As both @seismo_steve and @janinekrippner have pointed out seismologists (or animals, or anyone else) can't predict earthquakes. usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-p…

However, we can give probabilities and forecasts of when earthquakes are likely to occur. This is not the same as prediction. usgs.gov/faqs/are-earth…

Many many seismologists, geologists and other scientists and communicators are working to develop these forecasts so that we can give the very best, most accurate information to the public, emergency responders and gov officials so that we can be prepared. scec.org/ucerf

Here is an example for the Bay Area. pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2016/3020/f…

These are made using everything we know about the geology, paleoseismology, physics of fault systems, rock mechanics, the amount of stress accummulation on different faults, etc. The earth is a complex system.

So instead of "When is the next big one?" what we should be asking is "How do we prepare for the next big one?" bc whether it happens today or in 100 years it will happen and we need our cities and communities to be able to ride it out and recover.

This is where scenarios like @ShakeOut (pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/) and @HayWiredCA (usgs.gov/natural-hazard…) come in. They combine the best science with the best planning and get everyone to work together to prepare.

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