Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NY23

Most recents (21)

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Lakshya Jain
@lxeagle17
Following a slew of Democratic overperformances (#NY19, #NY23, #MN01, #NE01) and a polling surge for them post-Dobbs, we have some ratings changes @SplitTicket_ to announce.

#WISen: Lean R -> Tossup
#PASen: Tossup -> Lean D
#AZSen: Tossup -> Lean D

split-ticket.org/2022/08/24/tem…
@SplitTicket_ I'm not saying Oz can't win. Nor am I saying Masters cannot. I'm simply saying that you cannot create a credible case at the moment to say either of those two candidates is favored, and that's what you'd need to keep a race at a tossup. Rs have a chance, but Ds have the edge.
@SplitTicket_ I will not be moving NH until the primary. If Bolduc wins, #NHSen is Likely Democratic.

Anyways, I'm sure this will produce well-reasoned, good-faith discourse!
Read 4 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
House special election results since start of June:

#CA22 (6/7, Trump +5): R+24
#TX34 (6/14, Biden +4): R+5
------(Dobbs)-------
#NE01 (6/28, Trump +11): R+5
#MN01 (8/9, Trump +10): R+4
#NY19 (8/23, Biden +2): D+2
#NY23 (8/23, Trump +11): R+7
But the caution flag on Dem overperformance? These have all been low-turnout specials decided by a fraction of November's likely electorate.

Here's special election votes as a % of total 2020 votes cast:

#CA22: 37%
#TX34: 14%
#NE01: 38%
#MN01: 32%
#NY19: 36%
#NY23: 23%
For context: last November, when Rs massively outperformed in NJ/VA, here was the turnout as a % of total 2020 votes cast:

NJ: 58%
VA: 74%

This isn't to say the enviro hasn't improved for Dems. It has. But specials can't tell us extent of improvement w/ the fuller electorate.
Read 3 tweets
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Daily Kos Elections
@DKElections
Hero of the night is looking like @votevets. They spent $500,000 to help Pat Ryan in #NY19 and were the only Dem group to really get involved in terms of independent expenditures
No AP call in #NY23 GOP primary yet, but NBC has called it for state party chair Nick Langworthy. Black eye for Elise Stefanik, #3 in the House GOP, who endorsed racist Carl Paladino—a move that led other House GOP leaders to claim she'd "gone rogue"! nbcnews.com/politics/congr…
The DCCC did run a joint ad with Ryan (it seemed like a so-called "hybrid" ad, where costs are split), but it's not clear how much the cmte spent on it axios.com/2022/08/10/new…
Read 5 tweets
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Rich Baris "The People's Pundit"
@Peoples_Pundit
Sempolinski takes a 600-vote lead in #NY23 and #NY19 is down to 6k, or just 52.8% to 47.2%.
Sempolinski wins.
Bad result for Republicans tonight, folks.

Look at South Florida. Look at New York.

It's hard to draw big conclusions off of races like this. But without a doubt, they're underperforming Donald Trump.
Read 8 tweets
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Daily Kos Elections
@DKElections
The AP has called #FL11 GOP primary for Rep. Dan Webster. The longest-serving state legislator in FL history and its first GOP state House speaker since Reconstruction turns back far-right activist Laura Loomer in shockingly tight contest.
Over in GOP primary for open and dark red #OK02, former state Sen. Josh Brecheen leads state Rep. Avery Frix 54.5-45.5. Group affiliated with Club for Growth spent heavily for Brecheen, a former Club fellow.
AP calls #FL13 GOP primary for Trump's candidate, 2020 nominee Anna Paulina Luna. She'll face former DoD official Eric Lynn in seat GOP gerrymandered into 53-46 Trump.
Read 46 tweets
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RRH Elections
@RRHElections
R’s did a nice job of settling quickly on candidates in the winnable Hudson Valley seats: Mike Lawler in 17, Colin Schmitt in 18, and Marc Molinaro in 19.

