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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
Race: #TX34
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Race: #CA22
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
Big shakeup in DCCC's House battlefield this AM. The committee named 12 challengers to its "Red to Blue" program, added 3 members to its "Frontline" program, added 8 new GOP/Dem districts to its "In Play" list, and removed 6 GOP-held districts from its target list.
Red to Blue challengers:
#CA22: @RudySalasCA
#CA45: @jfchen
#CO07: @pettersen4co
#IA01: @BohannanIowa
#IA02: @LizMathis1
#IL13: @Nikki4Congress
#MI03: @HillaryScholten
#NM02: @Gabe_NM
#NY01: @VoteJackie4NY
#NY11: @MaxRose4NY
#OH01: @votelandsman
#OH13: @EmiliaSykesOH
#CA22: @RudySalasCA
#CA45: @jfchen
#CO07: @pettersen4co
#IA01: @BohannanIowa
#IA02: @LizMathis1
#IL13: @Nikki4Congress
#MI03: @HillaryScholten
#NM02: @Gabe_NM
#NY01: @VoteJackie4NY
#NY11: @MaxRose4NY
#OH01: @votelandsman
#OH13: @EmiliaSykesOH
VP Mike Pence speaks this morning at campaign rally today in Janesville, WI, the hometown of fmr House Speaker Paul Ryan, and later at Montana GOP rally in Belgrade, Montana, where 1st term MT GOP Senator Daines is in a competitive re-election race.c-span.org/video/?475723-… @cspan
Janesville, WI is now represented in the House by 1st term #WI01 GOP Rep. Bryan Steil, who spoke about the recent violence in Kenosha and then introduced VP Pence at the campaign rally there:"President Trump, Vice President Pence and I oppose defunding police and back the badge."
Steil (R-WI): "Vice President Mike Pence may be a Hoosier, but his frequent visits to Wisconsin, have gotten me thinking he's got some Badger pride."
Now endorsed by @BarackObama:
@sharicedavids - #KS03
@JasonCrowCO6 - #CO06
@ElectLong - #WA03
@LucyWins2018 - #GA06
@Carolyn4GA7 - #GA07
@SusanPalmerOH - #OH16
@Axne4Congress - #IA03
@lisa4congress - #WA05
@MaxRose4NY - #NY11
@ChrisPappasNH - #NH01
@Lizzie4Congress - #TX07
@sharicedavids - #KS03
@JasonCrowCO6 - #CO06
@ElectLong - #WA03
@LucyWins2018 - #GA06
@Carolyn4GA7 - #GA07
@SusanPalmerOH - #OH16
@Axne4Congress - #IA03
@lisa4congress - #WA05
@MaxRose4NY - #NY11
@ChrisPappasNH - #NH01
@Lizzie4Congress - #TX07
Obama endorsements cont’d:
@IronStache - #WI01
@DrKimSchrier - #WA08
@ScottWallacePA - #PA01
@nancysoderberg - #FL06
@JahanaHayesCT - #CT05
@Abby4Iowa - #IA01
@BetsyforIL - #IL13
@laurenbaer - #FL18
@golden4congress - #ME02
@ElissaSlotkin - #MI08
@HaleyLive - #MI11
@IronStache - #WI01
@DrKimSchrier - #WA08
@ScottWallacePA - #PA01
@nancysoderberg - #FL06
@JahanaHayesCT - #CT05
@Abby4Iowa - #IA01
@BetsyforIL - #IL13
@laurenbaer - #FL18
@golden4congress - #ME02
@ElissaSlotkin - #MI08
@HaleyLive - #MI11
Obama endorsements cont’d:
@danielfeehan - #MN01
@AngieCraigMN - #MN02
@Clint4Congress - #NV02
@karaforcongress - #NE02
@dana_balter - #NY24
@BetsyRaderOH - #OH14
@LindaForNC - #NC02
@HoulahanForPa - #PA06
@SpanbergerVA07 - #VA07
@JenniferWexton - #VA10
@deanbphillips - #MN03
@danielfeehan - #MN01
@AngieCraigMN - #MN02
@Clint4Congress - #NV02
@karaforcongress - #NE02
@dana_balter - #NY24
@BetsyRaderOH - #OH14
@LindaForNC - #NC02
@HoulahanForPa - #PA06
@SpanbergerVA07 - #VA07
@JenniferWexton - #VA10
@deanbphillips - #MN03
a feature i love about the NYT/Upshot polling project: the little link in each district write-up that takes you to a detailed map with the district outlined nytimes.com/interactive/20…
click on "this interactive map" and you get great context
in #OH01 it's particularly useful because you can see how brutal the gerrymander is here; the city of Cincinnati is cut apart, and a huge almost-entirely-red county gets attached in place of the missing light-blue Cincinnati pieces
Hey #WISCONSIN
Here’s a THREAD all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018!
with photos, Twitter & Websites.
& Voter Info links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
Use wherever helpful.
#VoteBlueWI
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#WI01 #WI02 #WI03 #WI04 #WI05 #WI06 #WI07 #WI08
Here’s a THREAD all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018!
with photos, Twitter & Websites.
& Voter Info links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
Use wherever helpful.
