Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CA25

First read: this "starting point" map for the CA commission is decent for Rs. It eliminates a Dem seat in LA County (as expected) and imperils Harder (D) in #CA10, while leaving all incumbent 11 Rs w/ a path to victory (though Nunes & esp. Issa would face much tougher races).

Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (North):

#CA01 LaMalfa (R) - Trump +15 to +6
#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +8
#CA07 Bera (D) - Biden +14 to +4
#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +1
#CA21 Valadao (R) - Biden +11 to +9
#CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +3

Notable shifts in this early "visualization" (South):

#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +12
#CA36 Ruiz (D) - Biden +14 to +8
#CA39 Kim (R) - Biden +10 to +8
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +15
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to Trump +1
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +6

Read 4 tweets

CALIFORNIA: may lose a seat for the first time since statehood. At serious risk in that scenario (right): LA County and #CA25 Rep. Mike Garcia (R).

Not at much risk: Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R) #CA23 and Devin Nunes (R) #CA22. Full report @CookPolitical: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

If CA does lose a seat, the commission is likely to axe a seat in slow-growing LA County. But even if it eliminates a Dem-held seat in central LA, that could pull surrounding seats inward, making #CA25 (right) a Biden +20 district - unwinnable for Garcia (R).

One LA district at risk of getting axed: Rep. Nanette Barragan (D)'s #CA44, which was originally drawn as a Black opportunity district and isn't performing. But she's bordered by three Dem incumbents age 79+, and could easily run for one of their seats if one retires.

Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.

For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.

Biden/R districts (9):

#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne

Trump/D districts (7/8?):

#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind

Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016.

Daily Kos Elections

@DKElections

We've got a big one for ya—real big: 2020 presidential results for all 53 of California's congressional districts! dkel.ec/383yVVJ

Three of the most interesting results came in seats Dems won in '18 but the GOP flipped in '20: #CA21, #CA25, and #CA39. Republicans won all three by about 1 pt, but Biden carried each district by around 10 pts, suggesting a lot of ticket-splitting

That wasn't the case in the GOP's fourth flip, #CA48, which Biden carried by 2 but Republican Michelle Steel won by 2. Still an overperformance, but not as dramatic. Both parties will want to study these races to understand the crossover vote

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

Now that Kern and Ventura Counties have posted their full results, some quick takeaways from California's House races.

#CA25
POTUS '16
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%

POTUS '20
Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%

CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%

CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%

Interestingly, the conservative Ventura County portion of #CA25, which houses the Reagan Library, voted 49.4% /44.44% for Trump over Clinton in 2016, but narrowly went 48.93%/48.86% to Biden by 51 votes this year, while Mike Garcia carried it 54.23%/45.77%.

Read 13 tweets

Charles #GetCovered-ba

@charles_gaba

What?? A Republican conceded that they lost without demanding a recount? Wow. That's refreshing...

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1329589466021945347

According to @CookPolitical, the House tally is now:

Democrats: 222
Republicans: 209

...with 4 uncalled races...and check out how close they are:

But wait: #NY22 is now down to just a *75* vote difference!

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329532743122882563

It's been a terrible day for Dems in uncalled House races:

#CA21: Valadao (R) still ahead by 4,026 votes
#CA25: Garcia (R) retakes lead by 159 votes
#CA39: Kim (R) lead up to 4,160 votes
#IA02: Miller-Meeks (R) now ahead by 40 votes
#UT04: Owens (R) lead up to 1,780 votes

Look guys, I've seen enough. Young Kim (R) is well on her way to defeating freshman Rep. Gil Cisneros (D) in #CA39. In an upset, Dems lose an Orange County district Clinton carried 51%-43% in 2016.

Kim (R) just turned in an unreal performance in the Los Angeles Co. portion of #CA39 (Rowland Heights, Diamond Bar, Walnut), zooming ahead of both Trump's '16 share and her own '18 share. I'm pretty curious what happened there.

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Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print & Share!) & Links to Follow & Support!
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ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
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Check it out!
THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates!
50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
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ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
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Rating change: #VA05 race between Cameron Webb (D) and Bob Good (R) moves from Lean R to Toss Up at @CookPolitical as Republicans sound the alarm. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

If you guessed Charlottesville, VA, you win. A month ago I wouldn’t have guessed we would be moving #VA05 - a deeply polarized, Trump +11% seat - to Toss Up.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1306695570220875777

But could it be deja vu? In 2008, Tom Perriello pulled off the upset of the cycle in #VA05 against a "biblical" R who ran a stone age campaign.

In 2020, Cameron Webb - perhaps Dems' best House candidate anywhere in the country - is running against a "biblical" R & divided GOP.

