Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. Email: press@understandingwar.org. For more: https://t.co/FO1PVyOnYB
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Apr 29 4 tweets 2 min read
The continued Russian stabilization of their salient northwest of Avdiivka presents the Russian command with a choice of continuing to push west towards its reported operational objective in Pokrovsk or trying to drive northwards to conduct possible complementary offensive operations with the Russian effort around Chasiv Yar. (1/4)Image 2/ Ukrainian officials have previously identified Pokrovsk as the Russian operational objective in the Avdiivka direction, and Syrskyi reiterated this assessment on April 28. Image
Apr 29 10 tweets 3 min read
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on April 28 that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) and Semenivka (west of Avdiivka) to positions further west in order to preserve Ukrainian personnel. 🧵
Image 2/ Syrskyi acknowledged that Russian forces are making tactical advances northwest of Avdiivka, and Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces have deployed up to four brigades to their tactical penetration in the Ocheretyne (northwest of Avdiivka) area.
Apr 29 5 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Recent Russian gains NW of Avdiivka have prompted Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions west of Avdiivka. These withdrawals have yet to facilitate rapid Russian tactical gains & don't portend an operationally significant penetration in the near term. 🧵Image 2/ Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on April 28 that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Berdychi (northwest of Avdiivka) and Semenivka (west of Avdiivka) to positions further west in order to preserve Ukrainian personnel. Image
Apr 28 6 tweets 3 min read
Russian forces are continuing to exploit a tactical penetration north and northwest of Avdiivka and recently made additional confirmed advances in the area. 🧵(1/6)

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2/ Geolocated footage published on April 27 shows that Russian forces advanced to northern Novokalynove (north of Avdiivka), and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces completely seized the settlement on April 27.
Apr 28 7 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Russia will likely make significant tactical gains in the coming weeks as Ukraine waits for US security assistance to arrive at the front but Russian forces remain unlikely to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. 🧵Image
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2/ The arrival of US aid at the front in the coming weeks will allow Ukrainian forces to address their current materiel constraints and blunt ongoing Russian offensive operations...
Apr 26 8 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Western media continues to report that select US officials have resumed discussing the idea of “freezing the lines” where they are because the latest package of US military assistance to Ukraine may not be enough for Ukraine to regain all of its territory. (🧵1/8)Image
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2/ Supporters of the current package have not claimed that it would by itself allow Ukraine to liberate all occupied territory, and the discussion of possible end states of the war is very premature as Pres. Biden signed the bill authorizing the new package only two days ago.
Apr 26 8 tweets 2 min read
Russian offensive operations west of Avdiivka aim to exploit opportunities for tactical gains while the Russian offensive operation to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances. 🧵(1/8)

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2/ Russian forces in the Avdiivka area remain roughly 30 kilometers from their reported operational objective of Pokrovsk and roughly 17 kilometers from relatively large villages east of Pokrovsk.
Apr 26 8 tweets 3 min read
NEW: Russian forces are stabilizing their small salient northwest of Avdiivka and may make further tactical gains that could cause Ukrainian forces to withdraw from other tactical positions along the frontline west of Avdiivka to a more defensible line. 🧵(1/8)Image
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2/ Geolocated footage published on April 25 indicates that Russian forces advanced into central Solovyove (northwest of Avdiivka) from Novobakhmutivka after likely seizing all of Novobakhmutivka on the night of April 24 to 25. Image
Apr 25 5 tweets 2 min read
The United States reportedly provided an unspecified number of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in March 2024, some of which Ukraine has already used to strike Russian targets in deep rear areas. 🧵(1/5)
Image 2/ US officials told Western media that the United States will include additional long-range ATACMS missiles as part of the announced $1 billion tranche of security assistance for Ukraine.
Apr 25 5 tweets 3 min read
NEW: US President Joe Biden announced on April 24 that the US will begin sending military equipment to Ukraine “a few hours” after signing a bill that will provide roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine.🧵(1/5)Image
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2/ Russian forces have recently intensified offensive operations east of Chasiv Yar and northwest of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast in an effort to take advantage of the limited window before US security assistance arrives in Ukraine.
Apr 24 4 tweets 2 min read
Additional key takeaways:

The Chechen Republic appears to be trying to align itself more closely with Iran over the backdrop of intensifying bilateral security cooperation between Russia and Iran. (1/4)
Image 2/ United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the UK’s largest-ever package of military assistance to Ukraine valued at 500 million pounds (around $662 million) on April 23.
Apr 24 9 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu highlighted ongoing Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City and announced Russia’s intent to intensify its strike campaign to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. (1/9)Image
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2/ Shoigu is likely trying to broadly depict the various ongoing Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine as equally successful despite mixed and limited tactical Russian success in these directions.
Apr 23 9 tweets 3 min read
Russian forces appear to be aiming to make a wide penetration of Ukrainian lines northwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, but their ability to do so will likely be blunted by the arrival of US and other Western aid to the frontline. 🧵(1/9)
Image 2/ Russian forces have committed roughly a reinforced division’s worth of combat power (comprised mainly of four Central Military District [CMD] brigades) to the Berdychi-Novokalynove line northwest of Avdiivka.
Apr 22 6 tweets 2 min read
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on April 21 that elements of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces seized Bohdanivka (northeast of Chasiv Yar), but ISW has not observed visual evidence confirming this claim. (1/6)

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2/ A prominent Russian milblogger similarly claimed that Ukrainian forces recently withdrew from their remaining positions in the southwestern part of Bohdanivka but did not provide visual evidence to confirm this claim.
Apr 22 7 tweets 2 min read
NEW: US Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Senator Mark Warner reported on April 21 that US provisions of military aid to Ukraine, including long-range ATACMS missiles, will be in transit to Ukraine "by the end of the week" if the Senate passes the supplemental appropriations bill on April 23 and US President Joe Biden signs it by April 24.Image
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2/ Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on April 21 that the swift delivery of US military aid to Ukraine could allow Ukrainian forces to stabilize the frontline and seize the initiative.
Apr 21 5 tweets 2 min read
NEW: The US House of Representatives passed a supplemental appropriations bill on April 20 providing for roughly $60 billion of assistance to Ukraine. The bill must now be passed by the Senate and signed by the president before aid can begin to flow. 🧵(1/5)Image 2/ These requirements and the logistics of transporting US materiel to the frontline in Ukraine will likely mean that new US assistance will not begin to affect the situation on the front line for several weeks.
Apr 20 6 tweets 2 min read
More Key Takeaways from the April 19, 2024 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: ⬇️

Ukrainian forces downed a Russian aircraft as it conducted missile strikes for the first time overnight on April 18-19, demonstrating a capability that may constrain how Russia conducts its strike campaign against Ukraine. 2/ Ukrainian air defense capabilities remain limited and degraded, however, allowing Russian aircraft to operate freely without threat on certain critical areas of the front.
Apr 19 5 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signaled Russia’s intent to seize Kharkiv City in a future significant Russian offensive operation. (🧵1/5)Image
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2/ Lavrov is the first senior Kremlin official to outright identify the city as a possible Russian operational objective following recent Ukrainian warnings that Russian forces may attempt to seize the city starting in Summer 2024.
Apr 19 4 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Unnamed senior US officials said that the PRC is supplying Russia with equipment that Russia is using to rapidly increase military production for use in its war against Ukraine. Image 2/ The officials said on April 12 that the PRC is selling Russia large quantities of machine tools, drone and turbojet engines, technology for cruise missiles, microelectronics, and nitrocellulose used in ammunition.
Apr 19 5 tweets 2 min read
The Russo-Iranian military coalition was formed in 2015 when Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Major General Qassem Soleimani went to Moscow to seek help in keeping Bashar al Assad in power in Syria. 1/5 🧵 Image 2/ Russo-Iranian military cooperation has expanded dramatically since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Apr 19 7 tweets 2 min read
NEW: Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov specified that the Russian offensive effort that Ukrainian officials have been forecasting will likely begin in June 2024 and aim to seize all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. 🧵Image
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2/ Budanov stated in an April 17 article in the Washington Post that Russia will launch a “big” offensive in June 2024 to seize all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Previous major Russian offensive efforts have similarly aimed to seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.