Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Associate professor, forecaster, CEO, financial crisis expert, and geopolitics. Leading author of GnS Economics Newsletter: https://t.co/R7XsHFQfeJ
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Jun 25, 2023 9 tweets 2 min read
So, I've now used most of the day to read the news, blogs and rumors on #WagnerCoup . Here's my five cents.

The attempt was real supported, probably, by West-leaning Olicarchs. West at least knew that something is about to go down, and CIA, etc., may have played a role. 1/6 In Rostov, it became clear to #Prigozhin, and probably to Putin also, that the coup will be unsuccessful. Many Wagner troops were lured into the attempt by false premises (tends to happen in coups) and they turned back.

Local governors and people also sided with Putin.
2/
Jun 17, 2023 8 tweets 2 min read
An unpopular opinion.

After being single for 3 1/2 years, and after meeting a lot of women, I have arrived to the conclusion that a vast majority of modern women are nothing more than an hindrance.

We should be talking about 'toxic femininity'. 1/8 I would give two 'diagnostic criteria' for a "toxic" woman:

1. She builds an attractive public profile to seek validation from other women and attention from men.
2. She uses 'ghosting', victimization, public outcries and accusations to deal with difficult emotional issues. 2/.
Mar 24, 2023 4 tweets 2 min read
In the coming weeks we will publish our in-depth analysis on the global banking sector, concentrating on Europe and the U.S.

Our findings and the list of most vulnerable banks will be provided to our paid subscribers, only.
1/4
@GnSEconomics
gnseconomics.substack.com This is for the simple reason that we do not want to feed the panic or cause a bank run.

We are also naturally highly committed of bringing the most accurate and timely information to our clients, where our allegiance lay.
2/
Mar 20, 2023 17 tweets 4 min read
Some comparisons between GFC 1.0 (2007-08) vs. GFC 2.0 (now).🧵

2006, July: The S&P Case-Shiller national home price index peaks and starts its long decline.
2021, April: U.S. CPI grows by a shocking 4.2% (Y-o-Y) starting its long acceleration and aggressive rate hikes.
1/17 2007, 13 September: BBC reveals that the BoE has secretly given £21 billion liquidity support to mortgage lender Northern Rock leading to run on the bank the next day (first bank run in the U.K. since 1830).
2/
Mar 13, 2023 7 tweets 3 min read
#SVB had around $175 billion worth of deposits vs. $125 billion in the FDIC Deposit Insurance Fund (total).

Deposits have already been transferred to Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara, where they should be available to depositors.

How is this going to go?
🧵1/7 Shareholders and uncovered debt holders (bond owners) will be wiped out.

Next the SVB (mostly its loan book and assets) is probably sold to whoever wants to buy it.

The money from the sell is then most likely used to cover some share of the uninsured deposits.
2/
Mar 9, 2023 5 tweets 2 min read
There are signs of escalation everywhere you look.

It seems that Russia used hypersonic missiles in its early-morning raid for the first time. Marked as retaliation, but could also be the beginning of new phase in #UkraineRussiaWar️ .
🧵1/5 Poland and others are sending more tanks, on which first ones should be in operation in Ukraine in this month. Bakhmut, on the other hand, is falling to Russian hands (to the Wagner group).

The war is not going as we in the west have been told. 2/
Mar 7, 2023 10 tweets 5 min read
Many have asked me on preparation and my opinions about #gold , #stocks , #Cash and #banks .

We have presented these and preparation guidelines in the following reports, which will continue next week.

Our latest forecasts. 👇
@GnSEconomics
🧵1/10
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/deprcon-outl… The fundamental thing to understand, concerning preparation, is how prices of different assets are likely to behave in the coming crisis.

In this report, we present historical patterns of key assets classes during crises.
2/
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/the-preppers…
Mar 1, 2023 8 tweets 4 min read
During the past week, I and we conducted an in-depth analysis of the U.S. #economy . The results were not encouraging.

First, I discovered that the banking sector was more fragile than previously thought.
🧵1/8
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/the-us-econo… It also seemed that the U.S. credit markets were in the grips of a (fallacious) complacency, shown on the proportionally milder reaction of the "junk" bonds on the current tightening cycle.

But, can the #Fed support the markets in the current situation? We're not so sure.
2/ Image
Feb 26, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
I have to admit that March worries me, while I "called" it already in November.

This is because it can become a month where "everything" converges to form a 'perfect storm'. I shortly summarize them here.
🧵1/6 I first warned on the risks ("fracture lines") in global liquidity in November.

We and I have been analyzing them further and it looks that there's a risk of an outright collapse of global market #liquidity in March. 2/
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/an-update-on…
Feb 21, 2023 6 tweets 3 min read
The global business cycle is forecastable around 4-5mo ahead and the provision of liquidity into the financial markets is forecastable around 2-3mo ahead, currently.

The onset of economic crises is much more cumbersome and uncertain to forecasts.

A short 🧵on what's coming. 1/6 The flow of aggregate financing in China sputtered in October and fell of a 'cliff' in Nov/Dec. This implied that

1) This month will see first signs of a renewed decline in econ. indicators.
2) Decline will deepen in March and April.

Details. 👇
2/
Feb 18, 2023 25 tweets 6 min read
Past week I promised a (long) thread on global #liquidity and so, here goes!

I have been analyzing the current state global liquidity since early November. Then I warned on possibility of an outright collapse of market liquidity.
🧵1/25
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/global-liqui… Basically, I re-iterated our original warning from October 2018, when we had discovered that:

1. Global outside-US dollar denominated debt has risen to a record.
2. The role of non-bank institutions on providing funding has increased.
2/
Feb 9, 2023 17 tweets 5 min read
I'll do one more effort to explain, why the "recession is cancelled" argument is false. 🧵

It is based on ignorance on the forces that lifted the global economy from its slump in the fall.

Global recession is still very much 'on the cards'. 1/17
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/derpcon-outl… Everything you need to know is summarized in this graph. It shows that Chinese business (debt) cycle leads European cycle by around 3-4mo and the global business cycle by around 4-5mo.

In tight turning points (crises), with synchronous response, the lag is shorter. 2/ Image
Dec 8, 2022 14 tweets 7 min read
Seven charts to explain, why the U.S. is heading into a #recession (which is unlikely to be "mild"). 🧵

Let's start with the most problematic one: the yield curves. Many read these like the Bible, and they rarely have gotten it wrong. However, this time there's a problem.
1/14 Image Our first-ever U.S. #recession call, in March 2019, predicting the beginning of an U.S. recession in early 2020, was based on the inversion of the yields of the Treasuries with 10-year and 3-month maturities.

But, they are being manipulated. 2/
gnseconomics.com/2019/03/27/rec…
Dec 6, 2022 15 tweets 8 min read
The four unpleasant means to get #inflation under control:

1) Keep rising rates.
2) Getting rid of all (useless) Covid restrictions + NO more stimulus.
3) Peace in #Ukraine .
4) Running down the global balance sheet of #centralbanks .
(+ A revolution?)

🧵 1/15 #inflation = excess (monetary) demand over supply.

You need to get demand down and/or supply up to get price pressures under control.

Current situation is an (insane) combo of stimulus and demand destruction. We, e.g., should do everything to grow energy production. 2/