Some background everyone should know here: Navalny replaced Boris Nemtsov as leader of Russia's democratic opposition following his 2015 political assassination in the shadow of the Kremlin. 1/
Navalny has proven to be an UNSTOPPABLE CRITIC of thievery and widespread Russian corruption (Putin's after 18 yrs is estimated as high as $200 billion). 2/
Putin's efforts to stop Navalny from running as a political opponent include: 3/
conviction on politically motivated fraud charges
periodic jailing to prevent him from attending public marches/protests
attacks by proxies w/ antiseptic green dye that nearly blinded him
imprisoning his brother on fabricated charges to pressure him to stop
attacks on staff 4
periodic jailing to prevent him from attending public marches/protests
attacks by proxies w/ antiseptic green dye that nearly blinded him
imprisoning his brother on fabricated charges to pressure him to stop
attacks on staff 4
Navalny is NOT NAIVE. He realizes he has no chance to win in the 2018 election even if he was on the ballot.
Nemtsov once said Putin has 47 different ways to keep us off an election ballot. 5/
Nemtsov once said Putin has 47 different ways to keep us off an election ballot. 5/
Officially Navalny won't even be allowed to be on the ballot because of his orchestrated conviction. He is running nonetheless to highlight Putin's system of fake elections, to mobilize and educate a younger generation to participate in politics and run for office beyond 2018. 6/
Navalny has supporters and staff in dozens of Russian cities and more than 20 million viewers have gone to his website to see his documentaries on Putin corruption. 7/
Putin has never mentioned Navalny's name publicly;
Putin has his main propagandists (Kiselyov & Solovyov) attack him viciously (like they have attacked me on twitter prior to blocking me) in their weekly Russian TV shows. 8/
Putin has his main propagandists (Kiselyov & Solovyov) attack him viciously (like they have attacked me on twitter prior to blocking me) in their weekly Russian TV shows. 8/
Navalny, the late Nemtsov, and other political critics of Putin are never allowed to appear on state-controlled TV to express their views.
90% of Russians get their news from watching Russian TV. 9/
90% of Russians get their news from watching Russian TV. 9/
Russia after 18 years of Putin's rule has NO DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS.
It has only DECORATIVE INSTITUTIONS. Putin is an AUTOCRAT - 1 man controls the system. 10/
It has only DECORATIVE INSTITUTIONS. Putin is an AUTOCRAT - 1 man controls the system. 10/
Russian public protests (50-100,000 in Moscow alone) against Putin's return to the presidency in 2011-2012 marked a TURNING POINT for Russians. 11/
The MYTH OF PUTIN as an INDISPENSABLE LEADER (no one but Putin can save Russia from collapse) was shattered. Protesters shouted "PUTIN IS A THIEF!" and Navalny continues to document this on his website and in personal appearances. 12/
Putin publicly dismisses his potential political opponents as NOT SERIOUS & ONLY SEEKING PUBLIC ATTENTION. Yet the attacks upon them by his proxies show he is very concerned. 13/
BOTTOM LINE:
Best solution for Putin is his "NO PERSON, NO PROBLEM" solution.
But Navalny refuses to leave Russia, often stating "THIS IS MY COUNTRY & WE MUST FIGHT FOR IT.” 14/
Best solution for Putin is his "NO PERSON, NO PROBLEM" solution.
But Navalny refuses to leave Russia, often stating "THIS IS MY COUNTRY & WE MUST FIGHT FOR IT.” 14/
Given the ceaseless physical and political attacks upon Navalny and his supporters, and the political assassination of Russia's former democratic leader Boris Nemtsov we cannot rule out a similar fate for Navalny. 15/
Navalny's work poses an EXISTENTIAL THREAT to Putin and his KLEPTOCRATIC CRONIES. 16/
Removing Putin will NOT change Russia's thoroughly corrupt system.
It's roots are very deep and there is KOMPROMAT on officials at all levels of the system. Thus they have vested interests in keeping the current system even beyond Putin.
Otherwise their heads will roll. 17/
It's roots are very deep and there is KOMPROMAT on officials at all levels of the system. Thus they have vested interests in keeping the current system even beyond Putin.
Otherwise their heads will roll. 17/
KOMPROMAT is a KIND OF GLUE holding the system together.
And it is characterized by a single question Russians ask :"DO YOU REMEMBER?" (i.e. what you stole?)
18/ for now, that’s all.
And it is characterized by a single question Russians ask :"DO YOU REMEMBER?" (i.e. what you stole?)
