Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Tx31

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A rundown of how much TX GOP's proposed map would shore up nine of their own incumbents who badly need it:

#TX02 Crenshaw: Trump +1 to Trump +23
#TX03 Taylor: Trump +1 to Trump +15
#TX06 Ellzey: Trump +3 to Trump +20
#TX10 McCaul: Trump +2 to Trump +20
Continued...

#TX21 Roy: Trump +3 to Trump +20
#TX22 Nehls: Trump +1 to Trump +15
#TX23 Gonzales: Trump +2 to Trump +7
#TX24 Van Duyne: Biden +5 to Trump +12
#TX31 Carter: Trump +3 to Trump +20
The reason I was mildly surprised: Republicans could have drawn #TX03, #TX22 & #TX24 to be even redder.

All three GOP seats moved 25+ pts left between 2012 and 2020, and as proposed they could easily be vulnerable again by the middle of the 2020s.
Read 3 tweets
Texas Republicans' proposed congressional map is up and analyzed on the @FiveThirtyEight redistricting tracker: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
@FiveThirtyEight The map shores up #TX07, #TX28, #TX32, and #TX34 for Dems and adds a new solid-blue #TX37 in Austin. In exchange, #TX02, #TX03, #TX06, #TX10, #TX21, #TX22, #TX23, #TX24, and #TX31 are made safer for their Republican incumbents.
Dem Rep. Vicente Gonzalez's #TX15 also becomes a bit redder, but still a tossup, under this map. I wonder if he moves over to the safe blue #TX34, whence Rep. Filemon Vela is retiring. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
Wow. This isn't even as aggressive a map as I expected from Texas Rs. It could plausibly be 24R-14D, w/ the chance Rs add seats in the Rio Grande Valley & Dems gain in DFW burbs over the course of the 2020s.
A few early highlights/impressions:
- a new Dem #TX37 in Austin
- a new GOP #TX38 in Houston (for Wesley Hunt?)
- no new Hispanic majority seat (lawsuit?)
- #TX15 Gonzalez (D) made redder
- #TX03 Taylor (R) & #TX24 Van Duyne (R) not shored up quite as much as I'd have expected
Another surprise: this GOP proposal doesn't shore up #TX21 Rep. Chip Roy (R) by nearly as much as it could have. He's still got a chunk of Travis Co.

The much bigger winners: #TX02 Crenshaw, #TX10 McCaul, #TX22 Nehls, #TX25 Williams, #TX31 Carter.
Read 6 tweets
Proposed Texas congressional map is out: data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/cf8703… #txlege
The two new seats go to the Austin and Houston areas
.@RepMcCaul loses Harris County in #TX10
Read 16 tweets
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Check it out!
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Read 51 tweets
Thread of progressive candidates (Updated 9/30) including #NotMeUs and some combo #NotMeUs + #YangGang! These are candidates in competitive races (🔺@GOP ; 🔹Dem; 🌻Green ▫️other Independent) & I’ll be adding to (sometimes editing) thread #Election2020 
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
@Bradshaw2020🔹is an amazing candidate who won a shocking victory @USSenate primary #TN! Gen Against @BillHagertyTN🔺! Endorsed by @BernieSanders! #NotMeUs #Election2020 
📌Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/marquit…
📌Volunteer: mobilize.us/bradshawforsen…
📌Website: marquitabradshaw.com
Read 38 tweets
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Read 51 tweets
We have 44 days until the general election! This thread will have a list of vetted candidates who support Medicare For All & a Green New Deal! Let's flip the Senate Progressive & Expand the Squad in Congress! Please Donate or Volunteer! #FlipTheSenate #ExpandTheSquad

⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
.@paulajean2020 is running for Senate in WV against Shelley Moore Capito. While being blacked out by the media, Paula Jean has a real shot of Winning this Senate Seat. She's endorsed by the sunrise movement & Bernie Sanders along with many others! paulajean.com
.@Bradshaw2020 is running for Senate in Tennessee. She won her primary with a surprising upset & now is ready to bring an upset to the General too. She's endorsed by the Sunrise movement, @marwilliamson, Elizabeth Warren & many more. marquitabradshaw.com
Read 34 tweets
All hands on deck!
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Update Sep 12
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Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
Pages on the #PostcardsforAmerica website with all Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
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& follow @NDLB2020 Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
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Read 50 tweets
[THREAD]

Cori Bush defied the odds and defeated a political dynasty.

