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did some digging regarding US buyback vs FF rates...
Historical data shows some variety, nevertheless, I tried my best to overlay the average I found over the annual FF (3y shift/inv scale). Not to be predictive, but interesting.
Discussion y'day:
Historical data shows some variety, nevertheless, I tried my best to overlay the average I found over the annual FF (3y shift/inv scale). Not to be predictive, but interesting.
Discussion y'day:
even if this "slows down" to $350b-$450b range over the next 3 years as interest rates increased (but now on hold), it still would bring strong stock demand, but also further increases debt/equity ratio.
another viewpoint: not too long after buyback peak, stock market peaked in general, which is not a coincidence.
And it doesn't look like buybacks are thriving to a new peak (as interest rates foreshadow peaks).
And it doesn't look like buybacks are thriving to a new peak (as interest rates foreshadow peaks).
...which would mean,
• global M.PMI peaked
• ISM peaked
• US swap curve 5s30s bottomed
• FF bottomed anyways
• credit spreads bottomed
• buybacks peaked
• VIX bottomed
...
• US stocks making new highs, but very very very late cycle
• global M.PMI peaked
• ISM peaked
• US swap curve 5s30s bottomed
• FF bottomed anyways
• credit spreads bottomed
• buybacks peaked
• VIX bottomed
...
• US stocks making new highs, but very very very late cycle
and no, I am not a perma-bear, just trying to be flexible and watching a few things trying to make sense in a Macro and Technical perspective. If FED shifts, sentiment shifts, technicals shifts, breadth shifts, RiskOff turns to RiskOn. Doesn't mean Dec2018 started a new cycle
