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The Weekly Recap 🧵

Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.

Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.
1. We started the week with discussing our view ahead for markets. Our systematic view is that we are headed towards a stagflationary recession.

2. Re 1, we further contextualised our view by sharing our systematic updates on inflation & growth.

Read 12 tweets
Resilient US Consumer 🧵

1. In April, households saw incomes increase as employment and inflation contributed to nominal incomes. Alongside this increase in employment income, we also saw continued support from income on assets total incomes. Below we show the composition: Image
2. Personal income increased by 0.36% in April, disappointing consensus expectations of 0.4%. This print contributed to a sequential deceleration in the quarterly trend relative to the yearly trend.
3. The primary drivers of this print were Employee Compensation (0.6%) & Income on Assets (0.25%). Over the last year, Employee Compensation (3.36%), Rental Income (0.5%), & Income on Assets (0.96%). have been the primary sources of the 5.43% growth in income.
Read 18 tweets
Rising volume in $XLK, $VTV, and good enough $SMH transparently prepared the ground for improving #ES market breadth – but the one factor that made me reconsider the requisites of the medium-term (bearish) outlook, was this.
Financials.
LONG THREAD 👇
2. Back when I took the MT bearish view (mid Mar), it was well justified as two significant #banks had fallen, $CS was getting back on the radar screen, #deposit outflows continued, and demand for the #Fed emergency programs was rising.
It was questionable whether $KRE and $XLF
3. would stabilize.
The incentives for #deposit outflows were still present (#Fed hadn‘t yielded to market pressures to ease, and still doesn‘t, short-term #yields kept solidly above 5%, #Fed balance sheet kept declining, #M2 and #margin debt shrinking while consumer #inflation
Read 17 tweets
#ES flirted with 4,115 again after that great intraday $HYG reversal portended downside #volatility when cyclicals didn‘t really point higher.
The day ended with a profound deterioration in market breadth and unappealing sectoral overview.
THREAD 👇 ImageImage
2. #tech upswing invited selling interest, while #value and especially $IWM turned strongly south.
#ES though had been relatively resilient given both #manufacturing and #retailsales hits, and today‘s data in #housing weren‘t slated to bring a disaster.
The figures are
3. obviously more optimistic than they would have otherwise been if the #housing market could clear itself by bringing in more supply, which isn‘t though a realistic expectation when #mortgage rates have been locked low in a different era of 2020-2021.
Read 6 tweets
Today’s #CPI report continues to depict #inflation that is just too high for most people’s good, especially the @federalreserve’s.
In fact, the report showed that #inflation remains remarkably sticky, which doesn’t correspond to virtually any practical thinker’s timeline of when it might be expected to start to come down further.
These elevated levels of inflation continue to be remarkably high relative to the many months with which the #economy has now operated with persistently higher #InterestRates.
Read 17 tweets
A week ago, after hearing #ChairPowell’s testimony before Congress, all eyes were set to be on today’s #inflation data, which presumably would help market participants better understand the #FOMC’s policy reaction at its March 22nd meeting.
What a difference a week makes these days! Of course, all eyes are still on today’s data, but now there are many other things we need to consider (such as #FinancialStability concerns), when judging the reaction function of the @federalreserve.
As we have long contended, #markets tend to be fairly myopic and lacking in patience, so having to focus on more than one news item at a time causes tremendous #uncertainty and thus greater market #volatility.
Read 16 tweets
#UncommonSense ..... India has already become an #OVER #TAXED #ECONOMY on the #Consumer considering how such few people pay Income tax, poor people pay GST while Corporates pay very litte.

Combined Center & State Tax to GDP over 18%!! Compare that to China (Next tweet) Image
In china the Tax to GDP is 20%... but important things to understand is (Next tweet) Image
KEY difference b/n India and China is that, in China, 1/4th of the 20% tax goes towards Social Security Contributions (EPF, PF, Insurance, ELSS etc) which in India is termed as Savings and NOT Tax.

Effectively China Tax2GDP is 15% vs 18% in India.

Another Diff (Next Twt) Image
Read 6 tweets
The indicator of current financial conditions (vs. a year ago) bounced from the lows this year. #consumer @dailyshot charts... dailyshotbrief.com
Eurozone: The recent equity market rally has eliminated the excess risk premium over bonds.
Deutsche Bank’s positioning indicator has been nearing its midpoint level.
Read 6 tweets
#capitalism is essentially *backwards* looking. yes, capitalists attempt to pretend that they're the masters of #innovation and advancement of #technology, the builders of the #future, and all that.

it's lies—mere #marketing. capitalists do not like progress or change.