Jamaal Bowman won with 55.4%

We’ve had so many historic progressive wins, but it doesn’t end here! Let’s get progressives like those listed below in office!
Screw “Blue Wave”, lets make a #ProgressiveFlood!
1. @EdMarkey
Running for Senate: #Massachusetts

Supports: the Green New Deal and Medicare For All

His primary Election Day is September 1st

#ProgressiveFlood

For more info go to: edmarkey.com
2. @AlexBMorse
District: #MA01

Supports: Medicare For All, Universal Basic Income, $15 Minimum Wage, Cancel Student Debt, and Free College Tuition.

His primary Election Day is September 1st.

#ProgressiveFlood

For more info go to: alexmorseforcongress.com
Read 98 tweets
Dear Bell County Judge Blackburn

Have you ever intubated a patient?

Have you ever stood by the bedside watching your patient struggled to breathe as their lungs filled with fluid?

#TX31
Have you ever had them try to yank your hands away as you try to save them with a breathing tube and a ventilator? Have you ever had to tie their hands to the bed rails to keep them from pulling their breathing tube out?

#TX31
Have you ever watched them die anyway, even after you did every damn thing you could to keep them alive? Do you know how much worse it is when you don’t even have the tools to try save them?

No?

Maybe you should listen to those of us who have.

#TX31
Read 5 tweets
NEW at @CookPolitical: 10 rating changes (7 towards Ds, 3 towards Rs) as Democrats' edge in the battle for the House grows...
Basically, #COVID19 has all but frozen House recruitment & severely curtailed fundraising. That's an advantage for incumbents & bad news for upstates.

At end of 2019, median House D in a Trump district had $1.8 million cash on hand while median leading R challenger had $247,000.
Today, we've moved four freshman Dems out of Toss Up based on the weakness of their GOP opposition:

#IL14 Lauren Underwood (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
#MI08 Elissa Slotkin (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
#NY19 Antonio Delgado (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
#UT04 Ben McAdams (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
Read 6 tweets
I appreciate my opponent in #TX31 taking a moment to address concerns about #Coronavirus; however, his article misses the mark in discussing why there is real concern within the medical community.

1/8

statesman.com/opinion/202003…
First of all, no one has asserted that the President has defunded the CDC.

But what @JudgeCarter fails to mention is that the President *did* dismantle the US Pandemic Response team to save money. That is the applicable issue here.

2/8
Pandemic response teams are *necessary* on an on-going basis to address issues like Ebola, pandemic flu seasons, and in our current case, #Coronavirus.

3/8
Read 8 tweets
There's some great news re: down ballot races in TX.

Texas? Yes, TX is competitive for #NotMeUs & Our Bern-effect is real.

Last nite was rough but we need to Fight On!

Here are some highlights from TX.
BIG WIN HERE.
@AdrBell rec'd 62% in #TX14 to move on to Gen Election for a rematch against GOP incumbent.

This is a chance to flip Red to #ProgBlue and expand Progressive Representation in The House.

She'll need grassroots funding to beat the GOPer.

secure.actblue.com/donate/bellweb…
In #TX10 @SiegelForTexas placed 1st in Dem Primary & that's something we can ALL celebrate.

Mike got 44% so he faces a runoff May 26 against 2nd place finisher who had 33%.

In the GE Mike will face GOP incumbent for a chance to flip to #ProgBlue.

secure.actblue.com/donate/siegel-…
Read 11 tweets
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Read 27 tweets
Turning Texas Blue and the Consequences for America.

A thread.

I'm Donna Imam, a Computer Engineer from Austin Texas running for US Congress in the northern suburbs of Austin Williamson and Bell Counties aka #TX31. Here’s “Why I’m Running for Congress”: votefordonna.com/why
Why should you care? Because this district #TX31 is 2.9% from flipping BLUE.

