Profile picture
, 26 tweets, 9 min read Read on Twitter
MT GLOBAL MARKETS Weekly recap wk12 22Mar19 - thread 1/n

• RiskOFF week
• FOMC sensitive XXL,more dovish than expected,no hikes 2019,taper+stop QT
• Global flash M.PMIs further weaker
• massive yield rally, crushing $XLF $KBE
• Creditspreads wider
• JPY top
2/n test screen
3/n update Global Markets YTD overview wk12
4/n update Global Markets general overview

wk , mth, YTD, YoY
5/n update Global Markets Momentum, Trends, possible Exhaustions

no surprise that some 10Y govvies getting flagged after this week
6/n update Global 10Y Govt Yields heatmap

• global recession on the skyline ? Very dovish FOMC and another round of weak (flash) M. PMIs led to this.
• Germany PMI crashed to 44.7 (80M low), 10Y Bunds now at negative yields again.
7/n update Global 2Y , 10Y , YieldCurves

• massive Front end Bull-flattening
• (not seen here) Long end (NOB) Bull-steepening
• S&P upgraded Portugal 1 notch
• Norway hiked 25bp (expected)
• I misjudged TRY CBRT BS/net reserves play (fell $6.3b) ahead of local elections
8/n update US swap curves

• 5s30s steepened further
• 2s10s revisiting last biz cycle lows
• 2s5s inverted to -12bp and that is lower now than previous two business cycles lows
9/n update RiskOnOff Monitor

• XLI XLU spread nosedives
• IYT DIA tanks
• ...
10/n update CDX / SPX correlation "model"
11/n ITRAXX Financials Sen & Sub spreads shot up
12/n recap flash M.PMI this week

• US 52.5 (growth, but 21M low)
• Europe 47.6 (71M low)
• Japan unchanged at 48.9 (=33M low)
13/n recap flash Europe M.PMI this week

• Germany tanked to 44.7 80M low
• France rejoined the <50 club
those flash numbers (US, DE, FR, JP) alone will bring the Global M.PMI index down by 0.4bp and the DM index by -0.6bp...the JPM Global index could break 50
14/n Germany M.PMI vs GDP

someone asked me why I think there is a 95% probability of a recession...

well, this nasty drop happened only 4 times in the last 2 decades. And I have my doubts it will suddenly stop and rebound. my 2cents
15/n so, if European business surveys keep nosediving, I can't see much sense, why creditspreads would substantially improve, maybe I 'm totally wrong, but those red lines should return South = wider spreads = poison for risk sentiment
16/n only solution is another massive round of global QE ?
17/n FOMC vs Mr.Market

• so, there it is.. the new fancy dot-plot. Once a qtr survey between delusional and scared officials. Now every EOY structure became a "x-mas-tree" as most members shifted dovish

• yet, everyone is still way "behind the curve" -look below
18/n this chart not to be taken too serious , but PBoC BS momentum doesn't really help either if that data is correct.
19/n update MRI MacroRiskIndicator "tongue-in-cheek-model"

• wider Creditspreads, lifted VIX made the index move lower.
• late cycle, still elevated, possibly and likely, but not guaranteed rolled over. it's a long process, don't hold your breath.
20/n update US dashboard

• Macro: flash PMIs US softer, Japan stayed weak, Europe got worse. Global/DM indices implied adjusted. Further yield inversions

• Technicals: RiskOff week. Ratios red, credit spreads wider, vola up, market soft, bonds rallied.
21/n COT CFTC report

this is a test, added AM and Commercials , maybe gets too confusing now.
22/n update VIX

• ah, it IS a new regime after all. ;-)
23/n SPX vs DJT

• "last stops taken out" was my post earlier this week
• Transportation rolled over
• neg RSI divergence
• super dovish FOMC
• softer PMIs
• further yield curve inversion 2s5s and also 3Ms10s !
• investors flogged into bonds
24/n NDX vs XLI / XLU

• not to be taken too seriously, tech is certainly very strong and leading. no question. Just thinking if we are witnessing a decoupling from RoW and how long will that last. Industrials vs Utilities vs Technology.
25/n USDJPY vs US05Y RiskOff move recently ... and possibly catching down more
26/n that's all folks

heading to Germany tomorrow, back Wednesday. good luck, take care.

@threadreaderapp , please unroll, thanks.

Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Kai
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!