, 9 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
With a crumbling economy, painful sanctions and internal dissent building up it should be remembered that Iran is also using psyops and projection towards their people. As in Venezuela, North Korea etc Trump and his Neocon Clown Car are seriously out of sync with reality.
Iran can create a global alliance with oil customers: China 22%, the EU 18%, Japan 14%, India 13% with the U.S. forced to punish former allies who will ignore or reroute their crude supplies. Trump can't win. bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2019/…
Iran has the ability to completely but temporarily destroy Saudi and Emirati fuel depots and temporary close the straights stopping commercial oil movement. Operators and insurers remember the 80's Tanker War well. haaretz.com/middle-east-ne…
Trump's chaos theory of foreign policy does not work when he creates chaos in long tail markets using rapid asynchronous shocks to the system. Distraction and chaos works if you are a buyer screwing people on a real estate deal or a pickpocket but not in geopolitics.
It is important to separate "disruption" theory from "chaos" theory. Disruptors typically have a new efficient market model which replaces slow or expensive, chaos can be caused by incompetence when elements in a system fail causing total collapse. referenceforbusiness.com/management/Bun…
Chaos theory is also Maoist idea that is embraced by terrorists and rebel groups. Multiople random attacks that have no pattern cause larger functional systems to over or under react creating failure by waste, expense and response time. marxists.org/reference/arch…
What we are seeing with Trump forays are the classic mistakes made by executives or generals who take bad advice, ignore history, rely on their "gut" and disdain experts or even their enemy. Rash acts based on self delusion that overrides sage advice. historyextra.com/period/medieva…
Wars can be won, attrition is a bitch and no one technically wins a war these days. We are still engaged in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, and Niger as well as kinetic and training support in dozens of local insurgencies across the world.
This is a conflict the neocons, the Israeli right and the Saudi/ Emirati families want us to fight for them. Iran's theocracy and hostile actions to the U.S. exist but there is a tone of deceit and incompetence in a negotiating tactic for peace masquerading as a threat of war.
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