Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #IA03

Most recents (24)

New from me @TheSpectator:

Democrats in Washington, DC and Iowa are now led by a pair of election deniers.

thespectator.com/topic/iowa-dem…

(1/xx)
Following a disastrous cycle, @iowademocrats have elected @RitaHartIA, one of their party’s most prominent 2020 election deniers, to helm them into a critical 2024.

thespectator.com/topic/iowa-dem…

(2/xx)
The decision by @iowademocrats comes weeks after @HouseDemocrats threw out their old leadership and elected veteran election denier Hakeem Jeffries to run their caucus.

I wrote about that @TheSpectator here:

thespectator.com/topic/twilight…



(3/xx)
Read 20 tweets
So, here's how redistricting and, in some cases, gerrymandering, helped the Republicans take the House:

Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Democrats had full control over redistricting in 7 states (IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR and RI).

There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
And there was 1 state in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Democrats could override them (NY).

Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
Read 23 tweets
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
GOP House math coming into focus:

206 seats are locked down.

R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.

That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
The easiest path to 4:

#CA41 Calvert (R) holds a Trump seat as more votes come in.

#WA03 Kent (R) comes back as late votes typically break R in WA.

#AZ01 Schweikert (R) comes back as late votes are generally pro-R in Arizona.

#CA27 Garcia (R) holds his 15-point lead.
Republicans are also bullish on #CT05, which is very close. R's lead #OR05 by 4 and #CA22 by 8, but with more mail-ballot uncertainty (the NYT needle sees R's as modest favorites in both).

Regardless, it's a wait-and-see game with Western mail votes.
Read 3 tweets
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).

+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning

Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.

#Election2022 Image
Note especially: 3 (of 10 total) GOP "Toss up" seats have already been called for Democratic Victory.
#NC13 #OH01 #TX34.

On the Dem "Toss up" side, there's #VA02 which flipped Red. But that's it.
In summary, of currently held Dem seats, only 1 flipped Dem-> GOP (#VA02), with 6 races leaning GOP.

On the other hand, of current GOP seats, 4 have flipped GOP->Dem (#MT01, #NC13, #OH01, #TX34) and 7 lean Democrats.

I think the Democrats will win the US House. Image
Read 22 tweets
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.

Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace. ImageImageImage
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NY17 $2,593,204
#IL06 $1,913,350
#NV03 $1,509,471
#CA47 $1,484,309
#NV01 $1,447,925
#PA07 $1,419,827
#CA49 $1,343,586
#NY04 $1,324,750
#CA13 $1,162,594
#TX34 $1,050,079
#VA07 $1,031,830
#IL17 $996,760
#IN01 $899,304
#NY18 $786,512
#MN02 $653,079
Tonight's CLF buys (2/3)

#CA22 $646,452
#WA08 $644,145
#OR05 $636,737
#CT05 $604,832
#NY19 $599,291
#NC13 $594,582
#PA17 $567,250
#ME02 $527,500
#RI02 $506,313
#NY22 $497,750
#MI07 $453,800
#OR06 $447,500
#OH13 $402,750
#TX28 $356,186
#OH01 $340,851
#AZ06 $320,051
#AZ01 $310,380
Read 5 tweets
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...

$45.9 million in 57 House races...

adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
Tonight's HMP buys (1/4)

#NY03 $2,091,249
#NY18 $1,987,496
#NJ11 $1,961,501
#NJ05 $1,961,476
#PA07 $1,687,355
#IL17 $1,674,366
#TX28 $1,579,645
#VA07 $1,480,888
#MI07 $1,480,436
#PA17 $1,366,568
#MN02 $1,349,450
#NY19 $1,317,868
#NH01 $1,262,355
#CA13 $1,170,657
#NH02 $1,083,220
Tonight's HMP buys (2/4)

#NY04 $1,073,658
#AZ01 $1,054,068
#WA08 $1,050,275
#TX34 $1,034,351
#OR06 $1,008,020
#OH13 $961,300
#IN01 $947,522
#NV01 $902,915
#PA08 $882,593
#IL13 $866,533
#NM02 $840,709
#NY22 $804,598
#OH01 $759,588
#CO08 $746,912
#ME02 $726,274
#NC13 $710,544
Read 6 tweets
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07 $1,374,911
#ME02 $1,352,673
#MN02 $1,258,023
#OH13 $1,154,607
#NY22 $997,406
#VA07 $982,903
#CA22 $950,397
#PA08 $877,281
#TX28 $854,057
#PA17 $836,060
#NH01 $787,150
#WA08 $741,749
#IL17 $627,333
#NY19 $563,935
#NM02 $527,100
#PA07 $508,737
Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17 $492,456
#CO08 $484,379
#AZ06 $460,274
#RI02 $458,462
#NE02 $437,216
#CA27 $395,668
#CT05 $359,491
#TX34 $356,517
#IA03 $351,819
#MI08 $349,054
#NJ07 $334,947
#VA02 $323,999
#CA45 $290,779
Read 4 tweets
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Today's CLF buys (1/3)

