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Trent Telenko Profile picture
Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko
Married father of four great kids, Retired US DoD Civil Servant, Section 22 Special Interest Group list admin, Chicagoboyz-dot-net history blogger
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May 6 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
There are still Western military officers -- including most flag ranks -- watching videos like the one below and denying FPV and other cheap DJI drones have fundamentally changed the way wars on the ground are fought.

Drone War🧵
1/7 A year ago Ukraine had 10,000 drone operators, one per 100 troops

It has trained far more since then.

In fact, the AFU has created a military drone branch co-equal to infantry and artillery branches.

2/7
May 5 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The people on X saying Ukraine couldn't use ATACMS in the counter-battery role against Russian tactical ballistic missiles were shills, toadies, and trolls.

No one who was at all reality-based would have said anything so stupid.

"WHEN THE GODS OF ARTILLERY MAKE A POINT"🧵
1/ 2016 article at the link titled in english "WHEN THE GODS OF ARTILLERY MAKE A POINT" makes clear Ukraine had a very tight intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance kill chain between its Spetsnaz and it's Tochka-U TBM & 300mm MLRS batteries.

2/
 petrimazepa.com/goddot.html
May 4 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
What this Russian chemical feedstock for explosive production supply issue @Schizointel tells us about in his post below...⬇️

Russian Explosive Supply Chain🧵
1/ ...means that the Russian TogliattiAzot ammonia production facility just became a priority target for Ukraine's OWA-drone strategic bombing campaign.

The distance by car between Kharkiv, Ukraine and Tolyatti, Russia is 982 km.

2/
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May 2 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Just...Finally!!!

Russian electrical railway substations are the key transportation infrastructure powering 70% of Russia's freight & passenger locomotives.

This is hard to replace long lead item (months) electrical infrastructure.

AFU Strategic Bombing 🧵
1/

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Image Systematic targeting of these electrical facilities powering the railways within 200 km of Ukraine's 1991 border with Russia will logistically isolate the RuAF frontline units in Ukraine from 70% of rail supply.

Map H/T @Textyorgua_Eng
2/
 en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian…
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Apr 29 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
This is a symptom of the Russians lacking the industrial capability to make enough 152 mm barrel liners and the lack of 152 mm barrel life in reserve artillery stocks.⬇️

Russian barrel shortage🧵
1/ This was passed on to be by a Cold War graybeard in the Summer of 2022:

"A colleague who has worked in the area told me years ago that a lot of the cited strategic reserve is mythological as they burned out barrel liners

2/
Apr 27 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I had a few pro-Russian trolls denying the effectiveness of cluster munitions on Russian railway infrastructure and engines the other day.⬇️🤣

Rail yards are one definition of "soft target."

1/ ATACMS M79 APAM submunitions hit far harder than the .50 caliber guns of WW2 fighter planes.

Here is are WW2 .50 caliber machine gun train strafing films to calibrate your eyes.

2/
Apr 27 • 21 tweets • 8 min read
This Russian translation 🧵by @sambendett of Russian drone volunteer Aleksei Chadaev criticisms of Russia's drone procurement system are worth a read.

They also confirm a Nov 2023 Chicagoboyz blog essay of mine about the EW game in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Civil Society at war🧵
1/ I did a direct message interview with Forbes Magazine journalist David Axe the first week of November 2023 about the state of the “Wizard War,” that is electronic warfare, between Ukraine and Russia.

See the link below:
2/
chicagoboyz.net/archives/70303…
Apr 27 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The entire pre-war fleet of the Russian Army MT-LBVM(K) had gone 'battlefield extinct' by May 2023 at numbers far less than recorded by IISS.

And yet a number of Western intelligence outfits are claiming up and down the Russian Army is stronger now than in Feb 2022.⬇️

1/ The "Canary in the Coal Mine" importance of the MT-LBVM(K) is that the MT-LB hull was built in Ukraine & all the MT-LBVM(K) were current Russian specific rebuilds.

It fact checks the quality Western intelligence on what the actual AFV stocks & loss rates of the RuAF are.
2/
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Apr 25 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Please compare this Mig-29 100m^2 front facing radar cross section fail...

1/ ...To this front end view of the Russian Su-57.

Those radar blocking covers reduce Su-57 engine performance when the Russians most need it for non-afterburner supercruise performance.

2/ Image
Apr 23 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
This is a Ukrainian balloon bombing thread is interesting on a number of levels.

Both the UK and the Imperial Japanese engaged in strategic balloon bombing in WW2.

Balloon bombing🧵
1/ The first was the UK's Operation Outward. It was noticed after a windstorm during 1940's Battle of Britain that barrage balloons dragging severed cables under them caused shorts on power lines, damaging the power grid in occupied Europe.

2/
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Apr 21 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
The extra $300 million for the F-22 buys superior "bow tie" stealth capability, more reliable engines, and a much better radar system.⬇️

The Su-57 is a "Pac man" style stealth system like the F-35.

Cost effective stealth🧵
1/
Image Russia's Su-57 uses a drop down blocking engine device rather than a full S-shaped engine inlet like the Chinese J-20 (below right) or the F-22.