(1/x)
corporate #management and #executive persons want one thing above all others: guaranteed #money. they want *safe bets*. they don't want #competition or #risk; they want a steady source of "passive income" that always goes up and up.

(this causes #inflation, by the way.)

(2/x)
(yes, I know that #capitalism and the #business community, not to mention all #politics and #journalism these days, blame #inflation on the profligate #consumer—but in reality, inflation occurs because capitalists always want *more #money*; it has to come from somewhere.)

(3/x)
Read 18 tweets
As we head into 2023, we at Veritas think the headwinds are getting stronger against the Canadian #banks. Let's look at a few data points in the next series of tweets.

1/15
First, when the Big Six reported their Q4 results early in December, none except $RY saw a #recession coming in the next 12 months in their base case forward looking economic indicators. (RY estimated real GDP growth of negative 0.2%).

2/15
However, notice how much more negative their indicators got between Q3 and Q4 (red means the bank is more negative relative to the other banks and green more positive).

3/15
Read 15 tweets
(1/7) #Bullmarkets are periods of increased #asset values due to regular #price fluctuations. This thread emphasizes on its causes and characteristics. 🐮🧵

Learn More 👇
medium.com/zignaly/llts22…
(2/7) Wage growth, capital inflows, minimal unemployment, strong #consumer spending, and increasing corporate #profits are all factors that lead to sustainable #bullruns. 🐮📈
(3/7) Characteristics of a #BullCycle:
1. Boosted #investor confidence, falling policy rate. 🔝📈
2. More #money being invested in the future by businesses. 💵📈
3. There is a decline in the #unemployment rate. 👨‍💼📉
4. The process of #spending money is more straightforward ⬆💯
Read 7 tweets
(1/12) Understanding mega cap companies helps us understand the broader #market because they have such an outsized impact on the indices people track and invest in. Yesterday we talked about big / ad #tech ( $GOOG $META) and today we are talking #retail.
(2/12) People forget that Walmart $WMT and Amazon $AMZN are the largest companies in the world by sales...

Heck, the US has a massive per capita #GDP thanks in large part to the #consumer / American's buying a lot of stuff.
(3/12) So lets take a look at the state of retail from the top down (macro / economy level) and then from the bottom up (micro / company level)…

We are bottoms up investors, but pay close attention to the macro as an overlay (and just out of interest!).
Read 12 tweets
1. #Travel #Holidays #CabinAirQuality #Aerotoxic

From 2012 to 2021, I worked w/remarkable #campaigners 2secure an #European @Standards4EU 2deliver cleaner & less toxic air 4 #Aircrew & #Passengers

In that period, we suffered derision, insult & indifference, but still we battled
2. #Travel #Holidays #CabinAirQuality #Aerotoxic

My colleagues need to be recognised:

@SusanMichaelis1 @oferralle #JohnGoss #JudithMcJannet #ArieAdriaesen #VincianeCabaret #HalvorErikstein

No one will ever know or u/stand what we endured, but we strove to build bridges
3. #Travel #Holidays #CabinAirQuality #Aerotoxic

But, as with all things standards-making, as we discovered via @Standards4EU, the path was never straight

However, we created the most dynamic draft #Standard seen to date

This document would have changed e/thing on #fumeevents
Read 14 tweets
As we approach the @federalreserve’s monetary policy conference at #JacksonHole this week, a question we’ve been asking ourselves is whether the abundance of survey-based, and goods-oriented, #economic data may be overstating the weakness in the #economy as a whole?
Without question, many broad-based surveys, including those focused on #ConsumerConfidence and small #business optimism, are painting a very bleak picture of the #economic trajectory. Image
And at the same time, many goods/manufacturing sector data points are portending continued significant weakening of the sector. Image
Read 12 tweets
#Indians are #saving more and working longer hours to meet living expenses, says study

businessinsider.in/india/news/ind…

By @karunasharmaa Image
Urban #consumers are putting less money into their piggy banks as #savings have taken a hit due to increasing prices of fuel, food and beverage and massive household bills.

#inflation
For 76% of urban #consumers, the rising cost of living is having an impact on their big plans, said a report.

35% consumers said that their household financial situation is deteriorating and 46% of them believe the general economic outlook of the country is negative.

#inflation
Read 6 tweets
Welcome to the Most Anticipated Recession in History - One data point from the Fed’s officialdom confirms the United States is in a technical recession and heading for a potential hard landing - by @TraderStef #GDP #Recession #DemandDestruction #TaperCaper crushthestreet.com/articles/break… Image
Read 10 tweets
Lay’s, Kurkure and Bingo are taking over Indian #snacks like Aloo Bhujia, Murukku

businessinsider.in/retail/news/la…

By @Krittiiii Image
The changes in customer preference is pitting India’s traditional snacks like Aloo Bhujia, murukku, makhane and more against international brands like Lays, Bingo and Pringles. While this may come off as a comparison of apples and oranges, it does stand true.

