Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #NoDeal

Most recents (24)

Farmers face the biggest Brexit hit and still they don’t think they need to worry! THREAD
In a grim report published on Friday, the #government Agricultural, Horticultural and Development Board @TheAHDB predicted that post-Brexit #farming incomes would fall by 25%. @FarmingUK /1
This wasn’t just in an apocalyptic #NoDeal scenario. If it was, farmers seeing this figure could mutter Project Fear and carry on their arduous work. The problem is that this collapse occurs IN ANY BREXIT SCENARIO @bbcfarmingtoday. /2
It is no exaggeration that entire enterprises, for example poultry production, could be unviable if the AHDB predictions are correct as @RCorbettMEP notes. This is a problem because, in Shropshire @BBCShropshire poultry accounts for 86% of all cattle and livestock. /3
Read 21 tweets
Vamos explicar un poco el registro del 'Settlement Scheme' y aclarar algunos términos y plazos #DentroHilo
Es obligatorio registrarse en el 'Settlement Scheme'. Para ello las autoridades británicas han sacado una app llamada: 'EU Exit: ID Document Check'.

Será necesario realizarlo con un dispositivo Android 6.0 o superior y que disponga de NFC (lo que permite paga con contactless)
La aplicación solicitará pruebas de identidad, de residencia (normalmente con el NIN es suficiente) y habrá que responder un par de preguntas sobre antecedentes penales. Además solicitará el escaneo del pasaporte, del chip, del rostro y la realización de una foto.
Read 6 tweets
@theresa_may It's clear this is a BREXIT-BETRAYAL
History will not be kind to those MP's who think this BETRAYAL is better than #NoDeal
Remaining part of the EU is not a solution. You have to fight an election. #NODEAL - WALK AWAY
@theresa_may There is a difference between compromise and surrender.
History will not be kind to those MP's who think this BETRAYAL is better than #NoDEAL
Remaining part of the EU, Staying in customs union, closely aligned to a single market is not leaving the EU.
@theresa_may A 2nd Vote means democracy is broken. Anyone claiming the legitimacy of the 1st vote was not valid, is setting president that any referendum result can be ignored if you dont like the result. It makes a mockery of referendums and a mockery of democracy.
Read 11 tweets
#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.


You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

Read 92 tweets
Amid speculation that Varadkar is under pressure from Macron & Merkel to manage a harder @BorderIrish in a #NoDeal, let's recall UK govt's own 'solution' = effectively to have no controls NI/IRL & *more* GB/NI.

Who can think that serious, responsible, sustainable or good for NI?
Outside the EU with #NoDeal, @BorderIrish separates the UK from the EU's customs union & single market. New rules apply.
As any parent knows, rules are there for a reason. Ignoring them does not make them irrelevant. It exposes you to risk & makes you an awkward pain in the ass.
Q. How to manage this if applying the rules also brings risks?
A. Adjust the rules.

This can't be done unilaterally [pointless for a 2-sided border].
#Backstop = an example. Flexibility on both sides means that having as few controls as poss. NI/IRL & GB/NI is *within* the rules
Read 3 tweets
"Deal or #NoDeal, that is the question." opens @MichelBarnier in our Breakfast Policy Briefing on the state of play on #Brexit.
"If the @HouseofCommons does not vote in favor of the agreement:
or ➡️extension of #Article50." explains @MichelBarnier at our Breakfast Polict Briefing.

"Then it is the responsability of the UK government to choose."
"We already have a deal, the one agreed on in november 2018." reminds @MichelBarnier our attentive audience.

