1/ 6 PREDICTIONS about what @Facebook's #cryptocurrency means. Grab the popcorn bc I analyzed publicly disclosed info to make 6 predictions, of which 2 will be controversial (#2 and #6). @ForbesCrypto #Libra #bitcoin forbes.com/sites/caitlinl…

2/ First prediction: @Facebook's #stablecoin will be a positive force in developing countries. Second: @Facebook will pay #interest to users of its #cryptocurrency, which will eventually lead to populist calls to repeal subsidies at the heart of the US banking system.

3/ It's true that #stablecoin issuers generally pocket the float on the assets backing the coins, but I go out on a limb & predict there's no way @Facebook will be able to pocket these big profits w/o sharing them with users. To be clear I haven't seen @Facebook disclose this.

4/ The @Facebook foundation will garner big power in capital markets. I discuss the report that FB is charging $10m to node operators, which at first struck me as backwards. But there's a big pot of interest income for its partners to share, if it doesn't pay interest to users.

5/ That said, an independent foundation is a big positive for the project. Fourth, @Facebook's #cryptocurrency project will face all kinds of regulatory uncertainty. (I happen to know of an ideal regulatory structure for it...#Wyoming's #SPDI. @Tyler_Lindholm @GovernorGordon). 🤠

6/ Fifth, @Facebook's regulatory reporting program will open new discussions. Not only will we see how many of Facebook's 2.3 billion users are real (#cryptocurrency users must pass identity verification), but discussions about FB's privacy & power are about to extend to money.🤑

7/ This project will create a huge data honeypot for govts globally--with all the privacy & tax reporting implications such a data honeypot entails. It will enable govt officials who want to track every dollar spent. I've long maintained financial tx reporting rqmts won't pass...

8/ ...a US constitutional challenge. How interesting if @Facebook were at the center of such a challenge--would it fight or fold?? (forbes.com/sites/caitlinl…

9/ Sixth, @Facebook's foray into #cryptocurrency will likely end up a beneficial detour on the path to broader #bitcoin adoption. By educating consumers abt the benefits of #crypto & improving the user experience, FB will pull more users into #BTC whether it intends to or not

10/ h/t to @nickspanos for pointing out that's exactly what happened in Venezuela--education efforts about its ill-fated #petro correlated to a spike in #bitcoin use in Venezuela. h/t cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-t…

11/ Once people figure out #cryptocurrencies & UX is easier, they'll do the same--migrate to the most honest ledger for storing their hard-earned wealth. That's not fiat currencies or derivatives thereof, incl @Facebook's #stablecoin. So, this is a beneficial detour--bring it on!