18/ for now, that’s all.
More thoughts on Putin & Navalny:
The fact that after @Navalny was barred from running in next year's presidential election, the Kremlin felt the need to warn him not to agitate for a boycott speaks volumes. 19/
The fact that after @Navalny was barred from running in next year's presidential election, the Kremlin felt the need to warn him not to agitate for a boycott speaks volumes. 19/
Because while keeping Navalny's name off the ballot in March is easy, keeping him out of the campaign is another matter entirely. 20/
One way or another, either in the real world or online, Navalny will be campaigning. 21/
He'll be campaigning for a boycott or he'll be campaigning against the "fake election."
Which puts the Kremlin in a bit of a quandary. 22/
Which puts the Kremlin in a bit of a quandary. 22/
Sure, they can lock Navalny up again or place him under house arrest. But doing so would turn him into THE STORY. It would allow the anticorruption crusader to steal the spotlight at a time when the Kremlin wants Putin's campaign to be at the center of everybody's attention. 23/
Alternatively, the Kremlin could simply try to ignore Navalny or hinder him with petty harassment. 24/
But this would effectively give him free rein to troll the Kremlin's big show and ruin its ritual. 25/
How Vladimir Putin & his regime handles this will be one of the big questions going forward. 26/
I previously mentioned that removing Putin will NOT change Russia's thoroughly corrupt system.
It's roots are very deep and there is KOMPROMAT on officials at all levels of the system.
Very important for many reasons, but one I will mention that is not often discussed 27/
It's roots are very deep and there is KOMPROMAT on officials at all levels of the system.
Very important for many reasons, but one I will mention that is not often discussed 27/
These officials in Russia have vested interests in keeping the current system even beyond Putin.
Otherwise their heads will roll.
KOMPROMAT is a KIND OF GLUE holding the system together. 28/
Otherwise their heads will roll.
KOMPROMAT is a KIND OF GLUE holding the system together. 28/
Kompromat in Russia is characterized by a single question Russians ask : "DO YOU REMEMBER?”
(i.e. what you stole?) 29/
(i.e. what you stole?) 29/
But here is what we rarely hear discussed:
Kompromat in Russia is a two-way door. What does this mean?
Putin doesn’t just have Kompromat on many. Many have Kompromat on Putin. 30/
Kompromat in Russia is a two-way door. What does this mean?
Putin doesn’t just have Kompromat on many. Many have Kompromat on Putin. 30/
Putin is paranoid, terrified, and continually cleaning up his own mess he has left over the years.
We have seen visibly many of this through public reports of individuals that are no longer here. As Clint Watts @selectedwisdom famously said, follow the trail of dead Russians 31/
We have seen visibly many of this through public reports of individuals that are no longer here. As Clint Watts @selectedwisdom famously said, follow the trail of dead Russians 31/
Putin has no plans of going anywhere. Not in the near future, not in the long term. In his wildest dreams if he were to cut a deal (think of his predecessor) to finish office, be protected, and keep his fortune of money, Putin wouldn’t trust the deal to be kept. 32/
So what we have now in Russia is a very dangerous man, someone who keeps his own people up at night, they do the same to him, he has no plans leaving anytime soon, and he is to paranoid to dream of a longterm exit strategy where him & his dirty money would be safe. 33/
Some other key things to remember given the state of the U.S., a U.S. president (using president lightly) who is a puppet owned by Putin, and a looming WH Russia sanctions deadline: 34/
Soviet & Russian active measures have a long & rich history. This political warfare conducted by the Soviet & today Russian security services, as time has shown us, includes disinformation, propaganda, counterfeiting official documents, assassinations, & political repression 35/
And in more recent years we've witnessed growing sophistication to increasingly include cyber warfare, the use of computer technology to disrupt state activities and democratic institutions in particular. 36/
I think retired KGB Maj. Gen. Oleg Kalugin described active measures best when a decade ago he called it "the heart and soul of Soviet intelligence.” 37/
It is subversion intended to weaken the West and drive wedges in the Western alliances, notably NATO and to weaken the image of the U.S. globally. 38/
It is important to recall that Putin is a trained intelligence officer who, no doubt, received intensive training in active measures as a student in the Andropov Red Banner Institute of the KGB in the early 1980s. If you haven’t yet, look at latest @MichaelDWeiss article 39/
Putin rose to head the KGB's successor, the FSB, shortly before becoming president in 2000 and has since relied heavily on the KGB's playbook, which thanks to @michaeldweiss series & 1989 document you can have a better glimpse of what we are dealing with here. 40/
With Putin relying on this playbook, it is used to shape Russia's foreign and domestic policy, including medium-level diversionary wars abroad and growing signs of creeping totalitarianism at home. 41/
Viewed in this context, while some may view this as a potentially provocative thesis, contrary to conventional wisdom...Putin's interference in the 2016 election DID INFLUENCE 2016 voting. 42/
The glib prevailing assertion that it did not does not withstand close scrutiny.
