The Atlantic is beginning to wake up as Tropical Storm #Barry will impact the Gulf States over the next 48-72 hours and invest #93L over the Atlantic's Main Development Region. The Calibrated ECMWF EPS has locked onto a 80-90%+ chance for this storm to develop.

The small burst in activity over the Atlantic may be attributed to the passage of the Madden Julian Oscillation, currently passing Africa and moving out over the Indian Ocean. Research has shown the MJO enhances the frequency of seedlings for TCs and modifies the large-scale env

If #93L ends up finding a way to develop into a tropical cyclone, the suppressed phase of a strong Kelvin wave will likely destructively interfere with the storm in a few days, either weakening the disturbance, or killing it (unless the disturbance can lift out of the tropics)