Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #GlobalSlowDown

Most recents (7)

recap monthly MT GLOBAL M.PMI Jun2019 surveys - Business Confidence vs Markets thread 1/n

• most countries continue to weaken = #GlobalSlowDown
• Global index falls to 80M low
• market prices global central bank renew /continue dovish stance
• first chart: "breadth"
2/n Global M.PMI DM vs EM

• Global 49.6 80M low
• DM 49.5 80M low
• EM 49.6 36M low

all now < 50

(GDP weighted calculations)
3/n Global / DM / EM 5Y rolling pctl and Freight costs BDI YoY

• everyone expects global flush of liquidity, rate cuts, possible QE, to quickly stimulate way ahead of lurking recessions ?
Read 20 tweets
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly recap wk26 as of 28Jun19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• mixed week, but EoM EoQ EoHY reshuffling, window dressing RiskOn momentum continues overall as Creditspreads tighter, US stocks breadth better, Vola below avg and big hope priced in for FED cuts
2/n Global Markets performance MoM June 2019

• ~90% of global stocks green
• all US sectors green
• US$ retreated (ahead of FED cuts)
• Govt bonds soared in disinflation
• Credits tighter
• weak US$ helped commodities
3/n Global Markets YTD

• Global Risk rallied on verbal global dovish central banks
• Global bonds rallied on global slowdown
Read 18 tweets
ZEW SURVEY CONFIDENCE COLLAPSED chart thread 1/8

• Financial analysts (not business survey) with renewed darker outlook for the global economy
• Tariff wars
• Export trouble
• Iran tension
• no-deal-BREXIT fear

#GlobalSlowDown continues
#DovishCentralBanks
2/8 ZEW June Survey

Analysts' Eurozone economic expectations collapsing to -20.2 ... and next Business outlook (IFO, ESI, PMI) will most likely weaken too
3/8 ZEW June Survey Eurozone economic expectations vs ECB Repo

• ZERO chance for rate hikes
• 100% chance for QE and rate cuts
Read 9 tweets
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly recap wk21 as of 24May19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• RiskOFF
• stocks weaker
• Govt Bonds bid, Bull-flattening
• Credit spreads wider
• flash PMI: US 50.6 ! JP 49.6 EA 47.7 = JPM Global PMI exp < 50
• IFO weak
• PM May resigned
2/n Global Markets update wk21 YTD
3/n Global Markets update wk21 overview wk/mth/YTD/YoY
Read 25 tweets
MT GLOBAL M.PMI monthly recap Feb2019 surveys thread 1/n

• MT Global M PMI 51.3 29M L
• JPM Global M PMI 50.6 32M L
• Breadth chart
2/n Global M PMI world view

• Global 51.3 29M L
• DM 51.7 30M L
• EM 50.5 3M H
• F5 52.0 12M H
3/n Global M PMI "big 4"

• US 53.0 18M L
• EA 49.3 ! 68M L
• CHINA 49.9 3M H
• JAPAN 48.9 32M L

#GlobalSlowDown
#GlobalDovishCBs
Read 20 tweets
GLOBAL MONTHLY UPDATE thread 1/n

Global M.PMI vs Y/Y in relation to world GDP contribution.

dramatic shift towards lower left quad. Expect PBoC stimuli, and why did ECB stop QE ?

#OGMT
2/n Global M.PMI Y/Y heatmap

2011/2012 comes in mind...

#OGMT
3/n Global Macro Snapshot
Read 27 tweets
Jan2019 M.PMI APAC so far

• JP 50.3 29M L
• AU 52.5 3M H
• CN NBR 𝟰𝟵.𝟱 up
• CN Cai 𝟰𝟴.𝟯 35M L
• IN 53.9 up
• ID 𝟰𝟵.𝟵 12M L
• SK 𝟰𝟴.𝟯 6M L
• TW 𝟰𝟳.𝟱 40M L
• PH 52.3 4M L
• TH 50.2
• VN 51.9 4M L
Jan2019 M.PMI Eurozone

• EA 50.5 50L
• DE 𝟰𝟵.𝟳 50L !
• FR 51.2 4H
• IT 𝟰𝟳.𝟴 85L !
• ES 52.4 up
• NL 55.1 28L
• AT 52.7 28L
• GR 53.7 3L
• IR 52.6 27L

#OGMT #GlobalSlowDown
Jan2019 M.PMI ex-EZ EMEA

• GB 52.8 3L
• CH 54.3 28L
• SE 51.5 29L
• NO 58.3 5H
• RU 50.9 4L
• HU 54.0
• PL 𝟰𝟴.𝟮 up
• CZ 𝟰𝟵.𝟬 72L
• TU 𝟰𝟰.𝟮 =
• ZA 50.5

#OGMT #GlobalSlowDown
Read 5 tweets

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