Watch now for whether higher-profile R’s jump into open 1 and 3 on Long Island. R’s also need a recruit in Katko’s open 22.
Claudia Tenney also did the GOP a big favor by running in #NY24, which she barely represents. This avoids a needless incumbent faceoff with Jacobs in 23 or a primary with Molinaro in 19. The (likely R) winner of the old #NY23 special will likely be without a chair this fall.
More than anything, she did the GOP a huge favor by not running in a marginal district she’d likely lose in 2024. Notably, she is one of the House Republican Conference’s worst electoral performers.
Read 3 tweets
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Dustin M. Czarny
@DustinCzarny
I am glad the court gave candidates an option to decide where they run, the new #ny22 draft is a good reason why. The district shifted dramatically west adding Oneida & losing Tompkins and Cortland and Cayuga. this will leave alot of questions about who is running where. 1/4
On the Democratic side it seems obvious the @OnondagaCounty residents @FDConole, @SarahKleeHoodNY, @Chol_4Congress , and @samrobertsny will stay in district. However @JoshuaUE99 & @vfajans live in Tompkins and have to make a decision to stay in #ny22 or go to #ny19. 2/4
On the GOP side both declared candidates @Sigler4Congress (Tompkins) and Brandon Williams (Cayuga) are out of district. @claudiatenney lives in district but said she was moving to run in #ny23. 3/4
Read 6 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
BREAKING: national Dems are using a "communities of interest" argument to urge their Albany counterparts to adopt an aggressive 23D-3R gerrymander that could wipe out five of NY's eight GOP seats. nyirc.gov/storage/commen… Image
Highlights of the 23D-3R plan recommended by commenter "Sean Patrick:"

- Staten Island #NY11 drawn in w/ Lower Manhattan
- New maj-min #NY02 on Long Island
- #NY27 Jacobs (R) merged w/ #NY23 Reed (R)
- #NY22 Tenney (R) put in a D-leaning seat
- #NY03 crosses Long Island Sound
More highlights of the Maloney plan submitted via public comment to NY's redistricting site:

- #NY16 Bowman (D) goes from Bronx to rural Dutchess
- #NY17 Jones (D) goes to the Catskills
- #NY19 Delgado (D) goes to Ithaca/Binghamton
- #NY25 Morelle (D) picks up Buffalo suburbs Image
Read 4 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
NEW YORK: strategists I've spoken w/ tell me strong census numbers in NYC could help Dems purge as many as *five* of the eight GOP seats in the state.

In the hypothetical below, Dems would gerrymander the current 19D-8R map (left) into as brutal as a 23D-3R rout (right).
In the scenario above, only three Rs would be spared: Reps. Andrew Garbarino #NY02, Elise Stefanik #NY21 and Chris Jacobs #NY23.

Every Dem incumbent would get a double digit Biden seat (including Maloney #NY18 & Delgado #NY19).
A close-up view of NYC in the above scenario: Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R)'s #NY11 would take on Red Hook, Sunset Park & parts of Park Slope and flip from Trump +11 to Biden +10.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)'s #NY14 would absorb some GOP parts of Westchester.
Read 4 tweets
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
NEW YORK: given what's happening elsewhere in redistricting, it's tough to imagine Dems holding onto the House without aggressively gerrymandering NY (and bypassing the state's new commission).

I basically see two likely scenarios for Dems in NY. A brief thread...
First: the maximally aggressive play would be to try to convert the current 19D-8R map to 23D-3R. The example below eliminates Reed's #NY23 and flips #NY01 Zeldin, #NY11 Malliotakis and #NY22 Tenney from Trump to Biden 10+ districts.
In this scenario, Dems' approach to #NY24 Katko is a bit of a bank shot. The goal would be to dislodge Katko from his Syracuse base enough to make him vulnerable in a primary from the right, but keep #NY24 blue enough that Dems could win it in the general.
Read 8 tweets
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͏Postcards4USA
@postcards4USA
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͏Postcards4USA
@postcards4USA
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print & Share!) & Links to Follow & Support!
#PostcardsforAmerica
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ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
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͏Postcards4USA
@postcards4USA
Check it out!
THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates!
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ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
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#Congress2020 #Senate2020
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͏Postcards4USA
@postcards4USA
All hands on deck!
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Update Sep 12
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͏Postcards4USA
@postcards4USA
Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
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Craig Caplan
@CraigCaplan
.@RepDonBacon (R-#NE02): "This (USPS) Bill was not perfect, but the critical role the postal service plays in our country and the fact the postal system will become insolvent next year led me to vote in support." bacon.house.gov/news/documents…
.@RepBost (R-#IL12): "While Congress approved additional funding today with my support, I still share President Trump’s concerns over the process in place for counting an unprecedented number of votes by mail." bost.house.gov/media-center/p…
Rep. @VernBuchanan (R-#FL16): "Millions of Americans, especially seniors, depend on a healthy and functioning Postal Service. I voted for the bill today to make sure the Postal Service has the resources to deliver the mail."
Read 17 tweets
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Stephen Beban
@StephenBeban
Improved Dave's #Redistricting App brings me joy! (Gratefully anticipating post-2020). @davesredist @mikemathieu #ElectionTwitter 1/27

@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
gardow.com/davebradlee/re…
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Read 27 tweets
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Brian S. Brown
@briansbrown
The R's that betrayed us on #InEqualityAct
@SusanWBrooks (#IN05) R+9
@MarioDB (#FL25) R+4
@RepBrianFitz (#PA01) R+1
@HurdOnTheHill (#TX23) R+1
@RepJohnKatko (#NY24) D+3
@RepTomReed (#NY23) R+6
@RepStefanik (#NY21) R+4
@repgregwalden (#OR02) R+11
@RepJenniffer (#PR) Sponsor
#NewYork, you've got some splainin to do. Three NY R's on this list.

