weekly MARKET RECAP wk3 1/n

• RISK ON continued
• Stocks UP
• Commodities UP
• Spreads tighter
• Ratios UP
• EM UP
• Bonds down

2/n Global Markets YTD

• very strong start (after disastrous 2018 of course),

• "too fast too furious", this velocity won't hold

3/n Global Assets ROC overview

4/n Global Assets YoY

• for some the clock stops 31Dec, others trace YoY comparisons in context with Business Surveys YoY etc

• = while assets rebound 2019, this is a reminder what wall they have to climb yet...

5/n Trends & Exhaustions

• = improving (rebound) in downtrends

6/n Global Yields snapshot

• mixed picture, but relevant US yields wider in profit taking / RiskOn rotation

• "Club Med" South Europe also in RiskOn mode

• Turkish bonds across the curve rallied, should support further Lira. CB left rates unchg,

• no ratings chg across

7/n RiskOnOff Ratios Monitor

• RiskON continues ...

• overhead resistance lurking

8/n US credit spreads monitor

• RiskOn continues

• overhead resistance lurking

9/n European Credit-spreads

CDS basket Indices
• Corp IG & HY
• Financials Senior & Subs

risk premium tigher in RiskOn mode... on rising trend though

10/n US CDX / SPX correlation

• rebound, spreads tighter, stocks up

• CDX Y/Y has not given a buy signal

11/n US CDX / SPX model

• high volatility receded, spreads tighter, but no signal here yet.

12/n CDX SPX regression channels

• long term uptrend been tested, overshot, rebound.

• question remains if this stretched cycle has been peaked and truly rolled over. FED on pause, PBoC stimuli ? ECB stopped QE

13/n US vs EU impl vola

• VIX vs VSTOXX spread moved back to near 4 , oops

14/n US Yield Curves

• remain flat/ partly inverted in the front end

• bull-flattening last part of 2018 now reversing slowly. = RiskOn also reflected here

15/n US YieldCurve vs VIX

• I moved the YC from 36M to 60M fwd as FED QE1,2,3 etc distorted the landscape since 2012ish.

• VIX explosion after FED "far away from neutral, QT on autopilot"

• FED blinked, got the mkt msg, and now collapsed to "FV"

16/n reminder of Global View

... market needs huge stimuli from everywhere to keep going

• FED ? maybe pause
• ECB ? stopped QE but ZIRP
• PBoC ? tries utmost, but needs deval (oops)
• BoJ ? on steroids
• BoE ? on hold due to BREXIT

Global markets need a WEAK USD$

17/n US DASHBOARD

• I got bored and created this new monitor (which I will share with FTT ;-)

• MacroTechnicals AAA rated (lol)

• Macro is deteriorating
• Trend is down
• Momentum is up

18/n SPX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• with all the other 17 sheets before and the Global Picture, Credit spreads etc in mind...

• THIS is (for me) pure TA.
• Expectation Management
• Risk Management
• Probabilities & Possibilities
•Waiting for a roll-over sign now

// THE END

19/n forgot MRI ! sorry

• UoM (flash) dropped to 27M low, Sentiment from 98.3 to 90.7 and Exp from 87.0 to 78.3

• that changed my MRI MacroRiskIndicator to 78.4 and 12sma to 83.6 , -5.2 now

20/n MRI vs SPX (both YoY basis)

• UoM (flash) adjusted now

have a great week ahead.

// now the End of the thread.