In the latest @CrisisGroup report, issued today, we highlight the dangerous situation brewing in southern #Syria: "Keeping the Calm in Southern Syria". bit.ly/2ytOoQl What's new, why does it matter, and what should be done? Thread.

Having retaken the last rebel-held areas in Syria’s western interior, the regime is turning south. Its forces are massing in preparation for a reconquest of the “de-escalation” zone in the southwest, which is protected by a trilateral agreement between Russia, the US and Jordan.

The SW sits at the intersection of Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan. An offensive to reconquer it could take a terrible civilian toll, destabilise Jordan, and trigger a wider conflict between Israel and Iran, especially if the regime seeks the help of Iran-backed militias.

All sides should seize the opportunity to negotiate a deal for the conditional return of the Syrian state to the southwest and avert a military conclusion that, for all sides and the local population, would be a worse outcome. bit.ly/2ytOoQl