#CA47 $1,682,483
#PA07 $1,539,925
#NY17 $1,518,158
#NV03 $1,503,351
#NV01 $1,455,758
#IN01 $1,014,589
#VA07 $991,831
#CA13 $945,284
#NJ07 $833,186
#NY19 $770,181
#CA49 $769,283
#TX34 $738,255
#WA08 $715,288
#CA22 $711,987
#OR05 $680,714
#PA17 $665,653
Today's CLF buys (2/3)

#TX28 $636,376
#CO08 $624,456
#IL17 $611,310
#CT05 $608,112
#NC13 $582,079
#ME02 $548,414
#NY22 $498,339
#RI02 $486,313
#MN02 $472,556
#VA02 $405,567
#FL27 $393,568
#OH01 $343,088
#AZ06 $329,402
#CA45 $294,819
#NE02 $259,178
#MI07 $249,885
#NY18 $222,852
Read 5 tweets
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65. ImageImage
Tonight's HMP buys (1/3)

#NJ05 $1,959,458
#PA07 $1,720,125
#MI07 $1,507,533
#VA07 $1,284,208
#TX28 $1,259,722
#CA13 $1,206,064
#NH01 $1,196,950
#MN02 $1,176,281
#IL17 $958,645
#IN01 $953,087
#PA17 $915,645
#NV01 $887,864
#NY19 $846,081
#WA08 $813,814
#OH13 $795,000
Read 6 tweets
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
ImageImageImage
Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07$1,499,784
#ME02$1,350,223
#MN02$1,250,208
#OH13$1,009,066
#CA22$941,557
#PA08$894,614
#PA17$846,908
#TX28$825,989
#NH01$815,750
#CA27$780,526
#WA08$724,356
#NY22$721,327
#CA45$645,465
#VA07$590,931
#NY19$563,935
Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17$527,193
#NM02$518,428
#PA07$505,183
#RI02$491,255
#IL17$490,579
#NE02$459,022
#AZ06$458,425
#IA03$421,218
#TX34$408,778
#CT05$401,871
#VA02$370,614
#NJ07$333,561
#MI08$320,974
#WI03$62,744
#CO08$28,296
#PA12$9,200
Read 4 tweets
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
Today's HMP buys (1/3)

#NV01 $1,409,339
#NV04 $1,085,708
#NV03 $1,063,115
#CA22 $1,058,595
#NH01 $1,037,920
#NY19 $961,780
#TX28 $929,827
#OH13 $870,198
#MN02 $739,191
#WA08 $738,334
#IN01 $686,882
#KS03 $646,562
#CO08 $590,088
#OR06 $587,541
#NY22 $491,388
#TX34 $460,863
Today's HMP buys (2/3)

#OH01 $459,646
#CA49 $436,650
#RI02 $409,455
#PA17 $379,011
#NC01 $345,232
#NE02 $312,778
#GA02 $210,676
#OH09 $205,321
#NJ07 $171,807
#IA03 $164,363
#IL13 $158,950
#CA13 $123,963
#MI08 $116,751
#VA07 $105,000
#NY03 $91,071
#AZ04 $86,070
#MI07 $58,083
Read 4 tweets
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.

It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
ImageImageImage
Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#ME02 $1,348,132
#OH13 $1,228,652
#MN02 $1,090,377
#CA22 $973,825
#WA08 $876,994
#PA17 $848,163
#NH01 $787,150
#CA27 $782,726
#CA45 $778,488
#PA07 $690,861
#NY19 $615,810
#PA08 $572,138
#IA03 $528,673
#NM02 $521,473
#AZ06 $459,696
#NE02 $440,622
Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NJ07 $361,411
#MI08 $305,405
#WI03 $302,698
#TX28 $149,853
#TX15 $142,658
#NY17 $112,060
#VA07 $93,710
Read 4 tweets
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.

CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,429,474
#NV01 $1,422,146
#PA07 $1,047,124
#NJ07 $901,401
#CO08 $881,835
#CA47 $841,483
#OR05 $821,203
#IL17 $726,494
#FL27 $651,174
#MN02 $650,074
#NY19 $646,069
#VA07 $631,866
#CA13 $629,151
#MI07 $618,935
#TX28 $616,752
#CA22 $604,211
Read 5 tweets
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.

docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
Today's @CLFSuperPAC buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,494,562
#NV01 $1,181,949
#PA07 $1,022,681
#NH01 $981,150
#CO08 $934,807
#OR05 $773,033
#IN01 $740,075
#IL17 $711,513
#MN02 $684,808
#CA13 $678,224
#VA07 $663,140
#MI07 $644,028
#TX34 $615,633
#CA49 $584,838
#OH13 $565,159
#NY19 $553,155
Read 6 tweets
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.