"If the UK still want to leave in an ordely manner, this agreement is the only one." #Brexit
Read 9 tweets
"The [#ECJ] has ruled that a revocation should be "unequivocal & unconditional", suggesting that the ECJ would take a dim view of any attempt to [#RevokeArticle50] & then resubmit it..." But @joannaccherry says we can resubmit if we act in good faith.…
Here's a thread with several links to what @joannaccherry has said in the House of Commons about our unilateral sovereign right to #RevokeArticle50 and perhaps to resubmit later if we so choose:
There is a massive irony in this whole question. #Brexit was seen as a way to 'free' a 'subject' UK from the #EU. But #Article50 recognizes that each member state of the EU is an independent state with a sovereign right to decide in its own constitutional way to leave the EU.
Read 7 tweets
Great one by @tconnellyRTE on the NI border under #nodeal #Brexit /1…
The UK has published its NI border plan which broadly speaking consist of ignoring the border but there was always a question of what the EU would do. The EU has also been preparing for this scenario /2
Seems like the approach, at least initially, will be similar. To wave goods through, without anyone at the border to do the actual waving through. Any checks/controls will be applied gradually and inland. These plans will obv. not be announced as long as the debate goes on. /3
Read 12 tweets
More Old Bailey Sophistry from Codpiece Cox admitting that in order that today's vote is NOT an attempt to repeat #MV2 (to comply with Speaker Bercow's re-iteration of 1604 convention) it is also NOT a #MV in sense of #EUWA18 Section 13.1.b

#BBCpc #EUWAdebate #VictoriaLIVE #LBC
Attempt by Codpiece Cox to scare House into voting in a #MeaninglessVote for #WA (only) solely to secure the offered (actually only technical) extension of #BrexitDay from Apr 12 to May 22 sans guarantee of any other extension. Sophistry.

#BBCpc #EUWAdebate #VictoriaLIVE #LBC
Of course, if the House falls for Codpiece Cox's scare tactics, none of this will figure in future utterances by #TheresaMay's #Brexihadis - the headlines will scream 'Parliament approves #Brexit arrangements' (sans qualification or caveat).

#BBCpc #EUWAdebate
#VictoriaLIVE #LBC
Read 29 tweets
Since the CU option lost #indicativevotes by the smallest margin, a short one on customs unions and borders including the NI border /1
CUs don’t remove the need for customs formalities. They can facilitate and streamline but not necessarily. This is normal as in order to use preferential tariffs under an FTA or CU you normally need to jump through more hoops than when paying full rates. /2
You need to show you’re eligible for these “discounts”. Under CU you need to demonstrate that the goods have either been produced/manufactured in the CU or have been customs cleared (duty paid) /3
Read 15 tweets
Perché il rischio di No Deal (cioè un'uscita brutale e senza accordo di Londra dall'Ue) è ancora molto alto per il Regno Unito e i motivi per cui la #Brexit potrebbe avere questo incredibile, "distruttivo" epilogo. Provo a spiegarlo nei prossimi tweet.
1. Per essere chiari, non dico che sia l'ipotesi più probabile al momento. Ma il rischio #NoDeal cresce sempre di più, giorno dopo giorno, e non soltanto perché passa il tempo. Il problema è che potrebbero esserci presto tutte le condizioni per cui possa avverarsi.
2. Chiariamo: dopo l'ultimo consiglio europeo, Londra ha ottenuto un rinvio della vecchia scadenza del 29 marzo, ora diventata il 12 aprile. Entro questa data, il Regno Unito deve assolutamente decidere che cosa fare, per un motivo molto semplice.
Read 28 tweets
Help me out here Twitter: does #HMRC recognising EU27 EORI numbers under #nodeal or actually even a deal scenario make any sense?

I've not dealt with CHIEF for a while so maybe I'm missing something here /1

You were always able to import into the UK from outside the EU using a non-GB EORI number. But thanks to a glitch in the CHIEF system which doesn’t recognise other EORIs, you were not able to recover import VAT in the normal way via the C79 form. /2
So you had to use other, more complicated ways. No under #nodeal if firms use a non-GB EORI number and all movements from the EU will be imports and import VAT applies it makes no sense to use a non-GB EORI. Or has this now been fixed/we're hoping CDS will finally be ready? /3
Read 4 tweets
Trying to understand Gov’s logic behind NI “solution”. Here goes: we accept that goods form Ir otherwise subject to UK tariffs (~agri) will be shipped via NI tariff free. This is calculated into the system and is a backdoor into UK market for goods where tariffs apply /1
We acknowledge that other EU exporters (continental EU) might wish to trans-ship via I/NI. Some 3rd countries as well (e.g. agri goods already #customs cleared in the EU). But we're hoping this will be limited due to logistics (amount and capacity of transport lanes)? /2
We're removing checks unilaterally to put the EU in the position where when they want to protect the integrity of SM they will need to be the ones applying tariffs and checks to the politically charged NI border /3
Read 5 tweets
The UK has published its approach to cross-border movement of goods in N.Ireland under a No Deal scenario, as the PM promised after the WA defeat on Tuesday.

Here's a short thread on what it means.

TL;DR: out of sight, out of mind [pun intended]
First, ‘unilateral’ border measures are a bit of a misnomer (2 sides to a border!)
Uncertainty persists without detail from IRL side.

If goods coming into NI are subject to no tariffs but those going out are, NI exporters & producers have had legs cut out from under them.
Second, it is emphasised that this is a ‘temporary measure’.
The all-too-familiar question then is, how do you get out of it?
The Protocol on NI/IRL had review & arbitration mechanisms + the right to suspend provisions etc.
This has none of that.
Talk about ‘indefinite’…
Read 11 tweets
We are not ready for #nodeal. No one is ready. Whatever the outcome of the next two votes, we’re not ready for 29th.

Borders aren’t ready. Traders aren’t ready. Brokers aren’t ready. Gov certainly isn’t ready... longer one /1
Borders. We have TSPs for imports to the UK via roro ports– with traders needing to sign up. Minimum formalities at the border with supplementary declarations later. In practice no one knows how exactly will this work and whether it will actually help to speed things up /2
We have the French #customs system which relies on their IT working as well as traders pre-lodging customs declarations. Not been tested and again, not sure if it will work. Or even at which point VAT and other duties become due (guarantees ? etc). /3
Read 17 tweets
Important. French #customs announce a new smart border in Calais and Channel Tunnel in prep for #Briext.

What is it, what it definitely isn’t and what’s smart about it? /1…
It’s a way to speed up the checks in case of #nodeal. On the way in and out of France (exports/imports). Similar to how transit procedure works currently /2
What it is?
1) Way to submit customs docs online before arriving at the border
2) Hopefully, a way to speed up border/customs checks
1) Different lanes for vehicles that need/don’t need checks

Read 10 tweets
The dept for exiting EU (DExEU) estimate that an #nodeal Brexit will cost the UK £158bn per year. That’s £3bn per WEEK. Dwarfs the “£350m per week” we were supposed to save.

Good work, lads. Thanks a bunch.

But never mind the cost, you say. Think of the benefits!

🥳 2,800,000 jobs lost!

🤪Abandoning our controls on food safety!

🤩Getting worse deals with Japan and the USA due to our weakened bargaining power! Hooray!
🥰 And we are projected to lose another £13bn per year on "the administrative burden on businesses from customs declarations alone".

Let that one sink in for a moment. Same as the net amount we spend on EU contributions. On administration ALONE.

