Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #numeracy
Most recents (3)
This just out: Physicians do not logically/correctly estimate the probability of outcomes resulting from sequences of events - a thread. #conjunctionfallacy #probability #medicaldecisionmaking #clinicalreasoning #innumeracy #numeracy jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman… @JAMANetworkOpen
In this article, we showed that physicians estimated the probability of two events both occurring as *more* likely than one or both of the individual events. This is logically impossible and consistent with the #conjunctionfallacy. This #bias can lead to catastrophic outcomes
The impetus for the study was an #OBGYN catastrophe that resulted, in part, from this bias. A woman presented in labor w brow presentation. For successful vaginal delivery, 2 events must happen: reversion to deliverable position, and vaginal delivery w/o #caesareansection
This 30ish woman of mean height has a recurrent right spontaneous #PTX 18 months after the first. She has a history of thoracic pain receiving spinal steroid injections; o/w healthy. The best way to get the #diagnosis is (poll next) 
The best way to get the diagnosis is:
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Watch #ASERSouthAsia's webinar on "Understanding foundational numeracy: South Asian perspectives on #ICAN2020 – a new global tool" on our Facebook page 👇
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On Facebook, you will be able to listen to the discussion in English.
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@Pratham_India @palnetworkHQ @AserNepal @ASERPAKISTAN @iidbd @itacecorg