The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC. ImageImage
Today's DCCC buys (1/3)

#MI07 $1,023,595
#WA08 $914,082
#CA13 $887,013
#TX28 $877,736
#PA07 $822,504
#VA07 $738,010
#CO08 $724,286
#NC01 $678,431
#NH01 $670,977
#OH13 $624,694
#MN02 $603,123
#NY19 $578,924
#GA02 $577,265
#AZ04 $574,484
#OR05 $568,706
Today's DCCC buys (2/3)

#IL17 $564,045
#OH01 $562,891
#OR06 $517,844
#PA17 $515,834
#VA02 $491,375
#MI03 $474,695
#NY22 $434,336
#MI08 $426,641
#KS03 $406,528
#NM02 $356,148
#PA08 $324,212
#IA03 $202,940
#NV03 $192,497
#OR04 $189,071
#NV01 $174,997
#CA49 $59,999
Read 6 tweets
Democrats’ Infrastructure Deal will provide a massive fix for our nation’s roads, bridges, ports, and so much more.

These are real, substantial wins for our communities — so here’s a snapshot on how a few will benefit: 🧵
𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗡𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗖𝗨𝗧: Did you know 1 in 10 Connecticut households currently do not have internet?

Rep. @JahanaHayesCT helped deliver Dems’ Infrastructure deal to fix this. #CT05
courant.com/politics/hc-po…
𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗛𝗔𝗠𝗣𝗦𝗛𝗜𝗥𝗘: Rep. @ChrisPappasNH helped secure $2,000,000,000 for NH to fix the 250 bridges and nearly 700 miles of highway in poor condition, providing safer commutes for NH communities. #NH01
thecentersquare.com/new_hampshire/…
Read 14 tweets
IOWA: is often held up as the "gold standard" for apolitical redistricting. Every 10 years, it tasks nonpartisan state bureaucrats w/ drafting maps, and counties are kept whole. But, maps are still subject to legislature/governor approval, and this round Rs control both.
Rep. Cindy Axne (D)'s #IA03 is the only D seat left in the state, and it's also IA's fastest-growing. It'll need to shed ~60k people.

In 2020, she won by 1.4% while losing every county except Polk (Des Moines). So, a more Des Moines-centric district would be good news for her.
One possibility: the state panel could propose one compact central Iowa district (Des Moines/Ames) that would have voted for Biden, surrounded by three Trump districts.

But until we have exact census numbers, IA's remap prospects are difficult to game out.
Read 4 tweets
Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.

For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
Biden/R districts (9):

#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne

Trump/D districts (7/8?):

#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016.
Read 3 tweets
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Read 27 tweets
House Democratic challengers

Kevin McCarthy -
@KimMangone

Matt Gaetz-
@PhilEhr

Devin Nunes -
@PhilArballo2020

Jim Jordan -
@ShannonFreshour

(Mark Meadows seat)
@ColMorrisDavis

Elise Stefanik -
@TedraCobb

John Ratcliffe -
@RussellFosterTX
@KimMangone @PhilEhr @PhilArballo2020 @ShannonFreshour @ColMorrisDavis @TedraCobb @RussellFosterTX @BrigidforSJ Thank you to everyone who is adding on, I'm liking them then I can go back and add to this thread, keep them coming.👍
Read 21 tweets
Time for super pacs to start running ads in these districts letting voters know if these people vote for impeachment, they get voted out. Period.
We're gonna make these people famous today

From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:

You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.

Voting for censure is your only way out
HERE THEY ARE

PRESSURE THEM TO VOTE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT. ONLY CENSURE CAN SAVE THEM.

Tom O’Halleran #AZ01

@RepOHalleran

@TomOHalleran

(202) 225-3361

Lucy McBath #GA06

@RepLucyMcBath

@LucyMcBath

(202) 225-4501
Read 11 tweets
#MarchforTrump 📢👟🇺🇸💯

Men & Women! 💃🕺

October 17th @ 10 AM

US Capitol AND Locations across the country!

TrumpMarch.com

#KAG #MAGA #WomenForTrump #stopimpeachmentnow #StandWithTrump #standwithPOTUS
🚨🚨🚨

📢We will be having protests outside of congressional district offices in the following districts.📢
Read 5 tweets

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