, 25 tweets, 8 min read Read on Twitter
WEEKLY MOMENTUM Global Markets recap wk5 thread 1/n

• RiskON continued

• Indices breadth 61% up (ETFs in US$ terms even 76%)
• US sector ETFs 93% up
• US$ weaker vs 69% of currencies
• Turkish bonds massive rally
• creditspreads tighter
• VIX vola down
weekly update wk5 2/n

• M/M = YTD rankings
• RiskOn momentum across the board on seasonality, FED pause
weekly update 3/n Global Markets ROC overview
weekly update 4/n Trends & Exhaustions

this clearly shows if a short term momentum UP, while longer term trends are down = results in a flat 0
weekly update 5/n FX Matrix

• BRL best performer
• TRY catching up (see the bonds??)
• GBP bottom of the table (for now)
weekly update 6/n 10Y Yields heatmap

• besides a few exceptions, bond rallies across the globe continued too... actually for various reasons, partly disinflationary outlook (PMIs), but at the same time temporarily RiskOn appetite (EM), and flight to safe haven (Bunds vs BTPs).
weekly update 7/n YieldMatrix

• mostly bull-flattening theme and in a few areas, this is actually concerning, e.g. US, CA,

• Czech joins Turkey with inverted yieldcurve.
weekly update 8/n European Credits part1

RiskON continues in current downtrend...
weekly update 9/n European Credits p2

ditto, RiskOn momentum in downtrend

[ inverted scales to mirror stocks : wider spreads seen going down, spreads tighter seen going up ]
weekly update 10/n US credits p1

• RiskON continues
• now this gets interesting. Some subsectors overshooting the falling (wider spreads) SMA.
• no weakness for the time being to justify RiskOff shorts in SPX
weekly update 11/n US Credits p2

• same message: RiskON continues in shown subsectors
weekly update 12/n US Credits p3

• last of the 3 parts, no weakness at this point, still RiskON in spreads,rebound mode,medium term trend is still down (wider spreads).

if you shorted SPX early because it is "short term overbought" you got stopped out over and over again
weekly update 13/n ITRAXX Indices

• Corporates IG and HY as well as Financials Senior and Subordinated Credit Default Swap Indices still coming down in momentum market relief for now. It is what it is.
weekly update 14/n RiskONOFF Indicators overview

• same picture, most of the ratios or spreads keep going UP in current ongoing bull momentum [ while trend is down ]

• FED pause rally
weekly update 15/n CDX vs SPX p1

rebound is rebound, momentum is momentum. trend is trend.
weekly update 16/n CDX vs SPX p2

massive consolidation , that is whats going on.

WH + FED blinked.

Global PMIs are still falling. Markets pricing in global liquidity injections.
weekly update 17/n VIX distribution

Impl SPX volatility is nicely coming off as fear is replaced by new liquidity hope.

back below average uncertainty but not complacent.
weekly update 18/n VIX term structure

• what a month in change of uncertainty outlook

• market hoped a slightly more dovish FED and they got a complete 180° turn.

• from extreme backwardation to solid contango curve.
weekly update 19/n VSTOXX distribution

weekly update 20/n VIX vs VSTOXX

from NUTS to nuts.
weekly update 21/n US swap curve

• a few inversions and FED pauses. "Data dependent" (cough DOW JONES) and one more hike in 2019 and we'd have flat curve across
weekly update 22/n US dashboard

• Global Macro weaker (hope for global CB intervention)
• US Macro rebound (ISM, permits), FED on pause
• FF pricing in tiny cuts
• Front Swapcurve inverted
• RiskOnOff ratios/spreads and markets momentum still positive
weekly update 23/n US BIZ CYCLE

• MT MRI "tongue-in-cheek" model

• ISM , UoM, UE rate updated (and market levels anyway) brings model to 80.6, still "overbought" and below SMA

• who thinks, this cycle has years of legs still in it ?
weekly update 24/n EU BIZ CYCLE

• MT MRI "tongue-in-cheek" model

• ESI Manufacturing, Services, Consumer confidence updated

• ...looking at overall EU ESI + PMI and how sharply they keep falling, WHILE ECB STOPPED QE, how can this be going up large ?
@threadreaderapp please unroll this thread. thanks.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Kai Pflughaupt
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!