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(1) IMO #HurricaneBarry's NOLA impact will be FAR WORSE than forecast.
Cat 1 vs TS label only means WIND SPEED - which is largely irrelevant in this case.
The VOLUME OF WATER that will come in exceeds what the barriers/pumps can handle.
River already high, ground sodden.
Cat 1 vs TS label only means WIND SPEED - which is largely irrelevant in this case.
The VOLUME OF WATER that will come in exceeds what the barriers/pumps can handle.
River already high, ground sodden.
(2) I would love it if my above prediction turns out to be wrong. Pre-disaster talk that under- or over-estimates the impact can cause problems in future disasters. Responsible people try to get it right.
(3) Read this article to see why I am extra worried about NOLA this time.
weather.com/safety/hurrica…
weather.com/safety/hurrica…
(4) After the disaster, this question will be asked:
👉New Orleans had 14 years to learn from Hurricane Katrina & prevent another catastrophe: How did this happen?
The answer is complex.
👉New Orleans had 14 years to learn from Hurricane Katrina & prevent another catastrophe: How did this happen?
The answer is complex.
(5) To be clear, I'm not saying this one will be as bad as Hurricane Katrina was.
I'm saying it will be worse than the average Cat 1 hurricane or tropical storm, bc of natural and man-made factors.
Some will die because they didn't take advice. That always happens.
I'm saying it will be worse than the average Cat 1 hurricane or tropical storm, bc of natural and man-made factors.
Some will die because they didn't take advice. That always happens.
(6) The infrastructure projects since 2005 have been good enough to protect NOLA from several floods and storms in that time & they will continue to do that as long as they are operable.
If large scale relocation to higher ground was practical, it would be the best solution.
If large scale relocation to higher ground was practical, it would be the best solution.
(7) Government can change laws and fund projects to increase the rate of relocation. It hasn't.
The insurance and banking industries can incentivize it. That hasn't worked so far.
The insurance and banking industries can incentivize it. That hasn't worked so far.
(8) So if you can't permanently move people out of the way of the water, or pump it out (because there is nowhere for it to go, temporarily), then all you have left is evacuation orders.
City and state government are responsible for making those calls, not FEMA.
City and state government are responsible for making those calls, not FEMA.
(9) Here's some of what the City of New Orleans has been focusing on tonight.
IMO this is poor emergency management practice.
For example, highly trained FEMA in 2019 would not be doing this on the eve of a major disaster.
IMO this is poor emergency management practice.
For example, highly trained FEMA in 2019 would not be doing this on the eve of a major disaster.
(10) I haven't read the WaPo story but IMO the headline is factual, if sensationalized.
"Anxiety grips New Orleans as residents flee the city, bracing for heavy rain and hurricane-force winds."
They SHOULD be fleeing the city and, anxiety is understandable.
"Anxiety grips New Orleans as residents flee the city, bracing for heavy rain and hurricane-force winds."
They SHOULD be fleeing the city and, anxiety is understandable.
(11) Right now, the official messaging for those in the path of #HurricaneBarry should be short and simple.
Examples of effective messaging abound.
City managers are meant to work WITH the other agencies.
These are man-made factors that cause problems.
Examples of effective messaging abound.
City managers are meant to work WITH the other agencies.
These are man-made factors that cause problems.
(12) I'm writing this thread for folk who are NOT in the path of Hurricane Barry.
Those that are, can get GOOD info from these & other sources:
📲 @nolaready
📲 @NWSNewOrleans
📲 @ReadyGov
📲 @FEMA
📲 @femaregion4
📲 @FEMARegion6
Those that are, can get GOOD info from these & other sources:
📲 @nolaready
📲 @NWSNewOrleans
📲 @ReadyGov
📲 @FEMA
📲 @femaregion4
📲 @FEMARegion6
(14) I've learned from watching hurricanes & earthquakes that you can tell beforehand how a community will cope with it.
Despite the few individuals & agencies that let the team down, there are enough resources to help those in need, esp. where mainland road links exist.
Despite the few individuals & agencies that let the team down, there are enough resources to help those in need, esp. where mainland road links exist.
(15) Americans are generous. The Cajun Navy & others will do their thing as soon as the wind dies down. First responders, private helicopters, US Coast Guard, National Guard, other military, will be there.
You can donate to *trusted* charities via nvoad.org.
You can donate to *trusted* charities via nvoad.org.
(16) Almost landfall time. Latest update:
(17) This info was tweeted a few hours away and snuck in when I wasn't watching.
Remember the other factors are heavy rain and sodden ground. The river peak is good news but I remain cautious.
Remember the other factors are heavy rain and sodden ground. The river peak is good news but I remain cautious.
(18) Some MSM outlets are underestimating the danger by saying it doesn't look too bad atm, and not adding that after landfall the rain WILL get much heavier.
#Barry does NOT have the classic round storm shape.
#Barry does NOT have the classic round storm shape.
(19) I predict steady heavy rain after dark will combine with rising floodwaters to make water rescues more difficult than they needed to be. Best time to evacuate is before the storm or, if not, then before dark.
Gratitude to all first responders.
Gratitude to all first responders.
(20) When I saw tweets from the NOLA City Council and Mayor asking residents to report any street flooding to 911, my antennae twitched.
US Sen John Kennedy (R-LA) gets it right, reminding folk to keep lines clear for life threatening emergencies ONLY:
US Sen John Kennedy (R-LA) gets it right, reminding folk to keep lines clear for life threatening emergencies ONLY:
(22) Numbers to call in Louisiana. Many other states have a similar set of numbers.
Important Contact Numbers:
211 - Evacuation and Shelter Info
311 - Damaged/Downed Power Lines
411 - General Information
511 - Road Closures
911 - EMERGENCIES ONLY
Important Contact Numbers:
211 - Evacuation and Shelter Info
311 - Damaged/Downed Power Lines
411 - General Information
511 - Road Closures
911 - EMERGENCIES ONLY
