, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/3
#US officially increased tariff from 10% to 25% on $200bn Chinese goods that will be exported from #China beginning today (May 10) i.e. goods that are currently on their way to the US will still be subject to the previous 10% rate
2/3
√ In practice then, new tariff will become effective in a few weeks, which opens an unofficial window to continue negotiations. Talks will continue today

√ China will retaliate and US will start the process (c.3 months) of imposing the remaining $300bn of goods at 25%
3/3
√ Assuming no #USChina deal and with current higher tariffs remaining in place, the negative impact on China’s GDP growth would be some 0.5% and some 0.2% on US growth, with just the additional increase in tariffs representing a cost for the US of 0.15% of 2018 US GDP
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