France finds itself in an uncomfortable bind in the confrontation between Israel and Iran – de facto involved on the Israeli side but having no influence on the actions of the Isaeli government 1/ France was one of three countries - with US & UK – which fired anti-missile missiles at Iranian missiles and drones as they flew towards Israel at the weekend 2/

On Ukraine, @EmmanuelMacron has made a spectacular two-year journey from apparent dove to leading hawk. Why? French officials say the facts have changed and Macron has changed with them. Is that a full explanation? A VERY LONG historical thread... 1/ Since Feb 2022 the French President has evolved from would-be Putin intermediary to implacable Putin foe. From “Don’t humiliate Russia” (May/June 2022), he has shifted to “Russia must be defeated” (June 2023) & now “Don’t exclude sending western ground forces” (February 2024). 2/

The French National Assembly last night overwhelmingly approved President Emmanuel Macron’s 10 year security pact with Ukraine – but lambasted his suggestion that French and other Nato troops might serve on Ukrainian soil. 1/ The lower house of the French parliament voted 372-99 to endorse a bilateral security pact with Kyiv signed last month. But Macron’s controversial boots-on-the-ground initiative (not part of the pact) was disowned by all opposition groups from far-right to far left. 2/

A visit by @EmmanuelMacron to Ukraine, provisionally due this week, appears to have been delayed a second time following the Russian missile attack on Odessa  half a kilometre from the visiting Greek Prime Minister last Wednesday. 1/ The Macron visit was originally expected in mid-Feb but delayed until mid-March. After a telephone call last night between the French President and the Ukrainain President @ZelenskyyUa, the Elysée Palace said that Macron would go to Ukraine “in the next few weeks”. 2/

Macron today produced maps of a poss Russian breakthrough towards Kyiv or Odessa which could oblige the west to act to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. In talks w French opposition leaders, Macron said there should be no more “red lines” on Fr involvement in the conflict 1/ .@EmmanuelMacron summoned leaders of all French parliamentary parties to talks at the Elysée Palace to explain his controversial remarks last week in which he said the deployment of western troops in Ukraine should no longer be excluded 2/

Coming back to @ConStelz exceptional piece in @FT with a few thoughts on French side. @EmmanuelMacron NATO comments were intended as a warning to Russia & an “electro-shock” to Western countries before they stumble into a slow-motion defeat in Ukraine 1/

ft.com/content/54b1d9… Senior Elysée sources say Macron’s words were calculated - and driven by a fear the West might be sleep-walking into a slow-motion defeat in Ukraine - forced by further Russian breakthoughs, a long delay in provision of US aid and a possible @realDonaldTrump victory on 5 Nov 2/

.@EmmanuelMacron last night lifted
greatest of all taboos on discussion of western efforts to prevent a Russian victory in Ukraine. Are NATO members ready to send their own forces to fight the Russian invaders? Not yet, Macron said, but the poss should no longer be “excluded” 1/ Macron said boots-on-the-ground question had been raised at emergency summit on western arms supplies @Elysee yesterday. “No consensus” exists at present, he said, but “nothing should be excluded” going forward, “We will do all that it takes to ensure Russia cant win this war” 2/

A thread ahead of this yr @MunSecConf. 2024 is proving to be an exceptionally anxious yr for EU. Resurgent populism, flat growth & concerns over what @realDonaldTrump will do if he returns to power are equalled only by EU's inability or unwillingness to meet these challenges 1/ What makes 2024 unique is how difficult the domestic politics already are in all of EU's key member states: Germany's coalition risks being overrun by unnecessary fiscal constraints and the AfD. The coalition is facing prospective cuts between €40-50bn (1-1.5% of GDP) in 2025 2/

President @EmmanuelMacron announced yesterday a new agenda of educational, civic, social and economic “rearmament” to revive his flagging second term and defeat what he called the “easy anger”, “lies” and “collective impoverishment” of Marine Le Pen’s @MLP_officiel Far Right 1/ The headline announcements during a marathon press conference included uniforms in all French schools from next year, legal restrictions on children’s use of computers and mobile phones and a new curriculum to instill patriotism & understanding of democracy in French children 2/

Last week's European Council shows that Hungary-EU relations are likely broken beyond repair & ultimately heading towards breaking point. It is wrong to draw any comfort whatsoever from @PM_ViktorOrban decision to enable Ukraine's EU membership talks to begin 1/ Orban's decision to walk out of the room means he does not support Ukraine's EU aspirations. That is an immovable constraint in a process that is *totally* dependant upon unanimity at every single stage 2/

.@EmmanuelMacron meets @PM_ViktorOrban for dinner at @Elysee this evening. What the hell is the French President thinking - given its highly, highly unlikely Orban will move? Quick thread after chats with senior French officials on Macron's thinking 1/ First: No one serious in the French system is under any illusions that Orban will move tonight. That's not the point of the meeting. Rather it is to clearly demonstrate that they both agree that they completely disagree 2/