Why does that matter? Texas is gerrymandered and this district has been red from its inception. In 2018 Williamson County already went BLUE. As an engineer and emerging tech researcher I got curious.
So I spent the last 6 months researching this district myself personally and what I found was astounding!

Texas Democrats are politically disengaged. They do not believe that Texas can be BLUE, or their vote could matter, so they stay home and don’t show for primary elections
Read 11 tweets
Huge news for Dems: Rep. Will Hurd (R) to retire in 2020. He's probably the only R capable of holding the seat. #TX23 moves from Toss Up to Lean D at @CookPolitical.
@CookPolitical Texodus? After Olson & Hurd, attention shifts to GOP Reps. Mike McCaul in #TX10, Kenny Marchant in #TX24, John Carter in #TX31, who also won by skin of their teeth in 2018. This could get out of hand for Rs.
@CookPolitical Hurd is one of just 3 remaining House Rs in districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, the House's only black Republican, and is now the sixth Republican - and the third from TX - to announce retirement plans in the past ten days.
Read 3 tweets
Today, @JudgeJohnCarter held his first Town Hall meeting in years. Maybe his motivation was that he almost lost his seat in 2018. Who knows. Anyway, it was barely publicized and was not on his FB page or website. We found out about it by chance. #TX31 1/10
We had no problems getting in and asking our questions. Here are a few highlights. 2/10
1st question was on for-profit prisons, CoreCivic, etc. including why he took PAC money from those groups. Seemed upset by the suggestion and defended ICE detention centers as “safe”. Went off the rails and mentioned that he was against marijuana because it’s illegal. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
BREAKING: After flipping FORTY seats from red to blue in 2018, we've officially got our sights set on THIRTY-THREE more -- and we're ready to get to work!

Take a look at our first offensive battlefield of the 2020 cycle:
Our Chair @CheriBustos is keeping her promises and wasting no time by working to expand our Democratic House Majority.
Presidential approval polls in 2020 are shaping up to be a lot like 2008 -- when Democrats continued the blue wave from the midterm. History is on our side, which means Democrats are poised to expand our House Majority even further. fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-2…
Read 8 tweets
Now that @BetoORourke has almost $40 million fundraised, it's high time he actually put it to use.

He already has a great ground game. Now get on TV and correct the narrative. Take out huge blocks of airtime. Both positive AND negative ads.
There are several Cowboys games that will take place between now and the election. @BetoORourke should drop a ton of ads during those games.

He should focus ads heavily on competitive districts. #TX07. #TX21. #TX31. #TX32. A blitz of Spanish-language ads in #TX23.
Hell, with this kind of money @BetoORourke should be able to rent fleets of buses to go into poor, minority neighborhoods and shuttle people to the polls for free on every day of early voting.

He doesn't need to prioritize anymore. He can do it all. He should do it all.
Read 4 tweets
Holy crap. The new Sabato Crystal Ball House ratings change is...big.

This is the first time the Crystal Ball has given Democrats better than 50/50 odds of taking the House. And there is a LOT to unpack here.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Here are Sabato's topline changes.

5 races are no longer Safe R: #IA04, #IN02, #IN09, #PA16, #TX31

3 races shift from Likely R to Lean R: #AR02, #FL16, #NM02

9 more R seats are now Tossups: #IA03, #IL06, #KY06, #MI08, #OH01, #OH12, #TX07, #WV03

And #FL13 is now Safe D.
Here are a few takeaways:

-White nationalist Rep. Steve King has a credible challenge
-IN and WV have competitive House races (and the extra attention from Ds could help their senators here)
-#OH12 special is REALLY close
-Dem women vets (McGrath, Hegar) are kicking ass.
Read 3 tweets
We'll know soon enough, but I think this take will quickly be proven wrong re: @mjhegar's #TX31 viral ad: texastribune.org/2018/06/25/vir…
My personal opinion is that this sort of investment was exactly the sort of thing that @mjhegar needed to do in order to gain traction. She has an incredible, literally made-for-Hollywood, life story. Broadcasting it to the world was the best play.

Money well spent.
It's like... have these party operatives even HEARD of @AmyMcGrathKY?
Read 3 tweets

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