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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
#ImpeachmentHearings

Ask @HouseIntel GOPers @DevinNunes #CA22 @ConawayTX11 #TX11 @RepMikeTurner #OH10
If they knew BRIBERY in 18 USC §201(b) is spelled the same way in the impeachment clause of the Constitution– "treason, BRIBERY, or other high crimes and misdemeanors."
#ImpeachmentHearings
Ask @HouseIntel GOPers @RepBradWenstrup #OH02 @RepChrisStewart #UT02 @RepStefanik #NY21
If they knew BRIBERY in 18 USC §201(b) is spelled the same way in the impeachment clause of the Constitution– "treason, BRIBERY, or other high crimes and misdemeanors."
#ImpeachmentHearings
Ask @HouseIntel GOPers @HurdOnTheHill #TX23 @RepRatcliffe #TX04 @Jim_Jordan (Perv Gym) #OH04
If they knew BRIBERY in 18USC §201(b) is spelled the same way in the impeachment clause of the Constitution– "treason, BRIBERY, or other high crimes and misdemeanors"
Read 3 tweets
🚨MY MASTER THREAD of #Midterm2018 results analysis, including an array of data dives. Will the country chose to repudiate president Trump? Health care instead of the wall? RT & strap in, folks, tonight could be a wild ride. We get the first batch of results at around 6 PM ET.
Turnout has looked unprecedented for weeks now. Indications today that it could even beat these lofty expectations. At this point I think I’d buy for pickups in Tossup sub/urban seats like #TX07 #TX32 and #TX26, but sell in more rural districts that have looked like reaches.
Read 82 tweets
Hey #UTAH
Well-Primaried!
Here’s a THREAD of all YOUR Democratic Candidates
#Midterms2018 VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
#UT01 #UT02 #UT03 #UT04
Register online by October 30 here: secure.utah.gov/voterreg/login…
OR at the polls on Election Day
#VoteBlue
VOTER REGISTRATION in #Utah
You can Register to vote at the polls on Election Day
OR Register online here by October 30th: secure.utah.gov/voterreg/login…
Track your Ballot & Find your Polling Place here:
vote.utah.gov/vote/menu/index

#UT01 #UT02 #UT03 #UT04
Democratic Candidate for #UT01
District 1 #Utah

Lee Castillo, Clinical Social Worker
utahisforeverybody.com
@Lee4USCongress

vs GOP Incumbent Rob Bishop (R)

VOTE NOVEMBER 6
#VoteBlue
Read 11 tweets
Hey #UTAH
You get to vote in #PrimaryElections on JUNE 26TH!
Early Voting: June 12-June 22
#UT01 #UT02 #UT03 #UT04
Register online by June 19 here: secure.utah.gov/voterreg/login…
OR at the polls on Election Day
THREAD of all Democratic Candidates
Including Congress, State Senate & House
VOTER REGISTRATION in #Utah
You can Register to vote at the polls on #PrimaryElection Day, June 26, 2018
OR Register online here by June 19th: secure.utah.gov/voterreg/login…
Track your Ballot & Find your Polling Place here:
vote.utah.gov/vote/menu/index
EARLY VOTING in #Utah
#PrimaryElection June 26, 2018
•In-person Early Voting: June 12 - June 22
County Clerks elections.utah.gov/election-resou…
Find Early Voting Locations here: vote.utah.gov/vote/app/early…
Be sure to check your party affiliation at vote.utah.gov/vote/menu/index
#VoteBlue
Read 13 tweets

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