It's critical that three things happen.

1. Stop this insanity in the Senate. Sign petition actright.com/petition/534

2. Tweet these reps your thoughts on their support for #InequalityAct

3. #Primaries
I can't believe that good Republicans won't stand up in these districts to launch primaries. A betrayal of this magnitude requires defeat. It's that simple. And don't try the, "What if you weaken them and a D wins." Nothing worse than an R that betrays core principles.
Read 3 tweets
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postcardsforAmerica
@postcards4USA
New York #NY #Midterms2018
THREAD of All Democratic Candidates with Websites, Twitter
& Voter Info Links
#NY01 #NY02 #NY03 #NY04 #NY05 #NY06 #NY07 #NY08 #NY09 #NY10 #NY11 #NY12 #NY13 #NY14 #NY15 #NY16 #NY17 #NY18 #NY19 #NY20 #NY21 #NY22 #NY23 #NY24 #NY25 #NY26 #NY27
#VoteBlueNY
Democratic Candidate for Governor of New York
Andrew Cuomo
andrewcuomo.com
@andrewcuomo
vs GOP Marc Molinaro
#VoteBlueNY #Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
Democratic Candidate for Lt Governor of New York
Kathy Hochul
kathyhochul.com
@KathyHochul
vs GOP Julie Killian
#VoteBlueNY #Midterms2018
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Apply for Absentee Ballot by November 5
Read 38 tweets
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postcardsforAmerica
@postcards4USA
New York #Midterms2018
THREAD of All Democratic Candidates with Website & Twitter Links.
Plus Voter Info Links
#NY01 #NY02 #NY03 #NY04 #NY05 #NY06 #NY07 #NY08 #NY09 #NY10 #NY11 #NY12 #NY13 #NY14 #NY15 #NY16 #NY17 #NY18 #NY19 #NY20 #NY21 #NY22 #NY23 #NY24 #NY25 #NY26 #NY27
Hey #NewYork
VOTE on NOVEMBER 6, 2018
THREAD below of All Democratic Candidates
#Midterms2018
Links to their websites & Twitter.
Plus Voter Info Links ( Registration, Absentee & Poll Worker
But, ALSO,
VOTE on SEPTEMBER 13 in #PrimaryElections for State & Local Offices
#VoteBlue
VOTER REGISTRATION in #NewYork
Register Online here: voterreg.dmv.ny.gov/MotorVoter/
Fillable form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…
Send to County Boards of Election elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Request an Application to be mailed to you: elections.ny.gov/VoterReg/Voter…
#Midterms2018
#VoteBlue

THREAD
Read 32 tweets
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postcardsforAmerica
@postcards4USA
Hey #NewYork #NY
You need to REGISTER by FRIDAY, JUNE 1st!
to VOTE in your JUNE 26th #PrimaryElection
THREAD below of ALL Democratic Candidates
#Midterms2018
Links to their websites & Twitter.
Plus Voter Info Links
(including Voter Registration, Absentee & being a Poll Worker)
VOTER REGISTRATION in #NewYork
Register Online here: voterreg.dmv.ny.gov/MotorVoter/
Fillable form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…
Send to County Boards of Election elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Request an Application to be mailed to you: elections.ny.gov/VoterReg/Voter…
#Midterms2018
#VoteBlue
ABSENTEE VOTING in #NewYork
#Absentee #NY
Deadline to apply for JUNE 26, 2018 #PrimaryElection
is JUNE 25
Online Fillable Form here: elections.ny.gov/NYSBOE/downloa…

Send or Deliver to elections.ny.gov/CountyBoards.h…
Military? elections.ny.gov/VotingMilitary…

#Midterms2018 #VoteBlue

THREAD
Read 32 tweets

Related hashtags

#PA2 #TX17 #MO3 #VA9 #NY21 #MI2 #NY1 #NY16 #FL13 #MA2 #ID2 #OR1 #WI5 #IN8 #MD8 #TN2 #NY25 #TX5 #WA1 #OH11 #TX4 #TX31 #OH9 #NC3

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