, 27 tweets, 10 min read Read on Twitter
GLOBAL MONTHLY UPDATE thread 1/n

Global M.PMI vs Y/Y in relation to world GDP contribution.

dramatic shift towards lower left quad. Expect PBoC stimuli, and why did ECB stop QE ?

#OGMT
2/n Global M.PMI Y/Y heatmap

2011/2012 comes in mind...

#OGMT
3/n Global Macro Snapshot
4/n Global M.PMI breadth

• outright 27M L
• uptick # countries > 50
• 6.5Y L # countries pos Y/Y

#OGMT
5/n ... Global M.PMI DM EM F5

• Global JPM 50.7 31M L
• Global MT 51.7 28M L
• DM 52.9 28M L
• EM 49.7 29M L
• F5 51.5 uptick

#OGMT
6/n Global M.PMI vs EM 1

• PMIs Y/Y new lows
• $ACWI $EEM rebounds
7/n ... Global M.PMI vs EM 2

• Global vs $ACWI
• EM vs $EEM
8/n ... Global M.PMI "world big4"

• US uptick, strong vs RoW
• Euroarea falling off the cliff
• China in contraction
• Japan barely > 50

#GlobalSlowDown continues
FED on pause
ECB ZIRP (but stopped QE)
PBoC dovish
BoJ QQE

#OGMT
9/n ...Europe M.PMI "EZ big4"

• Germany contracting
• France uptick
• Italy falling off the cliff
• Spain uptick

#ECB quo vadis
10/n ...Eurozone M.PMI vs Market

• M.PMI 50M L

market pricing in rebound or rich again ?
• vs $STOXX Y/Y
• vs $EUR Y/Y
11/n ... STOXX vs Credits + Vola

• M.PMI new 50M low (50.5)
• STOXX ITRAXX Credit Default Swap Index Corp IG in tandem rebound
• STOXX vs VSTOXX can only be explained by short sellers #stunning divergence
12/n ... EZ M.PMI vs Creditspreads

• M.PMI 50M L
• Both important Credit Default Swap Indices Corp IG and Financials Subordinated creating a massive divergence
• Stocks, Credits, PMI are all leading indicators. Market hopes for global stimuli
13/n .. Germany / France

• DE contracting now 49.7 50M L
• FR upticked to 4M H 51.2 but nevertheless shows a large gap to $CAC Y/Y
14/n ... Italy / Spain

• Italy nosediving to 47.8 7Y L
while $MIB totally ignores this ?

#ECB stopped QE, they dont buy BTPs anymore...
15/n ... UK

• M.PMI 51.8 slightly lower
• $FTSE and $GBP Cable as a comparison via Y/Y
#BREXIT negotiations
16/n ... US ISM vs stocks & Bonds

• ISM rebound to 56.6
• $SPX looks "ok-ish"
• US10Y as expected from the previous huge gap, came down and meets
17/n ...US ISM vs Credits & Vola

• CDX Credit Default Swap Index Corp IG as well as $VIX (3MMA) look indeed ok vs PMI Y/Y
18/n Global M.PMI breadth vs CL & HG

• PMI breadth is still deteriorating, Crude rebound on a) seasonality b) weaker US$ c) global stimuli hope
19/n Global M.PMI vs Energy Cmdty

• it would be too simplified to argue still falling PMIs call for much lower energy consumption hence Crude and NatGas look rich. but occasionally there were extremely large gaps and divergences.
20/n Global M.PMI vs Ind Metals

• same here as previous tweet, cycles are visible, Dr Copper holding up and Palladium is going to the moon as Autos will dismiss Diesel and every person in the world buys a car tomorrow. not.
21/n recap M.PMI vs Global 1

• World, DM, EM, F5
• US, EA, China, Japan
22/ recap M.PMI vs Global 2

• Europe, Germany, France, Italy, Spain
• UK, Switzerland, Sweden , Greece
• Austria, Poland, Hungary , Czech
23/n recap M.PMI vs Global 3

• Commodities producers: Canada, Russia, Australia, Norway
• Asia (HK, SI tba), South Korea, Taiwan
24/n Commodities Y/Y update 1

• Freight costs
• Energies, Metals

[ monthly update ]
25/n Commodities Y/Y update 2

• Industrial Metals
• Precious Metals
• Soft 1
26/n Commodities Y/Y update 3

• Soft 2
• Grains
@threadreaderapp please unroll this thread. thanks

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