#snacks Image
Strong distribution, wide flavour range at varied price points and aggressive promotion are some of the leading drivers for Pepsico and ITC strong portfolio and market dominance.

#snacks Image
Read 8 tweets
𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗔𝗟𝗟 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 🔈

This is a FREE OPPORTUNITY to get direct access to Management Teams from top consumer brands.

As easy as 1,2,3 👇🏽
1/ Event

The upcoming share series is kicking off on Monday, June 27th,

𝔸𝕟𝕕 𝕚𝕥’𝕤 𝕆ℕ𝔼 𝕠𝕗 𝕒 𝕜𝕚𝕟𝕕

The event is a free virtual session, you will be able to tune in from anywhere in the world.

#financetips #investors
2/ Register

This is not something you want to miss #retailinvestor

Reserve your spot by clicking on the link below:

share-series.videoshowcase.net
Read 5 tweets
Every now and then I will make a #thread 🧵 of #threads 🧵 to keep you all updated on the #alpha I shared across time on #Twitter.

Today is the day. I don't know how long this will be.

Let's start with the previous threads🧵of threads🧵
Read 18 tweets
1. #Travel? #Holidays? #COVID19?

So, the finger-jabbing continues

Meantime, I've spoken to #Consumers abt positive experiences @STN_Airport - plenty of staff & well org they tell me, so why is it so different elsewhere?

Then there's other issues....

theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
2. #Travel? #Holidays? #COVID19?

We hear of the remarkable pleading to allow foreign workers to come in under special visas which was refused; a free-movement #Brexit issue; an own goal!

But clearly the discussion has been going on for months

theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
3. #Travel? #Holidays? #COVID19?

In this discussion abt foreign workers & other matters, we discover @GOVUK & #TravelIndustry have had regular meetings w/warnings given

So, @grantshapps release minutes of the meetings & let's see discussions & warnings

theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
Read 8 tweets
@LBC @NickFerrariLBC

Thnx 4opp 2talk abt current #Airport #Airline #Travel chaos; not just UK prob; it extends across #Europe

Many reasons & blame abound but the return to normality was always going 2B problematic.

#Brexit transferred 261/2004 Rights; @CAA_UK should enforce!
2. #Travel? #Holidays? #COVID19? @LBC

Key Q: @GOVUK claim they'd warned #TravelIndustry, concerned that they: "Seriously oversold flights & holidays relative to their capacity".

@grantshapps publish meetings, minutes & warnings; let's see the detail!......
3. #Travel? #Holidays? #COVID19? @LBC @NickFerrariLBC

....It is this use of language, by all parties, that's designed to present their position that creates confusion in #Consumer understanding and indeed their expectations

It's all very good having high expectations, but...
Read 10 tweets
#NIFTY bottom for the year 2022 is near 15400 - 15100

Mostly will get achieved in month on MAY 2022 only.

After #bottom out #TOP for the year 2022 is near 19100 - 19500 which i am expecting before NOVEMBER 2022

For SECTORAL OUTLOOK check out the thread 🧵
Read 12 tweets
It's weekend and it's the end of the month. The #markets are closed.

So there is the perfect time to analyze the #momentum & relative #strength of the markets.

This information is relevant for all #investors, but especially for #trend #followers 📈📈📈

#marketresearch

🧵
The #momentum of the markets are one of the most powerful forces in the evolution of the #asset #prices.

The #reversion to the mean is the opposite force, which is equally powerful. Momentum works on a short and medium term (up to 3 to 5 years).
There is a ton of academic research related to the momentum and the benefits of using it and relative strength. But presenting it this is not the purpose of this #thread.

Relative strength is actually a comparison between the #momentum of two or more #markets.
Read 35 tweets
We are LIVE tweeting the panel discussion “East of Eden: Unleashing the Content Subcontinent” with @ianuragthakur, Bela Bajaria, @MadhuriDixit, @shekharkapur, @saadmohseni and @authoramish

Stay tuned for updates!

#Raisina2022
Join us for the session LIVE here:

#Raisina2022 #RaisinaDialogue #TerraNova
.@ianuragthakur: To exist and to stay relevant, we need hard power and to form relations beyond boundaries, we need #softpower.

#Raisina2022 #culture #content
Read 14 tweets

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