#Somalia: Free version of our Apr 09 analysis, and special report on (45) Mogadishu VBIED incidents/ attacks conducted by #alShabaab between Jan 2017 - Apr 08 2019 vatescorp.com/index.php/inte…

During the period of analysis (45) Mogadishu VBIED incidents/ attacks involved (54) separate VBIEDs, all conducted by #alShabaab, with at least (1,063) victims killed.

The 2017 14 Oct Zobe attack recorded the highest number of casualties during the period with at least 587 victims killed, and at least 316 victims wounded, mostly civilians.

A decline in 2018 Mogadishu #alShabaab VBIEDs was likely attributed to the group shifting their targeting/ temporarily adjusting from civilian towards govt sites, although the group has pivoted back to targeting civilian sites in equal measure.

Nevertheless, (10 of 24) #alShabaab VBIEDs detonating IVO govt sites and (13 of 21) detonating IVO civilian sites, meant 51% Mogadishu VBIEDs detonated within 250m of Makka Al Mukarama Rd between KM 0 and KM 4 during the period.

An area of Mogadishu teeming with civilians on any given day, and considered the most heavily protected central business district of the capital.

Since the analysis was first published on Apr 09, Mogadishu security has continued to deteriorate from #alShabaab Mogadishu VBIEDs in 2019 occurring at a rate of 1 per 12.25 days, to 1 per 11.91 days as of today.

In 2019 to date, #alShabaab has conducted (12) VBIED attacks in Mogadishu, with (3) since 1st Ramadan, and if left undeterred the group is on track to surpass previous years Mogadishu VBIED incidents.

While the world if fixated on #ISIS in recent years, #alShabaab utilise these same harsh tactics under a separate #alQaida banner.

Even during Ramadan #alShabaab propaganda from commander’s such as Mahad Karate attempts to justify these attacks against civilians as ‘legitimate’.

No matter the justification some of the worst atrocities committed by #alShabaab involve VBIEDs, many of which are directed towards innocent Somali Muslims living in Mogadishu.