Chart shows % Cdn pop under various provincial governments. Red and Blue shading shows balance of power. Bar top shows Fed party in power. Notice the balance between Fed and Prov.

The federal election this year is more important than you might think.

#cdnpoli Thread ….

1/17

Canadians seem to naturally achieve political balance by countering swings in provincial politics with opposing federal parties.

The swings are often massive, occurring about every 10 years, with almost total shifts from right to center-left and back.

2/

Interesting how the Charter was created in an environment of very strong Conservative provincial politics.

1982 was a period when more than 2/3 of the provinces were conservative and infamous PET was Prime Minister.

A different time when country came first.

3/

Since 1970, we have not had a period with aligned conservative prov and fed parties in power.

We have had periods with aligned Liberals, notably since 2016 and the election of Justin Trudeau. But they had no constitutional axe to grind, and public alignment was hard.

4/

Recently, notably in Ontario and Alberta, we have seen another titanic shift in prov politics, seemingly a response to over a decade of Liberal provinces and a counter-pose to federal Liberals and Trudeau. (see chart above).

5/

Currently provinces are…

5 Conservative: ON, AB, MB, SK, NB
1 CAQ: QC
3 Liberal: NS, NL, PE
1 NDP: BC

Elections this year: NL, PE, maybe BC
NL goes to the polls on 16 May!

Will we see 7 Con (or Con+CAQ) provinces this year?

I bet Scheer dreams of this.

6/

The amending formula is fairly straightforward;

7 provinces with 50%+ of the population can make substantive changes.
Often called the “7-50” formula.

The 5 current Con provinces already have >50% of the pop

The trigger for change is number of provinces

7/

The question is, will Canadians maintain balance and re-elect the Federal Liberals?

Have Trumpisim and Populist Alt-Right politics changed everything?

Is there an inexorable tilt to the right that will push the majority of Canadian Fed and Prov politics right?

8/

Here is the danger (1/3):

We already have well over 50% of the population represented by Conservative Provincial governments, even if you don’t count Quebec.

This is baked in for at least 3 more years. This situation is not uncommon, but…

9/

Here is the danger (2/3):

We have 60% of the provinces represented by Conservatives and the CAQ in Quebec right now. We only need 66% for constitutional amendments.
(7 provinces).

10/

Here is the danger (3/3):

2 provincial elections coming up. Small populations, but they count in Constitutional Amendment rules.

NL election in a month is a big deal. We could easily have 7 provinces aligned and supporting a Conservative federal government. #nlpoli

11/

Newfoundland and Labrador go to the polls on 16 May. #nlpoli
This is about much more than the provincial debt. The Liberal incumbents must not loose to the Conservatives.

A Conservative win pushes the Con provincial gov’t count to 6. This is playing with charter fire.

12/

For the first time, we face the real possibility of a Conservative Federal government and enough Conservative provincial governments (7) to pass constitutional amendments.

And there is the possibility that they do mischief with (or to) Quebec.

13/

Facing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, you can bet your boots that the Conservatives will try something. The planets might not align like this for them again for a long long time.

Of course, you need “small c” provinces to play along, but stranger things have happened.

14/

I can hear people saying “the eastern Conservatives are small c, they would never do anything radical or stupid”.

I am not so sure anymore. It seems the politics of stupid are all around us. Old norms are broken repeatedly.

I’m worried. You should be.

15/

Americans, bless their hearts, thought that the last presidential election was about Trump and Obama. It was about the Supreme Court – lasting change.

Canadians think the next Fed election is about Scheer and Trudeau. It is really about your rights – lasting change.

16/

There is a long list of Conservative wet dreams (1/2):

Guns (lots)
Marriage (man and a women)
Homosexuality (no rights)
Health care (private)
Social welfare (less for people, more for corporations) …

17/

Conservative wet dreams cont'd (2/2):

Environmental protections (less to none)
Carbon tax (eliminated)
Immigration (less unless you are white/rich)
Inequality (higher)
Elections (unfair)
etc.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.
VOTE! and vote wisely.
#cdnpoli #canpoli #nlpoli
/end