New analysis: Insurer finances in the ACA-regulated individual insurance market improved dramatically in 2017. If not for actions by Congress and the Trump administration, we'd be looking at very modest premium increases for next year.
kff.org/private-insura…

No one sheds tears for insurance companies. But, the success of the ACA depends on private insurers participating, and they have to be profitable to want to participate. That wasn't true in the early years of the law, but it is now.

Premiums in the individual insurance market under the ACA increased sharply in 2017. That was a one-time correction to bring revenues in line with higher-than-expected claims. Subsidies protected low-income people, but the middle-class felt the full brunt.

The big 2019 premium increases we're starting to see in the ACA individual insurance market are not because the market was unstable. They're due to repeal of the individual mandate penalty and the administration's plan to expand loosely-regulated insurance.

Not all insurers in the individual insurance market will have big premium increases in 2019, even with repeal of the individual mandate and expansion of short-term plans. That's because they overshot with their increases in 2017 and 2018.

2019 premium increases for ACA plans could become a political football in the election.

Big increases for 2017 were due to the structure of the ACA, and Democrats paid a price.

But, big increases for 2018 and 2019 are largely due to Republican efforts to undermine the law.

The data suggests that big ACA premium increases in 2018 and 2019 are being driven largely by actions by the Trump administration and Congress. The public is also primed to hold the GOP responsible.
kff.org/private-insura…

There's no question repealing the individual mandate and expanding short-term plans will push ACA premiums up in 2019.

But, premium increases (and decreases) will be all over the map based on local market conditions and how much insurers increased premiums this year and last.