Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Brexit

Most recents (24)

The 'World Trade Model developed at Cardiff University' has repeatedly been debunked as misleading, absurd and rubbish.

Virtually no other economist in the world endorses this model, including most economists at Cardiff University.

#Brexit
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…
"Put rubbish into a model and rubbish will spew out. This analysis should not be viewed as anything other than special pleading. If this is the sort of work that is influential among ministers and underpins policy, Britain’s economy is not in safe hands."

ft.com/content/9bddba…
Read 5 tweets
🌀Chaos🌀

Articles of impeachment introduced against Trump

Biggest drug COs flooded country with 76 BILLION opioid pills #Guiliani

House votes to condemn Trump’s tweets as he again lashed out

Epstein allegedly had 'improper sexual contact' w/ young women while in 'jail'
🌀Chaos2🌀

John Paul Stevens, longtime leader of Supreme Court’s liberal wing, dies at 99

A divided House votes for resolution condemning Trump's racist remarks

RU’s Elex Hackers Are Back & Targeting Soros TOC v WLD

Prosecution of Child-Sex Traffickers Plummeted Under Trump
🌀Chaos3🌀

A summary of Epstein’s assets made public shows he has $56M in cash, with another $500M divided between property & investments.

The bare-bones accounting estimates his homes in the U.S. Virgin Islands, one of them on his private island, are worth $85 million.
Read 77 tweets
@iainmartin1 @Simon_Nixon @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK borders. are not. fudges. they have very precise processes that users have to engage + comply with, especially trade ones. there's a reason the US @CBP agent i was explaining #Brexit to laughed when i said just on tariffs alone UK Govt wanted total control but no border controls
@iainmartin1 @Simon_Nixon @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK @CBP there's (also) a reason every business and business group in or anywhere near the currently-invisible border is at pains to explain how just having no infrastructure at the border isnt sufficient + that processes to enable that cant put them under as Govt's ND plans will
@iainmartin1 @Simon_Nixon @TomMcTague @DavidHenigUK @CBP and biz going under in NI/border region isnt the same as anywhere else in a way I dont even need to repeat - peace, prosperity, smuggling, compliance, enforcement - these are all words that bloody matter there. if u care about a) NI staying in Union + b) avoiding serious problems
Read 3 tweets
Michael Flynn’s Ex-Business Partner Points the Finger at Him in Court

"When questioning the Turkish govt’s influence ops in the U.S., the jury should look at the newly announced cache of evidence the gov't has on Flynn," Bijan Kian's lawyer said.

thedailybeast.com/michael-flynns…
"Kian instead worked on behalf of a Turkish-Dutch businessman named Ekim Alptekin, Trout said. (Alptekin is named as a defendant in the Kian case but will likely avoid appearance because he is living in Istanbul.) "
"According to a gov't indictment filed last year, Flynn and Kian worked together throughout the fall of 2016, when Flynn was an advisor to then candidate Trump, on a project to try and extradite Gulen back to Turkey."
Read 24 tweets
Poll Final:

I'm very heartened by this.

If

1. There's now a (growing) majority for remain; and

2. The adjuste-to-only-count-real-votes number says 98.9% will vote non-tribally to stop #Brexit

Then

That predicts a more-hung parliament with remain in the 1/2
2/2 driving-seat.

We need a #GE for that to happen. If there is one, let's make that happen!
Read 4 tweets
It seems there is a new #Brexit 'solution' doing the rounds.

It is based on this tweet:


With extra detail here:


Let's call it "infinite transition to avoid the Backstop"
The Tories have made a load of noise about the Backstop for a long time. They have made it *the* problem.

The best they came up with was to replace it with "alternative arrangements" but could not articulate what those were.
The new wheeze is combine changes to the Brexit transition period with the elimination of the Backstop.

Instead of the Backstop being needed when Britain's EU transition period ends at end of 2020/22, the transition wouldn't be time limited.
Read 9 tweets
Right then, my blog post about Implausible #Brexit Scenarios is now online!
jonworth.eu/implausible-br…

Summarised in this thread, there are 10 such scenarios!
1️⃣
May decides to revoke Article 50

She was given the power to invoke Article 50, so she has the power to revoke it. She writes a little letter to Donald Tusk and posts it en route to the Palace on 24 July!
2️⃣
Hunt wins the Tory Leadership, and aims for Soft Brexit

Were all the polls wrong, and Hunt could win still? And then he would do what we thought he always wanted - a Soft Brexit? It's a long shot!
Read 12 tweets
Interesting results on people's self-described national identity in Northern Ireland from 2016-2018 using @ARK_info NI Life & Times survey data when considering the variable of religion.

Breakdown of respondents is roughly 4/10 Catholic, 4/10 Protestant & 2/10 No Religion.

1/4
We see that 2016-2018 there has been very little change since 2016 in the proportion of #Catholic respondents saying they have Irish-only and predominantly-Irish identity.
Notably, c.1 in 10 describe themselves as having an 'other' identity.

Here are the 2018 results 👇 
2/4
There has been a significant shift among #Protestant respondents towards having a more exclusively British identity.
That said, the proportion saying that their identity is (at least) mainly British has remained stable after a boost in 2017.
Here are the 2017 results
👇
3/4
Read 4 tweets
I am proud to bring you the ladybird book of Scapegoating part of the key #Brexit concepts series
Brexiters are the most blameless people in the entire world. Whatever goes wrong someone else is always to blame in #Brexit Britain brexiters can blame anyone for anything so long as its not the people actually responsible
Even when Brexiters do bad things newspapers other people are to blame here in a typical story in #Brexit Britain Boris Johnson starts a fire and the Daily telegraph blames it on Remainers we are thus governed by people who aren't responsible for their own actions
Read 18 tweets
There's so much going on here it's difficult to know where to start!

But start we must.

So, remember when the Brexiters said #Brexit was all about sovereignty & being free? Well, turns out America will decide your policies. You have no veto. Or vote. 1/8 telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/…
Secondly, Britain and the US are both members of the Five Eyes security alliance. Trump's administration would have shared their intel on #Huawei with the UK.

It is very telling that Britain did not buy in to Trump's anti-Huawei narrative that it poses a #security risk.

2/8
Trump's position was already undermined when he had said that @Huawei could be part of a trade deal with #China - apparently ignoring the "fact" that it is a #security risk. If it was such a risk, it would never be allowed to trade in the US. 3/8

link.medium.com/Fkj3DRSgjY
Read 8 tweets
It should be noted that the tedious row over Gatt Article 24 is yet another decoy. Supposing both parties did agree to use it as an interim measure, it doesn't even begin to address the issue of border formalities and regulatory barriers. It is a total red herring.

#Brexit
Again this is another example where UK politics completely disregards everything said by Brussels. They will refuse an Article 24 proposal. No such talks will begin until EU preconditions are satisfied and the balance of leverage will be 100% in the EU's favour.
The EU first and foremost will want a formal solution to the NI question and it will look a lot like the backstop. It can afford to wait us out as the bad news mounts for the UK economy. They'll enjoy it too. It's power they can't resist using.
Read 5 tweets
Any #Brexit would be a total #Catastrophuc for UK! Reasons will follow in this 12 part thread, to be developed over coming days. If you know of any NET benefits from #Brexit, please feed them in. They'd need to be good to match the >£1bn pw this mess is ALREADY costing US! 1/12.
Easiest one first! Full #EU membership (as NOW) gives the UK unrestricted tariff-free & frictionless trade access to an enlarged & well developed HOME market of 550+ million people in 27 fellow member states, being SO much MORE than our own UK of 4 much smaller parts. 2/12.
Brexiteers discount EU's relentless progress in terms of comprehensive trade deals with international markets. While UK has been a busy fool, chasing Brexit and getting nowhere! EU has signed Canada, Korea, Japan and (recently) Brazil & Argentina! All OURS to access NOW! 3/12.
Read 16 tweets
THREAD: Into the belly of the beast 2!

It's the mornin after the #Panorama hit job, I'm in a BBC studio lookin to defend JCs Labour & get a few truth nuggets onto the airwaves.
Nerves are in equal proportion to the gravity of the situation. We NEED a Labour gov. #VictoriaLIVE 1/
I was astounded to find that a researcher for this program focused on 'Labour Antisemitism' had never heard of Al Jazeeras 'The Lobby'. During a pre-screening phone call I explained what was revealed in that program, an infinitely more revealing expose than the BBCs effort. 2/
Armed w/ pages of notes, I knew what I wanted to say, including excellent input from twitter. But when it came to it, the chances I got were curtailed by the host. Others were given time for long speeches, I was cut off when I mentioned Jackie Walker. 3/
Read 15 tweets
Here's my advice to any diplomat or any public servant anywhere in the UK: if you feel the urge to be honest, don't. You no longer can. Everything must be sugar coated because leaking confidences doesnt matter anymore, there's apparently no such thing as a "confidential briefing"
What's so depressing about such a ludicrous statement from a public figure who until recently appeared on TV every morning is the casual, carefree damage this comment causes

By this token no public servant can ever give an honest account ever again

Turn this around to the #Brexit Morgan now supports...if you're a negotiator who's just been told the French could be more relaxed on the backstop under certain conditions...

Well great, but for *God's sake* don't write it down

Vandals, the lot of them
Read 3 tweets
Confused about timelines for #EUTopJobs and #Brexit?

Try this, which came off the back of this post about @vonderleyen

blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2019/…

@UKandEU
Key point to take away is that EU jobs are filled immediately, but with enough delay that they don't really impact on Brexit ahead of the 31 October deadline
And here with the UK timeline too: basically one side's done before the summer, the other after (and quite a lot after)
Read 4 tweets
@John110000 @patanna Actually, Greece IS running a budget surplus at about the level needed, by the bye. And this isn't a real peer-reviewed publication. In any event, neither Blyth nor Varoufakis are "leading" political economists. Blyth has more real publications and is an actual scholar, 1/
@John110000 @patanna but Varoufakis is a pol w/ a PhD. As this thread began w/ my voicing the insanity of #Brexit (with which u seem to agree), then I'm unclear what we r debating. That the #EU should write off some more Greek debt (inevitable). That some kind of #Lexit was possible (prob not). ?? 🤷‍♂️
Read 3 tweets
As the Tory Leadership election nears its conclusion, and post-Darroch fiasco, I have made a new #BrexitDiagram - series 3, version 7

#Brexit
As ever, high res PNGs and PDFs are on my blog, as is the .ods file used to calculate the probabilities:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

Note the .ods file has a new structure for this version, allowing you to change the probabilities per node easily and see the impact
The changes here - in comparison to V6 from a fortnight ago:
General Election - 66% (⬆️ from 61%)
#PeoplesVote - 9% (⬆️ from 4%)
No Deal - 13% (⬇️ from 19%)
Further Art 50 Ext - 6% (⬇️ from 8%)
Exit with Deal - 6% (⬇️ from 8%)
Read 8 tweets
Reading the excellent @ConUnit_UCL blog post on what happens after new Tory leader is appointed:
constitution-unit.com/2019/06/30/six…

And then trying to put that into my latest #BrexitDiagram...
Imagine the following happens:
1) Johnson chosen 23 July
2) 3 Tory MPs cross House, Tory+DUP has no majority any more
3) Queen cannot appoint Johnson as a result, 2 weeks to find a solution
Two routes from this are pretty obvious:
1) Johnson softens his Brexit position, and tries to win confidence back
2) No solution found so UK heads for General Election
Read 5 tweets
Of all the crud thrown around in #NoDeal #Brexit hubris, the ‘Ireland as hostage in suicide threat’ meme has to be one of the worst.

