Damaturu in neighbouring Yobe state, killing 13 soldiers & a @PoliceNG officer…
Unsurprising, reports emerged shortly thereafter indicating that up to 167 @policeNG personnel in preparation for posting to counter-insurgency frontlines in NE #Nigeria have absconded before deployment, taking their weapons with them…
While the rest of the country marked Christmas, forced displacement appears to have intensified in NE #Nigeria, with @nemanigeria registering over 2,046 IDPs over the past 48 hours in one LGA…
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Addressing the annual conference of @NigBarAssoc in Aug, @MBuhari claimed #HumanRights were subject to his own notion of national security. As #Nigerians in different walks pay wth their lives for growing insecurity, it's impt to address #TheBuhariDoctrine…
Supporters of #TheBuhariDoctrine of national security easily cite the side comment (dictum) of a Justice of #Nigeria's Supreme Court in the case of Mujahid Asari Dokubo v. Federal Republic of #Nigeria decided when OBJ was President on 8 June 2006.…
In July 2009, during, under OBJ's successor, #UMYA, Yusuf Mohammed, the founder of #BokoHaram was executed extra-judicially by @PoliceNG. His killing became the proximate cause of an insurgency that has triggered multiple forms of lethal violence in #Nigeria
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This thread focuses on @Reuters reporting of land-related violence in Nigeria's Middle Belt which killed thousands of people in 2018. We tracked land use by analysing satellite data and visited the region throughout the year. 1/11
Over 1,300 people were killed in the Middle Belt in the first 6 mths of 2018, @CrisisGroup estimates - six times more than #BokoHaram in that period. And @amnesty says more than 3,600 people have been killed in clashes since 2016, mostly this year. 2/11
Reuters journalists studying satellite data found a massive expansion of farming in Nigeria meant open grazing land available in Nigeria's Middle Belt declined by 38% between 1975 and 2013 while the area dedicated to farming nearly trebled. 3/11
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Now we know why a few days ago, @GarShehu was trying to undermine @nigerianstat and the statistician general.

He had clearly seen the unemployment figures, and knew the 43% disaster that was en route, hence the very disgusting behaviour...
But there's another aspect to this nonsense the man tried to pull: asides undermining the integrity of the one organisation that is VERY important for us to climb out of our economic morass, Mr. Shehu's behaviour offered us an insight to how the current government solves problems
Rather than trying to understand the issues, what these characters do is to obfuscate, and try to divert attention.

Mr. Shehu's claim of 12 million people employed by rice alone does not stand up to any scrutiny whatsoever, but he made it anyway.
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2018 began with some trepidation as #Nigeria's economy failed to take off, and familiar sounds of discontent began to surface.

In the political space, questions mounted about whether the coalition that brought @MBuhari to power 3 years earlier would hold firm.

It didn't.
Meanwhile, the year, 2018, would go down as the year when @AsoRock's claims about having a lid on security issues were revealed to be mostly empty.
The year began with an escalation of #PastoralConflict, with tit-for-tat killings across 5 states, and a tepid reaction from @AsoRock.

This culminated in the unsightly scenario of one of #Nigeria's most prominent citizens asking his tribesmen to defend themselves.
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The brooding festive mood did little to stifle the fact that electoral reform was stumped, our worst fears about the north-east are real, a forex ban list got longer and regulatory immaturity persists.
Honourable Mohammed's remarks about #BokoHaram underscore the gulf between official propaganda regarding the north-east and the realities on the ground.
The region has been described previously by @TheEconomist as "a failed state within a failed state" and boasts some of the worst socio-economic and developmental indices in #Nigeria.
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At the ongoing #ASP2018, @FatuBensouda, Prosecutor of @IntlCrimCourt just released the rpt on Preliminary Examinations (PE), which addresses many countries, including #Nigeria.
In her Preliminary Examination rpt, @FatuBensouda reports that "from January to June 2018, over 1,300 ppl were killed" by farmer-herder violence in Adamawa, Benue, Nasarawa, Plateau & Taraba States "& about 300,000 persons were displaced."
During the past yr, according to @FatuBensuouda, @IntlCrimCourt received allegations of new crimes by the #BokoHaram Insurgency, violations by Nigerian Security Forces (NSF) & "with respect to communal violence in #Nigeria's North Central & NE geographical zones"
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The Nigerian government has shown unwillingness to use hindsight for the benefit of foresight to address the #BokoHaram/#ISWAP conflict. At every stop the insurgents seem more determined to kill than the government's determination to stop the killings.
The insurgents are no longer faceless as the previous Govt often said, their origins, locations and plans are known in the region. The civilian population of BH/ISWAP is more than the combatants. Therefore, Non military intervention is equally important as a military campaign.
Non military intervention does not mean dialogue with the insurgents, the prospects of a peace settlement in the #LakeChad is near impossible, at this stage. It is Nigerian govt that must dialogue with itself, to bring all its institutions to speed to complement the military.
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In View Of Recent Developments & The Protracted Nature Of The #BokoHaram Conflict, I Believe That The FG Now Need To Escalate A Political Process To New Highs. The Takeoff Point Has To Be The Appointment Of A "Special Rapporteur On The NE Conflict"
The obdurate leadership of BH+ISWAP will not readily accede to a peace process BUT there are aprroach roads at the lower level which can be escalated at the level of the populace to create a better operational backdrop for those who are tasked with security operations in that AoR
Even as that did not stack up to the NE Insurgency in terms of intensity, we have seen this pan out in the equally long standing conflict on the Jos Plateau, an area which was already stablilized enough as of 2014 as NOT to warrant fears of an inability to hold elections there
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At University of Sussex, I studied all Irregular Warfares in the 20th and 21st century, and I’d like to share a few insights from other Irregular Warfares on why I think Nigeria will not win the war against Boko Haram in the next 20 years. THE THREAD
Nigeria’s broad counterinsurgency (COIN) plan is to outkill Boko Haram. This is simplistic use of brute force. Military spendings from 2011 to 2015 shows that Nigeria spent $16.382 billion on defence, but made little progress against Boko Haram.
In fact, when military spendings were plotted against number of Boko Haram inflicted death, I found that the more we spent, the more deaths we recorded. The more we spent, the more Boko Haram progressed.
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#BokoHaram: Pres @MBuhari Reaction
Shortly after the 157 Task Force battalion came under intense enemy attack, the President activated multiple strategies in restoring the morales of the troops & assuring the citizenry of govt resolve in dealing effectively with the crisis.
The Pres, was able to calm the citizenry & acted in the nation’s defence. In a statement by @GarShehu on Nov 24, he assured Nigerians that “ In the coming days, I am engaging the Military & Intelligence Chiefs in extensive discussions on the next steps we shall be taking”
After receiving situation briefing from the Min of Defence, the (CnC) on Nov 25, deployed the Min of Defence in continuation on consultations with Ministers of Defence of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJF) Troops Contributing Countries (TCC) which includes Cameroon.....
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