Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #DemonetisationDisaster

Most recents (5)

On the eve of the #2ndAnniversary of the #DeMonetisation that we know was a #DemonetisationDisaster I present a Tweet thread on my analysis of just one of the many claims made for it - that it would boost #cashless #digital transactions. It did not do that. Here's my evidence:
The analysis and paper (Draft 1) is here:
on issuu: issuu.com/home/published…
and
on Scribd: scribd.com/document/39252…
But here in this thread I present the main results. Previous analysts used a simplistic approach of doing a before-after comparison. But this is a spurious method
It leads to the Post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. See rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,…
My analytical approach was simple. I used the figures from RBI and took the monthly data upto Oct 2016 on each idicator and treated it as a regular time series data. (see robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/fpp/)
Read 18 tweets
Let me rewind some of my columns on #DemonetisationDisaster

My last year's detailed take in @frontline_india on

"BLUSTER AS A POLICY"

frontline.in/cover-story/bl…
I concluded that article with the following observations

#DemonetisationDisaster
Of course, in that article I have given an estimate of how much currency is seized as black money due to #DemonetisationDisaster
Read 27 tweets
Here is my take on #DemonetisationDisaster, A CIRCUS, CLOWNS AND A SILVER BULLET.
Special thanks to my co-author Nandakumar (@varunan) whose edit added more firepower.
epaper.nationalheraldindia.com//imageview_878…
Did you know this?

RBI shredded more Demonetised notes (SBN) than the Currency in Circulation in 2017-18..

Yep, demonetisation made all of us CLOWNS
My answer to Arun Jaitley's bragging about IT growth.

As always he uses selective data to sell his narratives.
Read 12 tweets
"In Kerala, there’s no reason to damn the dams" here is my answer to all pundits who are preaching an early opening of Idukki would have saved the flooding of Periyar..

Read it slowly and understand the nuances! nationalheraldindia.com/india/in-keral…
Grab the hardcopy and read @NH_India
I felt depressed when a person who served as the Director of the prestigious IITM says that he has given warning & Kerala has no respect for his warning but Odisha has!!
Oh boy!! I am at a loss if you cant discern cyclones in East coast and extreme rainfall in Western coast
Read 8 tweets
#Demonetisation #Notebandi
1. Thread. Today the Government will try to refute the idea that the RBI numbers on 99.3% of demonetised currency being deposited in banks does not mean Demo was a disaster. Remember the following and watch out for some false arguments as well. 1/n
2. Remember PM Modi told us on 8 November 2016 that the Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes with the corrupt will become worthless pieces of paper. Remember the govt told the Supreme Court that it did not expect 25%-30% of the demonetised currency to be destroyed. Well... 2/n
3. They will now say money coming into banks gives us an idea of who made large deposits and we can now catch the corrupt. Ask them how many of those who made large deposits have been identified, charged & punished since December 2016.The answer is not a single one 3/n
Read 8 tweets

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