Did Russian intrusion change the vote count in any mechanical, counting of ballots sense, where there was attempted Russian efforts to do so in multiple states? Remains an unanswered question. 43/
Did Russian intrusion change the vote count in any mechanical, counting of ballots sense, where there was attempted Russian efforts to do so in multiple states? Remains an unanswered question. 43/
However the use of bots, disinformation/fake news stories, and other active measures tools over a period of more than 15 months unquestionably shaped millions of American voter PERCEPTIONS and this no doubt influenced actual voting and ballots cast at precincts. 44/
This is virtually never stressed. In short, PERCEPTIONS do matter especially when blasted with fake news stories and other Russian active measures daily over months and years. 45/
The result bluntly stated is brainwashing versus a critical-thinking capacity.
What do we see when we closely analyze Russian intrusion into the U.S. 2016 presidential election? 46/
What do we see when we closely analyze Russian intrusion into the U.S. 2016 presidential election? 46/
In general, we see active measures methods honed in Ukraine since 2004 and more recently in many other European states. We see a classic two-pronged attack of embarrassing leaks and false news orchestrated by the Kremlin and Russia's GRU, military intelligence, in particular. 47/
We see Democratic data/information being scooped up by the Kremlin to be released, through different outlets, cutouts, misleading accounts, and sites at critical future points in the election. (I.E. October 7)
Do we see this with the Republicans? No.
48/
Do we see this with the Republicans? No.
48/
We see a classic disinformation campaign with lies and half truths intended to shape opinions spread by “bots” - algorithms with fake profiles on social media networks. We see Russia repeatedly denying involvement in the cyberattacks. 49/
And very disturbingly, more and more by the day, we are seeing a WH that is doing its best to be a little Russian satellite office & slow down things like Russia sanctions delivery.
Comments by the Autocrat to the NYT today further show this. 50/
Comments by the Autocrat to the NYT today further show this. 50/
It is worth recalling Putin's failure to squash Ukraine's Orange Revolution in 2004 and install his puppet Viktor Yanukovych as president. 51/
Twice Putin prematurely declared him winner. Massive public protests against voting falsification, however, led to a second vote count with poisoned democratic candidate Viktor Yushchenko finally winning. 52/
But Putin didn't give up. After 6 long years of active measures' campaigns in Ukraine his puppet Yanukovych was declared president in 2010 only to flee to Putin in 2014 after Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity/Euromaidan Revolution succeeded. 53/
Don’t forget: Who was Yanukovych's main spin doctor leading up to his 2010 victory? 54/
No other than Paul Manafort who followed a familiar formula: divide the country (Russified East vs Western Ukraine), fuel public anger and hatred, push a populist agenda, and flood the country with fake news from Russian outlets. 55/
Sounds familiar?
Finally, before leaving Ukraine Manafort even managed to set up a pro-Putin “Opposition Bloc” of more than 40 MPs today in Ukraine's post-Yanukovych parliament.
Putin hasn't yet given up on Ukraine. He needs to show Russians a failed democratic state. 56/
Finally, before leaving Ukraine Manafort even managed to set up a pro-Putin “Opposition Bloc” of more than 40 MPs today in Ukraine's post-Yanukovych parliament.
Putin hasn't yet given up on Ukraine. He needs to show Russians a failed democratic state. 56/
Viewed in this light, we can expect that Russia's commitment to active measures will remain strong under Putin then ever before and even beyond. 57/
After 17 years in power Putin's kleptocratic, authoritarian system is deeply entrenched with solid support from his increasingly tightly-controlled security services. 58/
The Colored-democratic Revolutions of recent years in neighboring countries only add to his deep insecurity and fear of one day losing control and facing a Hague Tribunal for war crimes. 59/
Not a damn thing has been done in the U.S. to prepare for what Russia has in store for our next major round of elections. Yet in the meantime, Putin is claiming we are meddling in his own election, to which he literally controls what number he wants to win by in March. 60/
Combining these these so they are connected:
