Right now we are watching the moral & intellectual collapse of US foreign policy (not the first time).
1. The US (the Biden administration & all the more so the GOP) fails to stand up against Russian aggression against Ukraine without any real argument. 2. Clown @SpeakerJohnson has visited Trump & kissed his ring. He must not allow any funding to Ukraine. He intends to hinder it through complications not to seem guilty.
If Johnson allows any Ukraine funds, Trump's loyal Putinist executioner @RepMTG will oust him as speaker.

When Russia started the war against Ukraine, we were a substantial group that called for the West imposing a no-fly zone as in Iraq. Now, the US, UK & France have proven that it was perfectly possible with regard to Israel. Why did they refuse to protect Ukraine?/1 If the West had imposed a no-fly zone over Ukraine (whole or parts), Russia would not have been as aggressive in its bombing as it has been now. Probably it would have done nothing. Putin respect power & nothing else. This was a fundamental & costly misjudgement./2

1. Absurdly, the US House of Representatives has ended up in a situation where one single member has a veto. Matt Gaetz ousted Kevin McCarthy single-handedly & Marjorie Taylor-Greene threatens to do the same with hapless Mike Johnson. 2. In Poland in the 18th Century this was called "liberum veto," one single member of the Sejm could veto any decision. The Sejm could make no decisions & especially Russia bought a few votes. The result was the demise of Poland through partitions in 1772, 1793 & 1795.

I feel enormous frustration, seeing how the West is letting Ukraine down. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed & millions have been forced to flee & the West drip-feeds Ukraine with out-of-date arms, though a few hundred foreign volunteers have fallen in Ukraine. 1. To begin with the West (the US!) should encourage Ukraine to hit hard in the whole of Russia. How can Russia's terrorist bombing of the whole of Ukraine be tolerated?
2. All surplus arms in the whole West should be sent to Ukraine at no cost & not decommissioned.

It is difficult to see the Crocus City Hall terrorist act as anything but instigated by the Kremlin & the FSB:
1. The 4 terrorist arrived in camouflage with kalashnikovs all in one car - no checks on the roads.
2. No security was present at Crocus. 3. The standard metal detectors were turned off.
4. The terrorists stayed 18 minutes in the Crocus City Hall & worked out calmly. No police or security arrived.
5. Police & FSB centers are located within short walking distance from the Hall, but they came only after one hour.

From the outset, the Biden administration (read Jake Sullivan) has been dead frightened to "provoke" Putin, to escalate, to provoke World War III or a nuclear war.
1. In April 2021, Sullivan called back two US destroyers on their way to the Black Sea not to provoke Russia. Thus, Russia ended freedom of navigation on the Black Sea & blockaded all Ukrainian ports from early 2022 before the war. This was a serious US mistake. the braver UK & Dutch naval ships entered the Black Sea in June 2021.

1. The US opinion polls suggest that Trump is most likely to win the US presidential elections in November. That will be a catastrophe for all democracies in the world, including Europe.
If Trump becomes president again, NATO will no longer offer Europe any security guarantee. 2. Therefore, Europe needs to prepare to defend itself.
3. Europe needs to follow the Polish example & arms as fast as just possible. Arms expenditures must be given top priority as during a war.
4. Europe needs to establish a common security strategy w/o the unreliable US.

A few thoughts on how to strangle the Russian economy.
1. Russia lives on its exports of commodities. 90% of its exports are commodities & 2/3 used to be oil and gas.
2. Commodities require cheap transportation, shipping or pipelines. 3. Russia has already lost almost all its 150 bn cubic meters of gas exports to Europe, worth $60-70 bn a year. The dominant gas pipelines go to Europe & Russia produces little LNG. Domestic gas sales remain heavily subsidized so Gazprom can go bankrupt.

For a new US policy on Ukraine:
1. Declare that Ukraine must win (@POTUS has finally done so - make it the key policy line).
2. Accept that Russia must be defeated (reject the Thomas Graham line that Russia must not be destabilized.) 3. Do not constrain Ukraine in the war! Ukraine should allow to attack any Russian military targets with any Western arms.
4. As Generals Hodges & Breedlove state: the control of the bridges to Crimea is likely to decide the war. Allow Ukraine to take out the Kerch bridge!

It is vital that the Congress provides Ukraine with $61 bn of military & financial support in 2024, but I fear that will NOT happen:
1. The Senators are likely to come to some agreement that will be unpopular, but acceptable, to the democrats. 2. Next the issue goes to the House. The new speaker has no interest in any package. The worse the situation at the southern border, the better for the GOP. If Mike Johnson makes any agreement, the even worse GOP extremists will attack him. Why help Ukraine or secure the border?

