"Inflation is coming" is now seen as a consensus conclusion. The debate currently is on whether it will be fleeting or sustained.

Penning my prelim thoughts on how and where to invest in an inflationary scenario.

Short thread 🧵
1/n
Inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the price of goods and services. Your investment returns must cover for inflation to avoid loss of purchasing power.
Reading: cnbc.com/2021/05/13/her….
Asset class wise thoughts below:
2/n
1. Equity:

A. Tech platforms: ❌
Inflationary scenario has historically been bad for growth stocks and Tech has had a ferocious rally. Despite recent correction, many names appear overvalued to me. Selectively hold 2 names.

3/n
B. Commodity plays ↔️

Not my strongest suite. Metal commodities have seen a good rally. Bullish on agro commodities given expectation of third consecutive good monsoon. Hold two agro-chem plays and one Ready-to-eat player linked to agri value chain.

4/n
C. Dividend stocks🌱: Bullish

Investing in high dividend yield stocks & companies with cash rich balance sheet offers good headroom to keeping pace with inflation. Cash earns zero returns, defaltes ROE & cos. may want to reward shareholders in this time. Hold the meme stock.
5/n
D. Real Estate: 🤔
In an inflationary scenario, RE is seen as a better hedge than Gold as per statistical data (views not developed).
+ive correlation between RE & inflation. With inventory pipeline, it may lead to better pricing. Not invested.
See chart via @MultipieSocial

6/n Image
E: Building Materials: 👍

Good demand across segments (roofing, piping, flooring, wires/ cables, etc). Unorganized to organized consolidation may finally be happening.
Has already seen some upmove, but expect more juice left. Hold 2 names & planning to increase allocation.

7/n
F. Banking stocks: Cautiously optimistic

These can do well in an inflationary scenario. Subject to NPA risks. The real impact of second wave is an unknown risk for now. So would not recommend going big.

Allied reading: fool.com/investing/2021…

8/n
2. Fixed income:🥱

High yield Fixed income instruments such as bonds, commercial papers, etc with shorter duration and higher yields may be preferred over longer duration instruments. Risk of re-investment to be considered. More popular in HNI & institutional segments.

8/n
3. Crypto🤑

The blue eyed boy! One strong argument in favor of crypto is that it is inherently anti-inflationary (limited supply, unlike printing of Fiat). This is a more detailed topic I am currently studying and would hold views for now. But remember - Crypto ☠️ Doge

9/n
That's it folks. Sketchy thoughts drafted on the go. None of it is an investment advice. But views are invited to discuss and learn.

/end

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26 Jun
Total US population: 33 crores
Total Indians in US: 0.42 crores

Total unicorns in US: 290
Unicorns by NRI Indians: 67

Indians are 1.3% of US population, but have founded 23% of US unicorns! Image
Now imagine the potential of home grown unicorns over the next decade. Talent was never a question, digital infrastructure has been formed in last few years and regulations are more supportive.
One big impediment is the low per capital income in India ($1948) versus USA ($65000), which makes it difficult to sell SaaS/ subscription products to Indian users at scale.

A large young population base should support B2C models, which B2B models will start looking globally.
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@nytimes

nytimes.com/2021/05/03/wor…
Honestly speaking, there are so many folks who have done a lot of (more) good work. Ones I have constantly seen in my network:
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The infographic game for the Indian investing & finance scene has to go up!

(Insightful) data hai, ideas hai, bas ek achha infographic designer chahiye at Multipie (fulltime/ freelance). If you know one, please ask to write to content@multipie.co

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@KirtanShahCFP Thanks for simplifying and sharing about InvITs Kirtan. Some further context from my side:

1. Background: The government has announced an aggressive spend target of ₹100 lakh crore over next five years to revamp India's infrastructure (roads, power transmission, gas pipelines)
@KirtanShahCFP 2. How do they even finance that sum?

Equity in infrastructure is seen as risk prone and Debt (Project Financing) has been scaled down by Banks over last few years
thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/editor…

This is where a structure such as InvIT comes in. Think of it as Mutual Funds, with...
@KirtanShahCFP ..key difference being that these InvITs would hold infrastructure assets instead of financial securities held under MFs.

3. Also the risk-rewards make them a hybrid between Debt and equities - just the right mix in my opinion, if India is to achieve it's aggressive target.
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CRED coins Image
Resemblance to Bread coins in purely co-incidental.
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1. Cost of CRED points to users was zero as these were freely given as a carrot to acquire users.
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