As the Tory Leadership election nears its conclusion, and post-Darroch fiasco, I have made a new #BrexitDiagram - series 3, version 7

#Brexit

As ever, high res PNGs and PDFs are on my blog, as is the .ods file used to calculate the probabilities:
jonworth.eu/brexit-what-ne…

Note the .ods file has a new structure for this version, allowing you to change the probabilities per node easily and see the impact

The changes here - in comparison to V6 from a fortnight ago:
General Election - 66% (⬆️ from 61%)
#PeoplesVote - 9% (⬆️ from 4%)
No Deal - 13% (⬇️ from 19%)
Further Art 50 Ext - 6% (⬇️ from 8%)
Exit with Deal - 6% (⬇️ from 8%)

If you think my 60% chance that enough Tory MPs cross the House before Johnson is confirmed as PM is too optimistic, and you reduce that to just 10%, it makes little difference to overall outcome - that puts GE up to 69% and #PeoplesVote down to 5%

Three articles have especially influenced my thinking for this version:

@ConUnit_UCL "Six constitutional questions raised by the election of the new Conservative leader"
constitution-unit.com/2019/06/30/six…

@jonlis1 "Make no mistake: Britain is on the cusp of a constitutional crisis of epic proportions" prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/make-…

@MSmithsonPB "Johnson looks a certainty as YouGov CON members’ poll has him leading 74-26" www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch…

I'll be presenting this new version at the Freudenstadt Symposium on European Regionalism this weekend.

And - as ever - feedback and critique are very welcome!

/ends

Thanks to an astute observation by @UBFriccardo I was missing an option that Johnson himself would call a People's Vote. That has been added in Version 7.1