Little has enraged the pro-Ukrainian community more than the December 27 NYT article:
"Ukraine Doesn’t Need All Its Territory to Defeat Putin"
by the hereditary Russian nobleman Serge Schmemann, member of its editorial board.
Let me take it apart.
nytimes.com/2023/12/27/opi… 1. The issue is not: "territory" as President @ZelenskyyUa persistently emphasizes but PEOPLE. Ukrainians in territories occupied by ruthless Russian soldiers are killed, tortured & deported. Even a great Russian imperialist such as Schmemann must have heard of it.

All too often, you hear that Russia will win over Ukraine in the long run because it has a much larger economy & population. Historically, that is a flawed conclusion. This is why Ukraine is more likely to win.
1. Ukrainians know why they are fighting. The Russians don't. 2. Russia is wasting its soldiers' lives ruthlessly. Ukraine claims 320,000 killed Russian soldiers. Even if it is only half, it would be 160,000, that is, 10 times the Soviet losses in Afghanistan. This is hardly sustainable.
3. The Ukrainians defend their nation's existence.

A few comments on Western sanctions on Russia. They are often misunderstood. Western politicians love to talk about "sanctions from hell," but good sanctions take off 2-3% of GDP each year and they have done so for Russia, whose GDP has stagnated since 2014. Putin & his ilk, on the contrary, claim both that the sanctions just make them stronger (which is wrong) & that they have to be abolished (which them must not). Their advocacy shows that the sanctions really bite.

Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan have just published a truly scary article, "Redefining Success in Ukraine." Pretty much is wrong is this article.
Together with Putin's prime US advocate Thomas Graham, Haass & Kupchan met with US-sanctioned Sergei Lavrov.
foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/redefi… As Senior Director for Europe in the National Security Council in the Obama administration, Kupchan took pride in blocking any delivery of lethal arms to Ukraine, claiming that he helped to avoid World War III, while in fact he facilitated Russia's invasion in 2022.

I don’t claim to understand the exceedingly complex Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but I know a few things about Russia.
Russian oligarchs, notably Roman Abramovich, have been very close to both Putin & Netanyahu. These people spread enormous amounts of money… Netanyahu has maintained good (close) relations with Putin.
What did he get from that? That should be investigated by Israeli authorities. I can guess, but I won’t say, not to be sued by o e Russian oligarch or the other.

It is excellent that the US President has appointed a heavyweight, cabinet-level Special Representative for Ukraine's economic recovery, former Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker. Instantly, she has formulated a US policy on Ukraine's reconstruction. 1/
csis.org/analysis/doing… It is time for the EU to follow, appointing a top former EU politician to take the EU political lead on Ukraine's reconstruction. 2/

The recent ruble fall shows Putin's economic dilemma. He has increased military expenditures sharply this year - probably 6% of GDP.
Russia's public debt is small - 15% of GDP, but Russia cannot borrow abroad. It has to manage with small reserves & tax revenues. The situation is aggravated by a persistent huge net capital flight, presumably much of it belongs to Putin & his closest cronies - Timchenko, Kovalchuks & Rotenbergs, so he cannot introduce serious capital controls other than temporarily.

Everything suggests that the Kremlin realizes that it is losing. Therefore it tries to do all kinds of malicious activities:
1. Bombing Ukrainian civilian targets:
Give Ukraine more air defense!
2. Trying to block the Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea: Send NATO ships & airplanes into the Black Sea to escort ships out from Ukraine. That is DEFENSIVE!
3. Russia will go haywire with assassinations abroad: Kick out all suspect Russian intelligence agents!

In the last few days, the Ukrainian war looks much better.
1. Even always gloomy US General Milley claims that Ukraine has broken through the first Russian defense line at Robotyne in Western Zapirizhe oblast. 2. Ukraine carried out a successful major attack on Russia's radar in Crime, which makes it possible for Ukraine to bomb Crimea pretty freely with drones.

The US administration had better rethink its policy on non-aggression against Russia.
1. The Black Sea is international water & a US fundamental principle is the freedom of navigation that the US has allowed Russia to violate since early February 2022. 2. The US has refused to provide Ukraine with a no-fly zone (as was done in Iraq). Instead it has guaranteed the aggressor, Russia, a no-fly zone prohibiting Ukraine to attack Russian military bases with US arms.
This makes NO SENSE. Stop that immediately & start thinking!

Putin's press meeting today was noteworthy in many ways.
1. Only loyal Russian journalists were allowed although this was about Africa. Total censorship. All must have received their questions in written form from Peskov. 2. Putin maintained his usual physical distance, including to Peskov.
3. What really interested the journalists the most was whether Putin would dare to go abroad - not to South Africa, to Turkey? to India. (I bet he will not go.)
kremlin.ru/events/preside…