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Michael E. Newton @MichaelENewton1
, 8 tweets, 9 min read Read on Twitter
#Earlyvoting update:
The #Republican share of votes cast so far is +1.0% vs 2016. In contrast, the #Democrat share is -0.1%. In total, the Rep-Dem margin vs 2016 is R+1.10%. So the GOP is doing ~184k early votes better in these 13 states than they did in 2016.
#MAGA #Election2018
#Republicans have lifted their share of the vote from 2016 in 9 of the 13 states. #Democrats have done so in just 7 of the 13. Net, the distribution of votes have moved in the #GOP’s favor in 8 states; to the #Dems in 5.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
The votes continue to roll in from Florida and they continue to favor the Democrats, as expected. As a result, the GOP-Dem margin decreased 0.10% since this afternoon and 0.42% over the last 24 hours.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
The trend toward Dems continues. At R+1.10% with a few days left and ~89% of early votes already cast, it looks like #earlyvoting may finish about R+1.0% as compared to 2016.
#MAGA #Election2018
The #GOP ending #earlyvoting ~1.0% better than they did in 2016 would be remarkable. 2016 was a great year for #Republicans, winning 241 House seats & Presidency. There is no sign of the supposed #bluewave and perhaps a small #redwave might be coming.
#MAGA #Election2018
About 16.7 million people have already cast their ballots in #earlyvoting in just these 13 states alone. This represents about 45% of the projected numbers of votes to be cast in these states and about 15% of the total projected to be cast this election.
#MAGA #Election2018
Interestingly, states with competitive races (AZ, FL, NV, WV) are among those seeing the largest GOP gains. Those with the biggest Dem gains (CO, IA, LA, ME, NC) have fewer or no competitive statewide races.
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
Tomorrow will be a very interesting day as a number of states will be counting 3 days’ worth of mail-in ballot. This might (or might not) change the current R+1.10% gain a considerable amount
#Earlyvoting #MAGA #Election2018
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