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Gregory Waters Profile picture
Gregory Waters
@GregoryPWaters
Tracking SAA & ISIS mostly via Facebook | Researcher @syrian_archive | Analyst @FightExtremism | Non-Resident Scholar @MEI_Syria
Nov 1, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
Lots of hype for an imminent Turkish offensive in NES that seems largely divorced from reality. Reminds me of the cycles of "new Idlib operation" that are based on flimsy evidence.

Struggle to see why this would happen after yesterday's at least not-negative Biden/Erdogan summit From the Turkish perspective, their big complaint has been the PKK commanders embedded in NES and they seem quite content with their recent policy of droning these commanders. Meanwhile their military is stretched thin with overseas deployments right now
Sep 20, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
This horrible article is a great example of "analysts" manipulating "data" to fit a policy proposal and narrative they decided upon before researching.
washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi… The moment you rely on ACLED for Syria your evidence is worthless. There were *at least* 248 anti-regime attacks this year, the vast majority targeting regime and allies. Even when ACLED under-counts attacks it absurdly inflates casualty numbers (no numbers in pic 2 are right)
Oct 13, 2019 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
Reports that #Russia & #Damascus will take #Manbij

Almost certainly confirmed & is easy enough, Russian-trained & equipped #SAA units have been stations just outside Manbij for almost a year now
#1st_Division also sent some reinforcements to #Qamishlo airport yesterday. Not originally planning for today's events but they're there now.
Oct 9, 2019 • 376 tweets • >60 min read
Almost daily #ISIS raids in central Syria now.

Three days ago Hani Hassan disappeared somewhere between #DeirEzZor & #Bukamal.

Hani was a member of the #SAA's 17th Division, 10th Reserve Regiment & comes from the largely Alawite village of Na'arah #Homs
Image Member of the 137th Artillery Regiment (claimed 17th Division although the unit is historically 7th Division) killed in Harbisha #DeirEzzor just east of #Sukhna #Homs wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=3… Image
Jun 17, 2018 • 21 tweets • 15 min read
New thread on interesting SAA & Republican Guard facts/anecdotes I’m finding for an upcoming report. Mostly stuff from earlier in the war. Video shows #Chechen foreign fighters in Ballermoun, Aleppo on March 17, 2014

On 3/21 rebels here killed Maj General Samea Abbas, head of the 102nd Regiment RG. On 3/25 they killed Brig General Qasi Mohammad, commander of the 415th Battalion of the 102nd.