The slides from a presentation I did recently on seeking to understanding and #insight in today's world...(1/30) #Thread 2/30

The CBO has dropped the '2020 long-term budget outlook' - It's not pretty...cbo.gov/system/files/2… #US #USeconomy #Debt #FiscalMonetaryMelt #Macro #Risk Some take aways...(1/5) 2/5 #US federal #deficits, #debt, spending & revenues...#Macro #Risk

The Tower of Basel dropped the 'Quarterly Review: International banking & financial market developments' so I loaded up on espresso & blueberries & dove in2 this trove of soothing CB lingo mixed with some Sufi wisdom & colourful illlus: bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_… Some takeaways 1/5 2/5 Riddle me this; "Stock markets rebound unevenly amid downgraded earnings expectations." & "Corp #credit spreads tighten despite indications of persistently high credit #risk" & "funding costs for #EM sovs drop despite weak pf inflows."

WIPO has published their +400 page 'Global #Innovation Index 2020: Who will finance innovation report out...full of insights...here are a few key takeaways...(1/3) Bracing for a downturn & impact from the economic slowdown... 2/3 #VC penetration in select economies...The global leaders in #innovation by nations...The top #Science & #Technology clusters globally...Rising innovation achievers...#InvestingInInnovation

Get the weekend started right...

Shot... Chaser...

@McKinsey_MGI has a report out titled; '#Risk, resilience & rebalancing in global value chains' it holds some good insights into trends in #GlobalTrade...Here are some takeaways...1/4 Large companies has global #SupplyChains w. 1000s of suppliers, disruption risks varies... 2/4 #Globalisation has been changing in the last decade, sector concentration varies between industries, poten. losses from #SupplyChain disruptions can be as high as 42% of 1 years EBITDA..Supply chain #shocks are becoming more frequent & severe...

This conversation frm the Yale Program on Fin. Stability has some interesting insights on inflation, living w very high lvls of debt, wealth taxes, crisis, crossing red lines of CBs buying corp debt & gov debt monetisation, swimming w. crocodiles.. #Macro It is also an interesting example of the hell scape that Zoom calls with academics is especially when u are not speaking...Ben is feeling it here...

Some take aways from the BoA 'Global Fund Manager Survey'...(1/5) HT @MillennialMacro 2/5 Global fund manager survey key takeaways...71% think the stock market is overvalued...While still heavily allocated to #US markets, the #EU is most favoured regional equity long & Euro expected to appreciate...#Investing #Macro

The S&P Global Ratings' 'Global #Banks outlook midyear 2020 review holds some interesting insights: spglobal.com/_assets/docume… #GlobalTrends #Macro #Risks...Some takeaways...(1/5) Overview, BICRA scores & risk trends, rating bias turns sharply negative... 2/5 #NorthAmerica banking sector overview...#Credit conditions, Fragile uneven sector recovery, #US bank earnings fall on provisions...#Macro #Risks

Spend the day watching an impromptu 3 vs 3 #Basketball competition that my super sharp shooter & local youths put together...@NBA best be ready...Here he is finding his range...(1/6) One legged buzzer beater @jj_redick style...Here's some highlights for those missing the game... 2/6 The Pull up...#BasketballNeverStops...

S&P Global Ratings provides an odyssey length bullet point journey through the global credit landscape here: spglobal.com/ratings/en/res… #CorporateCredit #Macro #Risks A few takeaways...1/4 2/4 Economic/Financial conditions & #credit outlooks...#US outlook, #Europe outlook...#Macro #Risks

The Q3 JPM "Guide to the Markets" has as per usual some insightful illustrations which I have sliced up below for your viewing pleasure... image.gim.jpmorgan.com/lib/fe92137277… #GlobalTrends #Macro #Investing #Insights (1/4) 2/4 S&P500 2020 earnings "growth" estimates...Sources of earnings per share growth...S&P500 dividend cuts, suspensions & increases...The long arch of history view of the #US stock market..#Macro #Investing

Somewhat muted 90th birthday celebrations at the 'Tower of Basel' comes along with their 'Annual Economic Report' plenty of insights & illustrations of the economic & financial fallout from the #Covid19 crisis: bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2… Some takeaways (1/4) 2/4 BIS perspectives on the unfolding of the #Covid19 crisis..

The Fed Board of Govs 'Financial Stability Report' from May holds some interesting perspectives: federalreserve.gov/publications/f… Some takeaways...(1/5)...The assets - where will these valuations be at in 2021? Which ones wld u want to hold? #Macro #US 2/5 The liabilities...Outstanding #US Non-financial corp & household #credit...#CorpCredit at record highs % to GDP..High yield/Lev. Lending looking challenged b4 Fed stepped in...#Macro #Risks

The BIS CGFS Paper; '#USD funding: an international perspective' holds some interesting insights on global #CapitalFlows, holders of USD-denom assets & risky areas of the 'plumbing' - bis.org/publ/cgfs65.pdf Some takeaways...1/4 USD #perspectives... 2/4 Overview of the characteristics of #USD funding markets...#Europe has pulled back from #USD cross-border flows since GFC, #UK, #Japan, #Canada & #OFCs remain dominant...#GlobalTrends #CapitalFlows

The @BIS_org Quarterly Review of international #banking & financial market developments holds some interesting insights: bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_… A few takeaway...#China's non-fin corp #debt is massive but mainly owed internally...(1/4) 2/4 #USD cross border credit to non-fin corps trends show that #India & #SaudiArabia is on the wrong trajectory but #Mexico is perhaps of most concern, + it faces steep financing needs 4 the sovereign & the SOE (PEMEX?) has plenty of foreign curr bonds outstanding...

The @McKinsey_MGI 'The future of #Asia: Decoding the value & performance of corporate Asia' report provides some interesting #insights: mckinsey.com/featured-insig… A few takeaways...(1/5) Asia's corporates: Capturing the top line but struggling to convert to the bottom line.. 2/5 #GlobalTrends - Corp profitability has declined around the world over the past decade w. #Asia account 4 appox. half of the decline. The world is more capital-intensive than it was a decade ago...#Macro

This report on #US #rural #infrastructure holds some interesting perspectives: tripnet.org/wp-content/upl… A foundational piece of the US economy - #agriculture & resource extractions & rural communities are facing challenges on multiple fronts, infrastructure being 1 of them..(1/4) 2/4 Overview of share of #rural population in each state & rural counties classified by dominant economic sectors...#US

@HJS_Org has put out a report looking at 'Breaking the China Supply Chain' it makes some interesting points & suggests some paths forward: henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-content/upl… #GlobalTrade #TechNationalism #GeoPolitics Some takeaways...(1/5) 2/5 Some interesting lessons from history from the perspective of the so-called 5-eyes nations...(Report lacks in presenting the perspective from other nations, namely China, which is needed 4 a constructive dialogue on these important dynamics) #GlobalTrends #GeoPolitics

@rhodium_group has released their 'Two-Way street: 2020 Update #US #China #InvestmentTrends' report. It holds some interesting #insights - ncuscr.org/sites/default/… #Macro #Decoupling Some takeaways...(1/4) Overview of US FDI in China... 2/4 #GlobalTrends - #China FDI in the #US...#Macro #CapitalFlows

@McKinsey_MGI's report 'Fast forward #China: How #Covid19 is accelerating 5 key trends shaping the Chinese economy' provides some interesting #insights... mckinsey.com/featured-insig… A few takeaways...#GlobalTrends #Digitalisation (1/4) 2/4 #GlobalTrends - #China's declining global exposure, Sentiments moves towards supply chain diversification and regionalisation...