The bounce off the recent lows appears to be a relief rally within an ongoing bear-market.
Liquidity conditions, rising rates and valuations suggest ~15% decline in $SPX before hitting *the* low.
It'll be interesting to see if beaten down growth stocks show relative strength.
Liquidity conditions, rising rates and valuations suggest ~15% decline in $SPX before hitting *the* low.
It'll be interesting to see if beaten down growth stocks show relative strength.
The reason I've scaled into growth stocks is because they've already declined 50-80% and their valuations have become either cheap or fair; thus conceivable they might bottom before the indices.
In any event, my exposure is hedged via $ARKK short + am also short index futures.
In any event, my exposure is hedged via $ARKK short + am also short index futures.
If the indices decline (likely) and growth stocks get caught in the selling, my $ARKK short/hedge will defend my capital and my index futures shorts will generate profits.
If the indices and $ARKK rally, my stops will get hit with small losses and my portfolio will be long.
If the indices and $ARKK rally, my stops will get hit with small losses and my portfolio will be long.
In investing, there is a time to be aggressive and there is a time for caution.
Given the abrupt end of QE, rate hikes + stretched valuations at the index level, this is a time for defence.
Bear-markets are deceptive with violent rallies which feel real but ultimately fail.
Given the abrupt end of QE, rate hikes + stretched valuations at the index level, this is a time for defence.
Bear-markets are deceptive with violent rallies which feel real but ultimately fail.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
