Setting the Stage: World Indices Setup for 2024

AEX - Netherlands ASX All - Australia

10 Most Interesting Videos on the CFA Society India Channel.

Take your time and go through them. Would recommend attending the physical events too.

@CFASocietyIndia 1) Brave New World | Ritesh Jain, Co-founder, Pinetree Macro.
He spoke about the liquidity way of investing, Tracking the global liquidity flow across past decades, how liquidity impacts economies, market returns based on liquidity.

#NiftyMicrocap250 - An interesting thread.

Lot of discussion on this to show how stretched #Microcaps are.
up 65-70% since March
Represents Top 250 cos beyond Nifty 500. ( Not exactly Microcap)

History of less than 2 years.

It also has an ETF by MotialOswal. 1) The Constituents tell you the Story

Look at the Top 10 Constituents.

Many of them have gone up big time in the last few months. But historically had a lot of sideways periods.

#FlashBack Thread.

17th May 2004 - #BlackMonday LowerCircuit Day.

Started learning Technicals from @nsfidai just a week or two before this event.

Remember him and his friend discussing how markets are heading lower irrespective of results.

Let's see what happened. #IndianElections & the Impact.

#Nifty fell almost 20% in a single day. Closed 12-13 % lower.

Down 32% from April to May. Peak to Bottom.

On Close 24% fall.

#BJP lost elections.

Remember the "India is Shining " Campaign.

Learnt Lower Top Lower Bottom Pattern

#WisdomTales: Insights from Legends

In this series, we cover interesting stories and insights of legendary investors which will give invaluable lessons in the journey of investing

In this thread, Kenneth Andrade explained how using #TechnoFunda does not work on huge PF size !! According to him both the studies contradicts each other, example, A technical chart will tell you to sell it 20% below your purchase price and as a Fundamental analyst you will double your position at 50% below your purchase price so those things are conflicting

5 Trends - A thread

1) Leadership Changing in Banks,
2) NBFCs breakout,
3) PSE FOMO to set in,
4) New Age Cos Bottomed,
5) Smallcap Oops Moment !! BankNifty@44k
HDFCBank (28% Wt) - 1750 a major resistance.
KotakBank - (10% Wt) - 2000 resistance.
ICICI Bank strength continues.
SBI crossing 600 confirmation of strength.
AxisBank & Indusind Bank ( 1250 resistance ) can be new leaders.

Be selective.

New iOS in #Markets

Indian #Options Speculators.

There has been a huge surge in #Retail and #Proprietary trading in #Options and more specifically in #Index Options.

The Data & Charts below are just #Crazy and getting crazier. 1) #Retail Participation went through the roof in 2021

Some Moderation now in 2022-2023

#Retail in Cash Market From 3 cr in Jan 20 to 11.7 cr in 2021.
#Retail at 3.2 cr participants March 23.

3x jump in all participation from Jan 20 !!

A thread to understand the #Hotel Industry - from the eyes of Patanjali Keswani of #LemonTreeHotel Difference between this decade and last decade for hotel industry –

> Supply injections are going to be very very limited compared to previous decade.

> Growth of demand was at 12% and supply growth was at 15%

> Now the supply growth is under 5% and demand is northwards of 10%

Small PSU Banks & Yes Bank - Future multibaggers or just a frenzy?

One will think that it is the best time for PSU bank investors given the recent rally in psu banking stocks!!

Is it really the best time? Let’s find out !!

#yesbank #psubanks #multibagger #frenzy First of all let me get this clear, if you are a new investor in PSU bank stocks who bought it 50-100% lower , then you have clearly made money and kudos to you for that…The question now to ask is whether the rally is sustainable or not

Google Trends - A Thread

1) Bear Market - Nearing 2020 Highs

#bearmarket 2) Recession -

Reaching previous peak levels of 2008/2020

#recession

#NiftyCalculator #Thread Interesting Observations -

Top 5 stocks – Reliance, Infosys, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC, = 41.49% of Nifty.

Top 10 stocks constitute 58.39% of Nifty

Top 20 stocks constitute 77.07% of Nifty

HDFC Twins together constitutes 14.71% of Nifty Reliance is the top weight at 10.77%, followed by HDFC Bank at 8.54%. 20% of the Index.