Read 7 tweets

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Update Sep 12
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ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
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Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
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& follow @NDLB2020

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John Vogel for State Assembly

ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
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@Vogel4Assembly

After yesterday's #RepealAB5 vote, I wanted to share the names of some Legislators who were there on the floor but did something worse than vote against the repeal, THEY REFUSED TO VOTE AT ALL. Thread coming.

First up is @ChristyforCA25! We all remember Christy for voting twice for #AB5, only to go down in flames during her Congressional run. She's running again, so the community needs to remind her again why she lost.

Next, we have @VoteCottie, the freshman Orange County Assemblywoman locked in a tight reelection race, time to send someone to Sacramento to vote, not take walks on votes!

Read 8 tweets

Rep. Mike Garcia

@RepMikeGarcia

One of the highest honors and duties I have as your Congressman is spending time with and paying tribute to the families of service members who have made the ultimate sacrifice in defense of our nation.

Today, I was humbled & honored to attend a funeral service in honor of Gunnery Sergeant Diego Pongo, USMC, in Arlington National Cemetery with his family. The Pongos are residents of Simi Valley. Diego was a true hero to our nation & was killed in action on March 8, 2020 in Iraq.

While #CA25 mourns his loss, we also give thanks for his selfless sacrifice and the sacrifices of his family. Gunnery Sergeant Diego Pongo represents the best of us and will forever be remembered as a true American hero and patriot.

Read 10 tweets

EMILY's List

@emilyslist

Help make it happen! Follow and support:

#AR02 @xjelliott
#AZ06 @hiral4congress
#CA25 @ChristyforCA25
#FL16 @GoodforFlorida
#GA07 @Carolyn4GA7
#IL13 @BetsyforIL
#IN05 @HaleIndy
#KS02 @Michelle4Kansas
#MI03 @HillaryScholten
#MN08 @QuinnNystrom

https://twitter.com/emilyslist/status/1285973378277543938

These women can FLIP seats in November:

#MO02 @JillSchupp
#MTAL @WilliamsForMT
#NE02 @karaforcongress
#NY01 @ngoroff
#NY02 @VoteJackie4NY
#NY21 @TedraCobb
#NY24 @dana_balter
#NC02 @DeborahRossNC
#NC06 @KathyManningNC
#NC08 @TimmonsGoodson

https://twitter.com/emilyslist/status/1285973378277543938

Make sure you’re supporting all of the incredible women who can help EXPAND the House majority:

#OH01 @KateForCongress
#OH10 @TimsDesiree
#PA01 @FinelloForPA
#TX02 @SimaforTX
#TX21 @wendydavis
#TX23 @GinaOrtizJones
#TX24 @candacefor24
#WA03 @ElectLong

https://twitter.com/emilyslist/status/1285973378277543938

Ronna McDaniel

@GOPChairwoman

Democrats are making a mockery of our elections in CA.

First, Gov. Newsom signed an executive order to send mail-in ballots to “all voters,” regardless if they are inactive (and likely died or moved away).

CA doesn’t even know how many inactive voters are on its rolls. (1/6)

On Tuesday, Democrats made their intentions clear by voting against an amendment in the state senate that would have prohibited ballots from going to the “huge but unknown number of inactive voters who might not even exist.” (2/6)
sfchronicle.com/politics/artic…

What’s worse, the bill Democrats are advancing now would allow mail-in ballots to be returned by ballot harvesters and counted for at least *20 days* after Election Day.

Seriously. (3/6)

Joe Khalil

@JoeKhalilTV

Congressman elect Mike Garcia becomes Congressman Mike Garcia. Officially being sworn in this morning #CA25 #NexstarDC

“For 244 years, this beautiful nation has thrived and survived on the back of those who showed up at the right time, to do the right thing and for the right reasons.” -Rep. @MikeGarcia2020 #NexstarDC

And with the final gavel Speaker Pelosi welcomes the new members into the full House. Garcia is scheduled to do a press availability one an hour or so, we’re gonna try to get him and ask a few questions. #NexstarDC

Read 7 tweets

Katie Hill

@KatieHill4CA

So yeah it really hurt to have my old seat flip back to Republican-for a ton of people & also for me. In fact, it was pretty fucking devastating. I went offline & cried for a few days but, as always, getting ready to stand back up & keep fighting. Hope you are too.

Onward.❤️

Let’s be clear. My ex gave nonconsenual nude pics of me to the ppl who wanted this seat- people who were backing Garcia when he was my opponent. They gave those pics to the press. I resigned.

I take full responsibility for my mistakes, but this Republican win is no coincidence.

To @christyforca25, @housedemocrats, #CA25, my former staff & everyone who worked so hard to flip this seat, I’m so sorry. I know I let you down, and I reflect on my role in it all everyday. Know that I’m here, ready to work. Let’s take this seat back in Nov - #CA25 deserves it