Guess who’s coming to dinner. President @EmmanuelMacron has invited the turbulent, pro-Russian Hungarian PM @PM_ViktorOrban to the @Elysee tomorrow evening to try to dissuade him from wrecking a crucial EU summit on Ukraine in Brussels next week 1/ Macron has a long record of trying – & mostly failing – to charm authoritarian & populist leaders from Putin & President Xi to @realDonaldTrump & @BorisJohnson. Despite opposed views on most European subjects, Macron has maintained a polite, working relationship with Orban 2/

The EU's geopolitical contribution to 🇺🇦 war was meant to be € & EU integration, while US would lead on the harder (military) stuff. But these 2 pillars of EU support are now unravelling ahead of Dec EU leaders meeting

What's going on? Only read if you want to be depressed 1/ The big prob with € for Ukraine is Germany's fiscal mess, following its constitutional court ruling that €bn parked in off budget vehicles - designed to circumvent strict fiscal rules - are illegal. The big prob w Ukraine's EU path is Hungary. Lets start with latter first 2/

Senior EU officials tell me that in principle pol decision to open accession/membership negotiations with Kyiv is now no longer likely at Dec European Council - as PM Orban is demanding not only €bn but removal of @vonderleyen as COM Pres after EU elections next year 1/ Germany's fiscal mess after last week's constitutional court ruling is also making a deal on @EU_Commission proposal to top up EU budget a lot less likely. This is turn is risking EU €50bn commitment for Ukraine to 2027. Senior officials v pessimistic, even on Ukr aid 2/

Macron today attempted a perilous balancing act in a conflict which threatens to overturn all balance & proportion. After talks in Jslum with Israeli PM Netanyahu, Macron called for a western coalition to defeat Hamas but also a “decisive” relaunch of Palestinian peace process 1/ Macron said western countries should unite to defeat Hamas as they had Islamic State. But he said such a campaign, though “merciless” should not be “without rules” – a warning France & other western countries wd not turn a blind eye to limitless Palestinian civilian casualties 2/

The EU has made an utter mess of its response to the unfolding events in Israel/Gaza - so European leaders will attempt to throw their strategy forward when they convene remotely at 1730 CET this afternoon 1/ Europe's strategy will have 3 main elements: 1) Supporting Israel while urging restraint (w a much greater emphasis on restraint). Many senior voices in Bxl/EU capitals think Netanyahu's Govt is already in violation of international law & vm worry about what's about to unfold 2/

Senior EU official: “VdL has committed an error of such a strategic nature this will cost her very badly. She has damaged our entire outreach over months in the global south on the Russia/Ukraine conflict. She is endangering citizens of Europe who are held hostage... ” “... She is risking unleashing migratory flows and placing in danger security of diplomatic staff in the region and humanitarian aid workers. She has just killed any prospect of an MoU on migration with Egypt and the MoU on migration with Tunisia... ”

This Sunday's national election in Poland is going to be highly consequential – for Poland and the EU. The race is incredibly tight, so regardless of the outcome, Poland is likely heading for very turbulent times indeed. Thread 1/ The elections are being hailed as the most important since 1989. Indeed, should the incumbent national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) remain in power, they are likely to push Poland further along the illiberal route charted by Hungary's Viktor Orban 2/

The EU's stance vis-a-vis the UK/Brexit is evolving. According to multiple, well placed senior EU & member state officials, the EU is no longer as united against the UK as it used to be in 2016 1/ Exhibit A is on going negotiations - instigated by UKG - to delay for 3 years, 10% tariffs on electric vehicles trade that will bite for both sides on 1 January 2/

Like ships that pass in the night…France and the UK are on radically different courses in the battle against climate change after announcements by President @EmmanuelMacron tonight intended to reduce French carbon emissions by 108m tonnes a year by 2030 1/ UKG is pushing back carbon reduction targets & it's reported, scaling down rail projects, like HS2. France acc to Macron plan, will produce 1m electric cars in the next 4y & spend €700bn on expanding or building fast, regional commuter train networks in 13 French conurbations 2/

There's a lot of negativity about @Keir_Starmer trip to Paris today to see @EmmanuelMacron. A lot of “@UKLabour is delusional & don't understand EU” kind of thing. That it's all pointless given “no CU, no SM” redlines. That's premature. There's also a positive case to be made 1/ Firstly, beyond what the UK “can offer” EU, the value & importance of
more consistent, more serious & more forward-leaning engagement shouldn't be underestimated. There has been a total lack of UK political leadership vis EU & if Starmer delivers that it will build goodwill 2/