Today’s employment report shows the U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in April, a bit below expectations. Revisions to prior months’ estimates were relatively small on net. Through April, the average three-month gain in payrolls was a healthy 242,000. 1/ The unemp. rate ticked up to 3.9% in April, the 27th straight month below 4%, tied for the longest period since the late 1960s. The broadest measure of underemployment, U-6—including those working part-time for economic reasons and the marginally attached—ticked up to 7.4%. 2/

Today’s Employment Cost Index (ECI) release shows that wages for private sector workers grew 1.1% between December and March, slightly higher than the three-month growth of 1.0% through December, and somewhat elevated versus the 0.8% average in 2018 & 2019. 1/ Excluding incentive-paid occupations—in which pay tends to be more volatile—private-sector wage growth was also 1.1%. 2/

Today’s report—the advance estimate of first quarter GDP in 2024—shows that real GDP grew by 1.6% in Q1, below expectations of 2.5%. Growth in Q1 primarily reflected contributions from consumption and private fixed investment. 1/ Real private domestic final purchases (PDFP), which removes net exports, inventory investment, and government spending, is estimated to have grown by 3.1% at an annualized rate, a strong pace. In 2023:H2, real PDFP grew by a similar average pace of 3.2%. 2/

Both headline and core prices as measured by the CPI grew 0.4% from February to March, the same as the increases in the prior month, but both a tick above market expectations. 1/ Year-over-year headline inflation increased 0.3 ppt to 3.5% in March, well below its rate of 5% a year ago. Core inflation was 3.8% over the year, the same as February’s rate and down from 5.6% a year ago. 2/

The clean energy transition is under way, creating an innovative U.S. economy powered by cheap, reliable, and secure clean energy. This transition will address the climate crisis and provide new sources of economic growth, employment, and prosperity. 1/ The United States can meet these goals by accelerating two recent developments:

1. Shift electricity generation from fossil fuels to clean energy.
2. Electrify other sectors to use clean electricity. 2/

Today, the Council of Economic Advisers under the leadership of @econjared46 released the 2024 Economic Report of the President.

whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma… Ch 1, The Benefits of Full Employment, dedicated to the late William Spriggs, examines the macroeconomic and labor market impacts of full employment and tight labor markets, with a particular focus on the benefits for traditionally disadvantaged workers.

whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

Prices as measured by headline CPI grew 0.4% month-over-month in February, at market expectations and above January’s 0.3% increase. Monthly core inflation in February was 0.4%, a tick above expectations and the same as in January. 1/ Year-over-year headline inflation ticked up 0.1 ppt to 3.2% in February, well below its rate of 6% a year ago. Core inflation was 3.8% over the year, a tick below January’s rate and down from 5.5% a year ago. 2/

Prices as measured by headline CPI grew 0.3% month-over-month in January, a tick above market expectations and above December’s 0.2% read. Monthly core inflation in January was 0.4%, also a tick above expectations and December’s 0.3% rate. 1/ Year-over-year headline inflation continued to ease, falling 0.3 ppt to 3.1% in January, well below its rate of 6.4% a year ago. Core inflation was 3.9% over the year, still at an elevated pace, but down from 5.6% last year. 2/

Today’s Personal Income report shows nominal personal income grew by 0.3% between November and December, a solid pace. Both headline and core PCE inflation came in at 0.2%. 1/ Aggregate nominal compensation—reflecting both the number of workers and average pay—grew 0.4% month-over-month, a solid pace in line with its pre-pandemic average. 2/

Today’s employment report shows the U.S. economy added 187,000 jobs in August, slightly above expectations. The average monthly gain over the past 3 months is now 150,000. For context, 100,000 jobs a month is roughly consistent with steady unemployment & participation rates. 1/ Note that employment in truck transportation fell 37,000, primarily driven by the bankruptcy of Yellow. Motion picture & sound recording employment fell 17,000, mostly reflecting effects from the SAG-AFTRA strike. 2/

Prices as measured by headline CPI rose by 0.4 percent month-over-month in April, in line with market expectations and above March’s 0.1 percent growth. Monthly core inflation in April held steady at 0.4 percent, also in line with market expectations. 1/ Year-over-year headline inflation was 4.9 percent in April, the slowest increase since April 2021 and the tenth consecutive month of declines, but still an elevated pace. Core inflation was 5.5 percent, a tick down from March’s rate. 2/

Today the CEA released a blog highlighting a new tax in the President’s budget, the Digital Asset Mining Excise Tax (“DAME Tax”), a tax equal to 30 percent of the cost of the electricity cryptominers use once fully phased in. 1/ whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma… Cryptomining is a process for validating transactions among holders of crypto assets. While crypto assets are virtual, the energy used is very real and imposes substantial costs, as highlighted in this year’s Economic Report of the President. 2/ whitehouse.gov/wp-content/upl…

Prices as measured by headline CPI rose by 0.1 percent month-over-month in March, a tick below market expectations and below February’s 0.4 percent growth. Monthly core inflation in March ticked down to 0.4 percent, at market expectations. 1/ Energy prices declined by 3.5 percent in March, driven by a 7.1 percent decline in natural gas utility prices and a 4.6 percent decline in gasoline prices. 2/

Today, OMB released an important proposed update to Circular A-4, guidance that Federal agencies use to analyze the benefits and costs of proposed Federal regulations. It has not been updated since it was first issued in 2003. 1/ whitehouse.gov/omb/briefing-r… Federal regulations affect issues ranging from environmental protection, to workplace safety, to education, to health. Newly proposed regulations may have billions of dollars in economic impacts in a given year. 2/

Prices as measured by headline CPI rose by 0.5 percent month-over-month in January, at market expectations and above December’s 0.1 percent growth. Monthly core inflation in January held steady at 0.4 percent, also at market expectations. 1/ Note that the January CPI release incorporated updated relative importance weights reflecting more recent purchasing patterns. 2/

Nominal personal income grew by 0.2 percent in December. Aggregate nominal compensation—reflecting both the number of workers and average pay—grew 0.3 percent month-over-month. 1/ Nominal consumer spending fell by 0.2 percent, a slightly faster decline than November’s -0.1 percent. 2/

Today’s report—the advance estimate of fourth quarter GDP in 2022—finds that the U.S. economy grew by 2.9 percent over October, November, and December, primarily reflecting contributions from consumption and inventory investment. 1/ Private domestic final purchases (PDFP), which removes net exports, inventory investment, and government spending, is estimated to have grown by 0.2 percent at an annualized rate. 2/

Prices as measured by headline CPI fell by 0.1 percent month-over-month in December, at market expectations. Monthly core inflation in December ticked up to 0.3 percent, also at market expectations. 1/ Energy prices decreased in December, although the path for energy prices is unclear in the coming months, as world events continue to impact the supply and demand for energy. 2/

Inflation as measured by headline CPI increased 0.1 percent month-over-month in November, below market expectations. Monthly core inflation in November fell to 0.2 percent, slightly below market expectations and the lowest rate since August 2021. 1/ Energy prices decreased in November, while food price growth ticked down to 0.5 percent. 2/

Inflation as measured by headline CPI increased 0.4 percent month-over-month in October, slightly below market expectations. Monthly core inflation in October fell to 0.3 percent, below market expectations. 1/ Energy prices increased in October, while food price growth declined to 0.6 percent. This is the slowest rate for food price growth since December 2021. 2/

Today’s jobs report shows the economy added 261,000 jobs in October, for an average monthly gain of 289,000 over the past three months. 1/ The number of jobs added in October came in above market expectations. Employment in August and September was revised up by a combined 29,000 jobs. 2/