#VoteBlueWI
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#WI01 #WI02 #WI03 #WI04 #WI05 #WI06 #WI07 #WI08
VOTER REGISTRATION in #Wisconsin
Register online myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Register…
Application elections.wi.gov/forms/voters
Send to Municipal Clerk myvote.wi.gov/en-US/MyMunici…
Check Registration here myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Register…
Info here: myvote.wi.gov/en-us/MyVoterI…
Polling Place myvote.wi.gov/en-us/FindMyPo…
Register online myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Register…
Application elections.wi.gov/forms/voters
Send to Municipal Clerk myvote.wi.gov/en-US/MyMunici…
Check Registration here myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Register…
Info here: myvote.wi.gov/en-us/MyVoterI…
Polling Place myvote.wi.gov/en-us/FindMyPo…
Democratic Candidates for #Wisconsin #WI01 #WI1
Randy Bryce
randybryceforcongress.com
@IronStache
Vs GOP Bryan Steil
Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) retiring.
VOTE November 6!
#Midterms2018 #VoteBlueWI #VoteBlue
#wiunion
Randy Bryce
randybryceforcongress.com
@IronStache
Vs GOP Bryan Steil
Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) retiring.
VOTE November 6!
#Midterms2018 #VoteBlueWI #VoteBlue
#wiunion
Get ready to change the world in 3 simple steps:
Follow
Support
Vote
Below is a list of candidates that will be on the Nov. 6th ballot. Please follow their social media accounts, promote their tweets and say their names.
Follow
Support
Vote
Below is a list of candidates that will be on the Nov. 6th ballot. Please follow their social media accounts, promote their tweets and say their names.
Some may not have been your primary favorite. But these candidates might be the only path to take back our democracy. Please support them by making sure everyone knows these names.
If you have more Dems candidates Nov 6 ballot, please post below.
If you have more Dems candidates Nov 6 ballot, please post below.
Ilhan Omar
@ilhanMN
#MN05 #Vote
ilhanomar.com
Randy Bryce - Wisconsin Democrat to replace Paul Ryan
@IronStache
#Ironstache #WI01 #Wisconsin
randybryceforcongress.com
facebook.com/RandyBryce2018
@ilhanMN
#MN05 #Vote
ilhanomar.com
Randy Bryce - Wisconsin Democrat to replace Paul Ryan
@IronStache
#Ironstache #WI01 #Wisconsin
randybryceforcongress.com
facebook.com/RandyBryce2018
Hey #Wisconsin!
#PrimaryElection on AUGUST 14th!
Register online/by mail by July 25th. In-person by August 10th at municipal clerk’s office
THREAD below of your Democratic Candidates & Voter INFO with photos & LINKS.
#WI01 #WI02 #WI03 #WI04 #WI05 #WI06 #WI07 #WI08
#VoteBlue
#PrimaryElection on AUGUST 14th!
Register online/by mail by July 25th. In-person by August 10th at municipal clerk’s office
THREAD below of your Democratic Candidates & Voter INFO with photos & LINKS.
#WI01 #WI02 #WI03 #WI04 #WI05 #WI06 #WI07 #WI08
#VoteBlue
VOTER REGISTRATION in #Wisconsin
Register online myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Register…
Application elections.wi.gov/forms/voters
Send to Municipal Clerk myvote.wi.gov/en-US/MyMunici…
Check Registration here myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Register…
Info here: myvote.wi.gov/en-us/MyVoterI…
Polling Place myvote.wi.gov/en-us/FindMyPo…
Register online myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Register…
Application elections.wi.gov/forms/voters
Send to Municipal Clerk myvote.wi.gov/en-US/MyMunici…
Check Registration here myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Register…
Info here: myvote.wi.gov/en-us/MyVoterI…
Polling Place myvote.wi.gov/en-us/FindMyPo…
Democratic Candidates for #Wisconsin #WI01 #WI1
Randy Bryce
randybryceforcongress.com
@IronStache
Cathy Myers
cathymyersforcongress.com
@CathyMyersWI
Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) retiring.
5 GOP running
VOTE AUGUST 14!
#PrimaryElection #VoteBlue
Randy Bryce
randybryceforcongress.com
@IronStache
Cathy Myers
cathymyersforcongress.com
@CathyMyersWI
Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) retiring.
5 GOP running
VOTE AUGUST 14!
#PrimaryElection #VoteBlue
About to listen to @PollsAndVotes drop some numerical knowledge on Wisconsin’s 2018 elections. #wipolitics
On the left: @judgedallet #scowis victory earlier this month. On the right: @ScottWalker re-elect victory in 2014. Via @PollsAndVotes
.@PollsAndVotes says he talks a lot about party polarization, but points to this chart of WI Supreme Court race outcomes and sees “very substantial variation in outcome” in part based on incumbency
Cathy Myers, Randy Bryce's primary challenger, is being told to "go away" and drop out.
This is exactly why I got so mad when the media normalized sexism when it was directed at Hillary.
Though more women are running than ever before, they're facing the same barriers HRC did.
This is exactly why I got so mad when the media normalized sexism when it was directed at Hillary.
Though more women are running than ever before, they're facing the same barriers HRC did.
I didn't even know that Randy Bryce had a primary challenger until today and I'm always on Twitter and going through the trending news stories.
Where is the national coverage for Cathy Myers? Why isn't her video being shared and praised?
Where is the national coverage for Cathy Myers? Why isn't her video being shared and praised?
I agree with what Diane said here. While I understand that #WI1 has national implications because whoever wins will challenge the Speaker of the House, this primary has become completely one-sided because of national discourse, which is steeped in sexism.
1/10 Like too many women, I know what it's like to prepare, work hard & be successful only to be ignored in favor of a less qualified man
2/10 My primary opponent @IronStache talks over me, changes positions w/o consequence & backed out of our debate kenoshanews.com/political-stoc…
3/10 He's acting like a career politician, but he's a career candidate that has lost 3 elections in the last 5 years, all landslide losses 
