MT GLOBAL MARKETS Weekly recap wk13 29Mar19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• overall RiskOn week
• global stocks mixed
• US sectors rallied
• most Global bonds rallied on bull-flattening
• Creditspreads tighter
• VIX down
• no BREXIT deal yet
• Moore-Kudlow-Trump dot-plot

2/n update MTD ranking Global Markets

• US consolidating sectors, Financials hit with YC/rates
• US$ strength = EM trouble
• Global Bond rally on Global economy slowdown concerns
• Turkey got slammed after CRBT shown reserves drop, O/N temporarily 1200%, w/e local elections

3/n update YTD ranked Global Markets

• many market start to consolidate after phenomenal 2019 start (Q4 o/s + FED + global CB turned dovish), but clearly RiskON Q1 2019

4/n update total overview ROC wk/mth/YTD/YoY

5/n update Global Markets Momentum/Trends/Exhaustions

• quite obvious now after a rampage global bond rally signs of possible exhaustion...

• NZ sticks out, NZ50 and ENZL to the moon, dovish RBNZ with further warning of economy slowdown (will show later).

6/n update Global 10Y Govt Yield heatmap

• most markets didn't close at week's low, but still shown one way street on global slowdown concerns , disinflationary momentum and major global central banks turning dovish again

7/n update Global Govt 2Y/10Y/YC

• Bull-flattening in most cases continues, front end and long end yields getting smashed on global slowdown concerns + dovish CB

• US/CA/DE major countries where 10Y trading below CB (UT) rates. wow

8/n few major Central Bank statements last week

• BoJ (unchg -0.1% QQE)

• RBNZ (unchg 1.75% dovish)

• Hungarian CB (unchg key rate, and...drumroll... starts Corp Bonds QE!) welcome to the club - HUF -2.1% this week

9/n quick note regarding "YieldCurve Drama"

• the flattening -or even inversion- of the yield curve is just an early warning sign if it is in the late part of the cycle.

• but it will be the RE-STEEPENING (when market prices in CB cut), signaling the cycle roll over concern

10/n update US 2Y vs 10Y and FF Futures cal spread vs FF (upper target)

• could be temporary,or indeed a game changer.Bonds are more sensitive than other asset classes...this and Moore/Kudlow/Trump call for "immediate 50bp rate cut" either early re-election blame game or else

11/n update US swap curves XXL view

• yes, stocks can go higher for now... but yields and curves tell the future

12/n FOMC dot plot + new "Moore/Kudlow dot"

• FED nominee Moore (moore dovish than others and surely got backed now by Trump)
• Kudlow "greatest economy"

demanding 50bp cut, mkay, that's even "moore" dovish than FF futures curve. pfff. wow

13/n back to weekly: update ITRAXX Corporates & Financials credit risk

• RiskON week as well

14/n update CDX/SPX "model"

• in the middle of nowhere and doesnt say a thing here. just update

15/n update RiskOnOff monitor

16/n oh , btw re: Palladium

• monitored
• monitored
• monitored
• lost focus
• traveled (family issues)
• lost more focus
• finally tanks -17% in a few days, while not involved. story of my life.

17/n US MACRO update permits

• -2.4% without any real momentum (on the big picture)
• ITB or XHB still catching up on previous oversold and anomaly divergence
• S&P/CS index +3.6%, but lowest rise since Nov2012
• MBA 30Y at 4.45% lowest since Jan2018 should help

18/n US Macro UoM Consumer Confidence

• good rebound
• C 113.3 up & beat
• S 98.4 up & beat
• E 88.8 down

"keep stock market up, interest down, and credit card spending will solve the problem"... as long as they can pay

19/n update US MRI macro indicator

• "tongue-in-cheek-model" improved slightly as credit spreads tightened, YC flattened, UoM sentiment better, but remains "overbought in late stretched cycle"

20/n update US dashboard wk13

• (not seen here: Chicago PMI ↓, Chicago Fed activity ↓, Dallas Fed ↓, Richmond Fed ↓, Kansas Fed ↑)

• next week ISM/ global M.PMI data

• UoM up, Creditspreads tighter, rates lower, all positive

• FF cal spreads signal amber

21/n CHINA M.PMI (NBR)

too much noise about this. if that index is at 49something, or a hair over the "magic" 50, what's the point? If the dynamic goes EITHER way, THAN let's focus. But, yes, it's a small improvement.

22/n FWIW = CFTC COT update

• the massive shorts in 2Y and Ultra30Y is compensated by the AM massive longs.

• HF flipped short HG and HO.

23/the end

remember, this is all "food for thoughts". some guys - mostly hiding behind avatars and therefore big mouths - try to attack me, troll me etc. If you don't like it, ignore me, mute me. that simple. If this has value for someone else, I am happy.

cheers.