Reliance + HDFC Twins = 26.09% of Nifty (Hope you get why Nifty does not depict GDP. 26% of India GDP not equal to Reliance +HDFC)

Bottom 24 stocks have less than 1% weight

#TweetStorm - Nifty up But Stocks are Down !!. Time for Stocks to Catch Up in coming years. Read the Full Post on this link - nooreshtech.co.in/2020/11/nifty-… Another Post - March 24th 2020 nooreshtech.co.in/2020/03/equity… 2020 move did some things very differently. No euphoric move in end of 2020 like 2007. The fall has seen no relief rallies of any sort. If this is the case the historical expectation of a sideways consolidation & a retest may not happen. So the recovery can even be very ferocious

This #TweetStorm is just an itch to write about ITC Limited which everyone has spoken about :). Pardon me if its totally useless. 1) FII shareholding in December 2016 Peaked at 20.89%. Reducing Every Quarter since then !! Down to 14.6% in June 2020. 2) Mutual Funds have gone from 2.65% to 9.45%. Insurance Companies mainly - LIC,GIC etc continue to own 20-22% in the same period. Even SUUTI has gone down from 11.13% to 7.94%.

The big implication of new rules in #multicap fund category by SEBI. An impromptu attempt at rambling up some thoughts. Would love comments and feedback no how to benefit from this trend. Some points i cover in tweets below 1/5 1) 18-20% of the Total Equity AUM is in Multicap Funds - Suddenly the rules of the game have changed. Will lead to merger and other creative solutions but not mad buying of smallcaps.

A quick take on new #SEBI Norms. 1/NLike it was mentioned yesterday - Lot of things can happen. 1) A Multi-Cap Fund may merge itself with a Large & Midcap Fund or any other category. 2) Outflows from Multi-Cap Funds to #LargeCaps which reduces the theoretical buying in #smallcaps 2/N 3) Close the Fund which may not be viable. Nobody likes losing AUM. 4) Another creative Solution or Loop. The Fact is #Smallcaps cannot digest 5000 Cr of Liquidity Gush, forget about 27000 cr. But all the solutions will lead to AUM leakage which AMCs may not like !!

#TweetStorm - A Quick take on the new #SEBI circular. 1) The new rule states that a Multicap Fund needs to have 25% in #LargeCaps, 25% in #Midcaps. 25% in #Smallcaps. This needs to be aligned before January 2021. Data Source - MoneyControl 2) The Total AUM of the Multi-Cap Funds is 1.53 lakh crores. 25% allocation to #Smallcap =38300 crores. Current Allocation= 11240 Crores. Potential Buying or Difference to be Aligned = 27062 crores.

#Ambanization of #Nifty50 - A short #tweetstorm. Full post on this link - nooreshtech.co.in/2020/08/ambani… #Reliance is now 14% of the Nifty. Till the time #Reliance outperforms , #Largecap #Mutualfunds to underperform? Top 2 stocks 23.56% of the Nifty. Top 3 equal to 31.12% and Top 5 equal to 42.83%.Top 20 Stocks are 79.26% of the Index. Lower than the peak of 80.4% .
Top 10 Stocks are 62.6% of the Index. All time High Concentration.

#NSE - Interesting #Statistics - #TweetStorm - •% of Shares Deliverable to Total Shares Traded now at 15.05%. Lowest since 2001. % of Delivery to Value of Shares Traded at 16.44% below 2009 !! #Daytrading increasing or #HFT , #colocation and #marketmaking? Value of Shares Traded ( Cr ) at the Highest Ever. A peak in this generally an Inflection Point for the long term. For example January 08 value got hit in June 09. What is it now ?

#TweetStorm - 1) The Curious Case of #GlenmarkPharma and #Favipiravir. The The number of articles on Favipiravir and Glenmark Pharma have shot through the roof. We will look at it from a price,volumes and search perspective. Stock price shot up 40% in the day and closed 27% on 22nd June 2020. Added almost a 3000-4000 cr market cap coz of this move.
Stock price fell 6.7% on 23rd June 2020.From a low of 160-200 in March the stock has moved up to 500+ but is still down from peaks of 1250.

A lot of beaten down #Financials and #Banks seeing a breakout - #BandhanBank, #RblBank,#indiabullshousing... Can see upticks but one needs to be nimble footed to book out quick and a big rise or on the first turn. Quick Charts - #RBLBank, #IndiabullsHousing,#BandhanBank, #IndusindBank... Need to be very alert and nimble.

#Whattay Series. In this #tweet thread will keep adding a lot of #stock price moves, #valuations where you end up saying #WHAT. No Reco just ?? Do comment 1) #Relaxo Footwear - just 10% away from highs. Market Cap = 18319 cr Sales 2500 cr #Bata -18419 cr Sales = 3056 cr !! PE ? No Effect of #Corona on this #RealEstate Company. A 30% rally from the lows in May June.Low delivery volumes and almost same volumes and a weird chart.. Anyways its an avoid so not naming it.