2/
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Apr 19 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
The longer range 5V28 missile of the S-200/SA-5 Gammon have a reported range of 345 km against a Mach 3(+) SR-71 class target.

A Kh-22 missile carried by the Tu-22M bomber, NATO code named"Backfire" has only a 290 km stand off range.

S-200/SA-5🧵
1/ This would be the 2nd reported downing of a Tu-22M by an S-200. The earlier Tu-22M being in December 2023.

It looks like these Tu-22M are still using Soviet era EW suites which were not geared against the S-200 C-Band, 100 KW, 5N62 Square Pair FMCW tracker/illuminator.
2/
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Apr 18 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Between ~1996 and 2005, most FMTV trucks accepted by DCMA for the US Army had my signature on the truck property forms along with my DSN phone number.

I got three or four calls in Sealy Texas from NCO's in Iraq trying to score ballistic composite glass armor because they stopped these EFP attacks⬇️

1/ DCMA Sealy was getting photos from contractor relatives of bombed FMTV's with sheet metal armor and receiving IED damaged trucks to get rebuilt.

You could tell the blast damage from how the windows were missing and the roofs were bowed at the top.

2/

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Apr 18 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Iran's campaign to suppress Israel's ballistic missile defenses is underway.

Air Defense is a combined arms form of warfare. Western militaries have forgotten this since 1989, see⬇️

Every Patriot or Iron Dome radar needs its own dedicated gun based point defense in the age of drones and indirect fire ATGMs.

1/ Locating Patriot/Iron Dome/S-400 class radars is easy peasy lemon squeezy.

You can use commercial synthetic aperture radar satellites and on-line radar interference tracking tools.

2/
Apr 17 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
The thing that has deeply bothered me about this RuAF Tsar-shed tank with jammer and the earlier "Pallet Jammer" tank is the complete lack in any public analysis of the mention of Electromagnetic compatibility (EMC).

You can't throw radio-electronic systems together and expect them to work properly.

EMC🧵
1/Image I have spend too many hours on too many days outside an Anechoic RF chamber with EMC test procedures and fiddly oscilloscopes to miss the fact that the drone jamming systems the Russians have deployed on tanks in Ukraine are missing such testing.

Corrugated steel doesn't an effective R/F ground plane make.🙄

2/
 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electroma…Image
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Apr 16 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
While the primary historical mission of the Section 22 special interest group in mapping military history archives is over.

The secondary mission to 'spread the historical wealth' on Japanese radar capabilities in WW2 marks a major achievement.

Daniel Schaefer just successfully defended his doctoral thesis.⬇️

1/
 Image
Image The thesis of newly minted History PhD Daniel Schaefer goes into detail showing how many US Navy carrier planes were lost over Tanapag Harbor at Saipan - due to a Mark 4 Model 3 gun fire-control radar overlooking it -

2/
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Apr 14 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Iran had hard limits in the number of competent launch crews.

The shut down and reopening of Iranian air space was likely Iran discovering how badly their planning was dancing with Miss Rosey Scenario as far as time on target drone & missile launches were concerned.

1/ The additional 24 to 36 hours was the competent IRGC crews checking the work of the noobs and proxies for this strike in progress.

Senator Rubio was briefed on all the additional drone launch sites that radio traffic associated with the competent crews revealed.

2/
Apr 7 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
English Translation:

"Today, the RussiaNoContext channel published a video from the phone of the Russian military, who filmed the first consequences after the explosion of the Kakhovskaya HPP and rejoiced at this act of ecocide against Ukraine.

1/ We will remind that the terrorist attack on the Kakhovskaya HPP was carried out by the Russian occupying forces, the military of the Russian Federation from the 205th Infantry Brigade, around 2:50 a.m. on June 6, 2023.

2/
Mar 24 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Regarding this:

>>no significant damage to the ships is visible.

Fragmentation damage is rarely visible from satellite photos.

The photo intelligence analysts in WW2 hated the use of aerial fragmentation munitions for exactly that reason.

Limits of photo BDA🧵
1/ Aerial bomb fragmentation damage could only be really be captured immediately after detonation...

2/ Image
Mar 23 • 19 tweets • 6 min read
We are seeing a lot of posts and articles on X about Ukraine's OWA drone strategic bombing campaign against Russian refineries .

People, including Jake Sullivan over at the Biden Adm. NSC think this is about AFU cutting off Russian oil.

They're wrong. It's about explosives.
1/ The Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are less about POL than reduction of nitrogen,ammonia and methanol feed stocks for Russian explosives and propellants for it's artillery and missile production.

2/
Mar 22 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
James Dunnigan's Strategypage dot com site has a new piece up titled:

"Russia: Can Russia Continue the War After 2024?"


Russian Lanchester Square collapse indicators🧵

1/strategypage.com/qnd/russia/art… "March 20, 2024: Hard limits are appearing on Russia’s ability to continue the Ukraine war. It has begun running out of tube artillery (as opposed to rocket artillery) and light armored fighting vehicles (AFVs). The artillery shortage is because tube artillery barrels are