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1) Now that #Barry has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, let's talk about how the forecast has evolved from a few days ago.
First, it appears the GFS handled Barry's initial structure better, with a low-level circulation removed from the mid-level vortex.
First, it appears the GFS handled Barry's initial structure better, with a low-level circulation removed from the mid-level vortex.
2) This is a result of continued northerly shear & dry air advection, which is both from the upper-level ridge poleward of Barry & also a dangling PV Streamer which folded under the ridge off the eastern coast. 
3) While previous forecasts had Barry track west towards the LA/TX border, its decoupled structure argues against that now.
The system is now more likely to be steered by low-level flow into a weakness. The ridge SE of Barry is stronger in the low-levels than the one to the NW.
The system is now more likely to be steered by low-level flow into a weakness. The ridge SE of Barry is stronger in the low-levels than the one to the NW.
4) I alluded to this a few days ago, that if Barry was less vertically deep, it could be more influenced by the ridge to its southeast, resulting in a more poleward track that moves into Louisiana further east.
5) The combo of shear, dry air, & less time over water probably put a cap on the maximum intensity of Barry.
Inland flooding remains the most dangerous threat of the storm, which should be taken very seriously given Barry's slow motion.
Inland flooding remains the most dangerous threat of the storm, which should be taken very seriously given Barry's slow motion.
6) I'll have some more details later, but that's all the time I have for now. Stay safe everyone in Louisiana & please considering evacuating if you are in a flood prone area near the coast!
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