, 9 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Thread on the ongoing efforts to start joint Russian-Turkish patrols in Idlib's buffer/desecration zone:
1- Russian and Turkish troops have recently announced their plans to start joint patrols to secure greater #Idlib, the last rebel stronghold in northwest #Syria.
2- The agreement was first announced in #Moscow on April 9 during a visit by #Turkey's President Erdogan. The deal was then discussed with the rest of the parties (namely Iran, regime and rebels) during the 12th round of #Astana Process peace talks which took place recently.
3-The joint patrols were presented, along with other measures, to reduce violations in the Idlib and ensure stability in the region. The patrols are supposed to be limited to the buffer zone (i.e. not the whole region) &stretch from northern Idlib city to southern #Aleppo
4- But although the patrols are supposed to start in May, rebel forces are still rejecting the agreement. On top of allowing Russia to have a physical presence in the buffer zone, it may give it the authority to examine rebel bases and ensure the removal of all heavy weaponry.
5-Jaish al Azzeh, which controls parts of the frontlines with the regime in that area was among the first to threaten to attack the Russian patrols. Other local councils and civilian entities, including the salvation government, echoed that position.
6-To pressure rebel groups to accept the deal, Turkish military and security officials have been conducting a number of meetings with various rebel forces in Bab al-Hawa including with Jaish al Azzeh.
7-Similar meetings reportedly took place separately with HTS, which did not reveal its position publicly towards the agreement, despite the negative statement of its allied salvation government.
8- #HTS seems to be willing to accept the agreement on the condition of being in charge of protecting the joint patrols and determine their daily paths. HTS also demanded the termination of all attacks on Idlib & preventing Russia from establishing footholds in the buffer zone.
9- Despite those details, HTS' approval means that the rest of rebel forces will be ok with it. Nonetheless, Russia will still have to pressure Iranian backed militias and regime troops to also accept the deal. This will increase Russia's influence there at Iran's expense. End.
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