#FriendlyNeighbours

express.co.uk/news/uk/115133…
After meeting Barnier yesterday, Barclay said:
“I think the impact of no-deal is greater to the Irish economy than it is in the UK. So the EU want to avoid no-deal.”

That ‘I think’ is doing a lot of work there.

In that it isn't quite accurate.
2/
The fact is that, sure, Ireland will be deeply affected by #NoDeal, and in an intrinsically negative way.

Economic analysis predicts a fall of around 0.5-1.5% in GDP in the year afterwards, with a cumulative effect of -4.5% by 2023.
3/
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Read 9 tweets
Out now: Analysis of Jan Will and me on how the power balance in the EP was affected by the bazar of parties, i.e. parties switching their group affiliation in the EP or choosing which party group to join in the first place. /1
Main conclusions:

First, contrary to common wisdom, most of the new parties joined groups of the centre, not the EU-sceptic or populists groups. Biggest winner was the @RenewEurope. Most of the gains compared to old ALDE came from new 'entrepreneur parties' (@joseflentsch) /2
@RenewEurope @joseflentsch Second, the consolidation of EU-sceptic forces aimed for by Salvini, Bannon & Co. failed to materialize.

The new ID is effectively the old ENF, with the biggest move coming from the AfD. Only very few MEPs left the ECR for the more radical new ID group /3
Read 7 tweets
*There is no such thing as bad news*

A Thread for beginners on twitter about using twitter to campaign for #remain

so - first point. On twitter there is no such thing as bad news. Every time something makes you react, twitter record that fact - and use it .........

1/30
to make twitter more interesting. That is what twitter cares about.
So when you:
Like ❤️
retweet♻️
Quote Tweet 💬
click to expand a picture or article to read 🖼️
or vote in a poll📊
You are telling twitter that you are interested in THAT tweet - and they will act on it

2/n
Nothing succeeds like success ....

..they will act by sending you - and other people with a similar profile, more of these things that *interest you* for you to look at😣

3/n
Read 31 tweets
All the speculation on @BorisJohnson "renegotiation" on #Brexit has focused on 1) time limits to backstop & 2) a timetable for alternative arrangements. But a third option is also in play, as 1) is undeliverable by EU & 2) doesn't go far enough for opponents of May's deal. Thread
This would involve prolonging transition (maximum implementation period currently runs until end 2022) to "bury" backstop & give UK & EU more time to solve Irish border. This idea was originally tested by @theresa_may earlier in year. Was killed by opposition of @DavidMundellDCT
& Scottish Tories who didn't want to be stuck under CFP for longer period. But DUP weren't averse. Would therefore deliver some of ERG. Labour backbenchers previously lukewarm to idea now also likely to be more supportive - as growing number worry about rising prospect of no deal
Read 6 tweets
@AndyBelfast @BrigidLaffan @ademonkiss Your own security forces "talked up" violence.

I just don't think you get it.
#Brexit was not voted for by a majority of NI & not backed at all by the community that doesn't think there should be a border there.
@AndyBelfast @BrigidLaffan @ademonkiss It was an unnecessary and, frankly, aggressive move by Unionism on both sides of the Irish Sea.
@AndyBelfast @BrigidLaffan @ademonkiss Certainly, we are under zero obligation to help with this.

Badly thought out by a nation that seems to be on some emotional rollercoaster since Lady Di.
Read 3 tweets
Those who most loudly proclaim their patriotism are most likely to betray the interests of their nation.
#BorisJohnson
We made a short film about this phenomenon: #fakepatriots selling out the national interest doubledown.news/watch/2017/11/…
#Brexit was never about independence. It was about breaking out of the EU's orbit to become a satellite of the US. Boris Johnson is not yet in office, but already he is behaving like the vizier of a vassal state, acting for the US against our interests. #KimDarroch
Read 6 tweets

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