DELAYED RECAP monthly MT GLOBAL M.PMI surveys Apr2019 thread 1/n (probably 30) (as of May2nd)

• Global Biz confidence remained at 2.5Y lows
• DM notch higher
• EM barely > 50
• F5 6M low

= global slowdown continues
= global centralbanks dovish
= disinflationary

2/n Global M.PMI heatmap

• Canada joined <50 club, 38M low
• Germany still 44+
• Austria joined <50 club, 4Y low
• Switzerland joined <50 club, 4Y low
• Czech 76M low
• Sweden 32M low
• Singapore 29M low
• China hovers at 50

...

3/n Global M.PMI in relevance to GDP distribution

• I'd be more stock bullish if those "bubbles" shift to the right quads
• turning into left quads is actually bond bullish

4/n Global M.PMI ranked DM vs EM

• a) GDP contribution relevance
• b) PCTL/YoY/last

• Greece at 11.5Y HIGH is nice, but not <that> relevant...

5/n Global M.PMI "breadth"

• number of countries rebounding, first sign of improving, but really, the GDP weighted indices keep making new lows.

6/n Global M.PMI "big 4 regions"

• US stable
• China 50.2
• Europe 47.9 remains in dire
• Japan rebound to 50.2

still, thats not global growth

7/n Global M.PMI vs freight costs

• yes, we had a few twitter discussions about it, but it moves in cycles... overshipping, supply chain for commodities etc

8/n Global M.PMI vs Commodities

9/n Global M.PMI vs Global Stocks

• $ACWI
• $EEM

10/n Global M.PMI US ISM

• vs $SPX
• vs US10Y

(as of May2nd)

11/n Global M.PMI US ISM

• vs CreditRisk (CDX)
• vs StockRisk ( $VIX )

(as of May2nd) ;-)

12/n Global M.PMI Europe "big 4"

• Germany remains at 44+
• France sneaked to 50.0
• Italy improved to 4M high 49.1
• Spain 3M high to 51.8

good news, it's a start, maybe #ECB

13/n Global M.PMI Europe 2

• vs STOXX
• vs EUR
• vs VSTOXX
• vs CreditRisk

(as of May2nd)

14/n Global M.PMI Europe 3

• Germany vs DAX
• France vs CAC
• Italy vs MIB
• Spain vs IBEX
• UK vs FTSE and GBP

15/n Global major 10Y yields

• sample US, DE, JP, AU

• trend is still intact

16/n Global 2s10s YieldCurves

• sample US, DE, JP, AU

17/n US Rates snapshot

• FF futures pricing in rate cuts in 2020 NOT because it's a fantastic growing economy

• Bonds rallied across the board

18/n US impl FF cuts vs Copper/Gold

• implied inflation and diverging ratios, great stuff

19/n US market SPX vs some RiskOnOFF ratios

• XLY / XLP
• XLI / XLU
• HYG / IEF
• LQD / TLH

momentum was fading...

20/n US market SPX vs VIX

• is this a Deja-vu ?? lol

• rising wedge
• RSI divergence
• VIX in complacency

• this plus the recent M.PMI divergence, a correction was on the cards (let alone the elevated annualised YTD performance)

• Correction or Roll-over to be seen

21/n that's all folks ;-)

sorry for delay, but as always, big picture view is a process and forms the bias, technicals for timing.

And before some guys attack me: there is no one only way set up. There are plenty. Some smart, some complex, some easier. No holy grail.

cheers