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While there is still considerable uncertainty over the forecast for #inflation, we think both Core #CPI and #PCE inflation peaked in March and February, respectively, and should move appreciably lower by the end of 2022.

Throughout the pandemic, strong disposable #income and limited services spending fueled consumer #spending on goods and high goods volumes created #bottlenecks and extreme #inflation.

Eventually, excessively easy #MonetaryPolicy caused this robust #inflation to broaden into less disrupted categories.

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Luca Dellanna

@DellAnnaLuca

The London Ambulance Service operates 450 ambulances; 2500 extra calls a day means an extra ~5 calls per ambulance.

Actually, 100 can’t be operated because staff is sick. So it’s an extra 7 calls per ambulance.

#bottlenecks

https://twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1472297089614893057

Meanwhile, three months ago

The ambulance service asked help to the fire brigades, but their staff is sick too.

Read 5 tweets

Hyun Song Shin

@HyunSongShin

The opening seminar for the Indonesian G20 presidency was a good opportunity to take stock of #bottlenecks and #inflation risks

A thread follows

bis.org/speeches/sp211…

https://twitter.com/BIS_org/status/1468874062227288068

Supply bottlenecks have grabbed all the headlines recently, but longer-term structural changes brought about by the pandemic (labour markets, especially) are important to understand where we are headed

bis.org/publ/bisbull47…

But first, a recap of where we stand on #bottlenecks

The sharp swings in some commodity prices (lumber, iron ore, coal) are suggestive of #bullwhip effects

For their part, shipping costs look to have peaked

Read 26 tweets

Hyun Song Shin

@HyunSongShin

The inflation surge has brought #bottlenecks under the spotlight

Today's #BIS_Bulletin takes a closer look at what's going on and what we might encounter going forward

A short thread follows
bis.org/publ/bisbull48…

Bottlenecks started out as disruptions to supply, but they have morphed into something more

Key point to bear in mind: in aggregate at least, supply has caught up to pre-pandemic levels in key sectors like semi-conductors as well as in raw materials and shipping

So, what then is going on?

Two factors are key: (1) shift in composition of demand and (2) the endogenous changes in behaviour that's given rise to bullwhip effects

Let me takes these in turn

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