Read 4 tweets
🚨More #nodeal advice🚨

Following the Government's admission yesterday that it hasn't got the message out to businesses about what they need to do, they've published more info on what no deal would mean for services providers…
Inside the single market (and during any transition), services companies in the UK can provide their services across the whole EU. With no deal, that won't be the case:

- they'll need to comply with national regulations in each EU country they want to operate in
- they may face restrictions on ownership

- they may need visas to provide services in the EEA

- they may need to change how they handle EU data
Read 5 tweets
➡️Cohen & Russian mob framing @POTUS
➡️Ukrainian Mob HUGE donations #ClintonFoundation
➡️Cohen's father in law Shusterman born #Ukraine
➡️Ukrainian gov officials tried to help HRC undermine Trump
➡️Cohen, Podesta, Manafort, Clinton, Viktor Pinchuk #WitchHunt

@GenFlynn #QAnan
➡️Former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen disbarred in New York
➡️Mr. Trump slammed Cohen on Tuesday, saying he was “lying” as part of the investigation to reduce his allotted prison time #NoDeal
➡️Cohens ties to Clinton, Podesta…
@GenFlynn #QAnon @POTUS #WWG1WGA
➡️The Real Collusion:Cohen,Podesta,Clinton,Russian Mob setting up @POTUS
➡️Cohen was Clinton's Lawyer
➡️Cohen's company, Essential Consultants, allegedly received a $500,000 payment from a company connected to Russian oligarch&Putin
➡️Connections to Dems Clintons
@GenFlynn #QAnon
Read 9 tweets
The biggest trap - on both the EU & UK sides - as contingency measures are adopted is to assume that this will make #NoDeal manageable. These measures are limited, will not last lg, and neither adopting them nor recruiting a bunch of customs officials is enough to be ready 1/
The UK myth of a 'managed #NoDeal ' & the EU myth of 'we're better prepared & it will hurt us less so we're alright' are both extremely dangerous. Adopting a few - welcome - but tporary simplifications & waivers or just repeating like a broken record that 'the UK will be... 2/
treated like a 3rd ctry' is shortsighted and naive. #NoDeal cannot be turned into an acceptable outcome, not least because the belief that contingencies & briefings provided are sufficient for industry is wrong. All these processes & principles need to pass the test of reality 3/
Read 4 tweets
Look, it's great that #HMRC have announced a 6 month postponement of the safety and security declaration requirement. Another simplification for UK importers under #NoDeal. And yes, it will make importing significantly simpler /1
These simplifications will make things easier for eligible importers- and any easement is a good thing. Especially as UK businesses had to cope with disruptive uncertainty over the last 2.5 years /2
This is obviously only a partial solution as the EU is not obliged and unlikely to reciprocate with any simplifications of their own. So UK companies will still need to get up to speed with #customs procedures making them, at least in the short term, reliant on brokers /3
Read 8 tweets
A #Brexit extension is “almost inevitable”
- Nicola Sturgeon to me earlier @FRANCE24

Scottish First Minister wants Labour’s Corbyn to
“get off the Brexit fence & put his weight behind [...] something that would break the deadlock”
#Scotland #SNP #F24
2/ Sturgeon on Theresa May:

“she should change her approach... 1st thing she should do is request an extension to #Article50

“My preference then would go back to the people in another referendum- bcs people have so much more information now than in 2016”#Brexit #F24
Nicola Sturgeon accuses both Theresa May & Jeremy Corbyn of
“probably trying to run the clock down as much as [each other] in all this.”
#Brexit #Article50 #PeoplesVote #F24 🇬🇧🇪🇺
Read 7 tweets
Shocked to see such a disingenuous story. If you had done your homework @DavidWooding @DominicRaab you would know that: 1. There's nothing secret about this, the contingency proposals were published on 19 Dec 2018; 2. It's not a deal but a set of unilateral temporary measures 1/
These measures cld be revoked unilaterally without much warning; 3. It's not agreed yet, @Europarl_EN & the Council need to agree & haven't even met yet, 1st meeting is tomorrow ; 4. The unilateral measures will expire after 1 year for aviation & 9 months for road transport 2/
While there's plenty of precedent for stand alone aviation deals, the EU refuses pt blank to consider a long term haulage agreement for aft the contingency expires. There's no solution for road haulage aft this year. Not great when you have to sign multi-annual ctracts 3/
Read 7 tweets
What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
Read 23 tweets

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