EUROPEAN ECONOMIC SENTIMENT May2019 confidence survey thread 1/n

• France/Italy slightly improved
• Germany Manufacturing hits new 70M low, Consumer Confidence hits 27M low
• NL,BE,FI, PL, CZ, Sweden, UK further deteriorating
• Hard bond rally reflects future weaknesses

2/n Eurozone Unemployment gauge

• Confidence across all sub sectors peaked long time ago
• Manuf. new 33M low
• Services 4M low
• Construction 18M low
• Weighted index = 32M low

= official UE rate (currently 7.7%) will bottom and rise

3/n Eurozone ESI overview

•small signs of rebound, but downtrend is strong

4/n Germany ESI overview

• Manufacturing with highest weight hits new low
• Consumer Confidence hits low
• Construction rolled over

5/n France ESI overview

• impressive rebounds , que se passe-t-il ?

6/n Italy ESI overview

• confidence improved, construction in fact remains very strong

7/n Spain ESI overview

• mixed picture, but Retail and construction confidence got punched in the face

8/n Sweden ESI overview

• manufacturing and consumer confidence plunged to new lows... so did the ESI index itself
• construction holds weak level
• RIKSBank can't hike again, can they ?

9/n UK ESI overview

• Manufacturing confidence is being crushed...again
• ESI overall index now at 94.5
• BoE more QE ? back to rate cuts ?

10/n Czech Rep ESI overview

• Business confidence totally fading
• Services & Consumer confidence rolled over
• ESI index tanking

11/n Turkey ESI overview

• Consumer and construction confidence keep plunging

12/n EUROZONE Manufacturing New Orders

• vs STOXX Y/Y
• vs EURUSD Y/Y

13/n EUROZONE Manuf. New Orders vs 1wk EURIBOR and ECB reactions

• "had their chance and didn't dance" [ to reload ammo, but they preferred to keep digging ] ... now possibly running into recessionary sentiment while still on QE and ZIRP NIRP

14/n Germany Manufacturing New Orders vs ...

• DAX Y/Y
• 10Y Bunds bp chg Y/Y roll and 2Y/ roll

15/n speaking of Germany ESI... Manufacturing, Services, Retail and Construction weighted blend proxy for Inflation has come down = disinflationary momentum/trend...

16/n ...German Bunds keep rallying and making new yield low

• Inflation Expectations 5Y5Y FWD dragging down
• flight to safe haven as Italy politics & debt still create uncertainty
• economic picture in general weak
• tariff war
• global eco slowdown = global bond rally

17/n global slowdown = global bond rally...

• but rather in UST than BTPs or even Bunds.

18/n UK manufacturing new orders vs ...

• GBPUSD Y/Y
• FTSE Y/Y

19/n

that concludes the ESI May survey recap

tomorrow there will be a thread with global major stock indices charts (potential H&S formations building while US M.PMI plunged to 10Y low 50.6, Japan at 49.6 and Eurozone at 47.7, now expecting Global M.PMI to break 50)

GN x