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MT GLOBAL MARKETS Weekly recap wk9 01Mar19 - thread 1/n

• mixed week across the board
• China tariff add-on postponed
• Greece Moody +2 notches upgrade
• Cable kept moving on possible Brexit delay
• Credits tighter
• Gold/Silver got smacked
2/n weekly recap wk9 assets overview

3/n Month Feb performance ranked

• second RiskON month in a row
• vicious rebound since Dec26th and Powell put
• Feb M.PMI (I will do this later) showed continuous global slowdown, ergo asset performance is on renewed global dovish CB's hope
4/n YTD performances ranked

• I included the annualised YTD to get some perspective
• anyways, strong start into 2019 after the shitty Q42018
• China on top now after this week jump
• 85% of global stock indices underperforming SPX
• some industrial commodities "moon?"
5/n global assets Momentum/Trend/Exhaustion

• I included a "momentum" column
• only Palladium in this ongoing demand (car manufacturing trend away from Diesel engines), is at +2.7z
6/n YIELDS Global Govt Bond 10Y heatmap

• with a few exceptions, bonds drifted lower, yields wider
• Greek bonds got a boost after Moody's upgraded them 2 notches
7/n YIELDS 2Y 10Y Curve

• DM world witnessed a bear-steepening last week
• US curve +3bp to 20bp
• Mexico 1s10s inverted
• Turkey still massive inverted, will they cut rates ?
• Greek as mentioned b4, +2 notches to B1 at Moody's (also: M.PMI came at 54.2 9M high)

• British Pound "on top of the leaderboard " as Brexit delay comes as a higher probability
• Japanese Yen weakness across the board
9/n CREDITS Europe 1of3

• ITRAXX Credit Default Indices Corp IG and HY as well as Financials Senior and Subordinated enjoyed another tightening week = RiskON continued
10/n Credits Europe 2of3

• update on the sector charts (inverted scales)
11/n Credits Europe 3of3

• update on the sector charts
12/n Credits US market 1of3

• update sectors 1 (inverted scales) = stable or tighter = RiskON
13/n Credits US market 2of3

• update sectors 2
• actually a mixed picture, some sectors seem to have continued resuming the overall (widening) downtrend (inverted scales)
14/n Credits US market 3of3

• last charts, only Aerospace/Defense seem to resume the bigger trend, all other sectors continued RiskON tightening (higher here on those charts)
15/n CREDITS CDX/SPX model

• the vicious RiskON rebound continued, CDX (Credit Default Basket Investment Grade North America) actually broke 60

• curve re-steepening theme has begun
17/n VIX term structure

• spot collapsed further in ongoing RiskON momentum mode to 13.6 = hence starts to be in C-territory
• steep contango curve now
18/n update VIX vs US YieldCurve

• if this (another "tongue-in-cheek" chart overlay) holds true, Jan-Jul2019 will be accompanied by low volatility or "calmness before the storm"... before market wakes up to more elevated vola
• GlobalSlowDown in mind ?
• Momentum vs Macro
19/n update RiskOnOff monitor

• 5 pos, 3 neutral, 4 negative
= mixed picture overall regarding momentum
20/n update US dashboard

• Macro negative: ISM 27M low, ISM prices 3Y low at 49.4, Global M.PMIs new multi year low (another thread later for that), UoM slightly improved
• CitiEco surpr indices red last week
• FF no hikes 2019 for a reason!
• Markets momentum mixed
21/n update US MRI "tongue-in-cheek-model"

• small adjustements, however, ISM at 27M low contributed to weakness, UoM slightly better, Credit spreads also tighter, so it s a mixed change overall. Next week NMI, UE rates.

next thread later tonight will be the Global Manufacturing PMIs and perhaps European ESIs.

thx for "reading". x

@threadreaderapp please unroll ! danke
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