Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #OPEC

Most recents (24)

On my podcast, I read my @Medium column, "Ideas Lying Around," describing a #TheoryOfChange for unrigging markets, addressing the climate emergency, building worker power and saving news publishers from #BigTech:

doctorow.medium.com/ideas-lying-ar…

1/ A workbench with a pegboard...
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

pluralistic.net/2023/06/12/onl…

2/
What is this amazing theory of change, that can do so much to right the world's wrongs? Fittingly, it's the same theory of change that got us into this mess. It's #MiltonFriedman's theory of change.

3/
Read 46 tweets
OPEC PLUS Oil Update: June 2023

#OPEC have announced another cut in oil production, to try and resurrect the oil price. A reduction in oil price hits the income for Russia, and it can be devastating for russian revenue.

The last time the oil price collapsed back in 1998 -… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… ImageImageImageImage
Russian oil price (quoted as Urals) - is falling fast and is now at or below break even for production cost. Image
Read 4 tweets
1/n This #thread will argue that a unique set of historical contingencies has obscured a looming problem for the #oil mkt, one which has been *delayed* by unprecedented events & interventions but not negated. We believe that in 6-8 wks the mkt will be subject to extreme turmoil
/2 RECENCY BIAS: one can hardly read an article on oil w/out being told of crude’s supposed ‘weakness’ since last June’s highs, often accompanied by de rigueur chart crimes showing month-after-month of lower prices. These charts, of course, cherry-pick a ST price spike to make
/3 the case that Demand has somehow collapsed. This is nonsense & ignores the extraordinary SPR maneuvers that were employed in the wake of Russia’s invasion. Simply put, if ~600k b/d are dumped from the SPR, oil prices should drop, & they did. Extra SUPPLY. 222mm bbbls. Historic
Read 16 tweets
1/ Quello che (convenientemente) tanti analisti-atlantisti non osano dire è che la nomina di #DiMaio è nomina U$A. Spinta, forse sì, da Draghi (anche se Di Maio gravita in "zona U$A" da luglio 2018) ma voluta da oltre-oceano.

Perché gli U$A hanno voluto Di Maio? (segue)
2/ Gli U$A hanno voluto #DiMaio in quel ruolo chiave perché gli servirà un "totalmente devoto" (come lo sono Von der Leyen e altri pupazzi UE) quando i tagli alla produzione di greggio da parte di Opec+ (1mln/barili-die) e Russia (-5% su prod. totale) saranno effettivi

(segue)
3/ A brevissimo inizieranno a sentirsi gli effetti di questi tagli (#Opec e taglio russo alla produzione di greggio) e tutte le economie occidentali saranno messe a durissima prova.
Le colonie (U$A) europee dovranno resistere per "tenere a galla" la madrepatria 🤮 U$A.

(segue)
Read 6 tweets
地球正義聯盟~資料館
#OPEC+ #推高全球油價
#石油輸出國組織 宣佈
令人震驚的「#每日減產
115萬桶後下一步是什麼?
油價嘗試每桶US$100…
🔹上星期有什麼發生了?
🔸能否看出什麼端倪來?
1)#沙特🇸🇦同意以「#對話夥伴」身份加入「#上海合作組織
2)#中國🇨🇳和 #巴西🇧🇷達成協議,#放棄美元 進行貿易 Image
3)中🇨🇳法🇫🇷兩國首次完成「#以人民幣結算」的 #液化天然氣貿易

4)「#東盟國家」考慮在金融交易中 #取消美元#歐元#日元#英鎊

5)#金磚國家#儲備貨幣 可能會回歸到以 #黃金#稀土元素 及其他 #商品 以作為支持

「這一切都發生
在過去的七日之內。」

然後…
週日(4月2日) #沙特阿拉伯🇸🇦和包括 #俄羅斯🇷🇺在內的其他 #主要產油國 宣佈,從5月到年底,每天總計減產115萬桶,此舉可能會「推高全球油價」。

令人震驚的「減產消息」發佈後,#油價 經歷了達一年以來的最大漲幅。

~#油組 承諾每天減產超過100萬桶
~價格上漲威脅全球經濟
~帶動新一波的 #通脹
Read 5 tweets
OPEC+ ülkeleri [Irak, Kuveyt, Umman, Cezayir, Suudi Arabistan, BAE , Rusya] petrol üretimini günlük 1.15 milyon varil azalttıklarını duyurdu. Bu karar enerji tedariği konusunda sıkıntılı günler yaşayan AB'yi ve onu güdümleyen ABD'yi bir hayli zorlayacaktır.
Buna karşın yaptırımlar nedeniyle "indirimli" satışlar yapan Rusya'dan petrol piyasanın altında fiyatlarla alım yapan Hindistan ve Çin'in bu karardan büyük oranda etkilenmeyeceği söylenebilir. Hatırlarsanız ABD ve AB, Rusya yaptırımı sonrası Körfez'e petrol çıkartması yapmışlardı
Bu ziyaretlerde Suudi Arabistan ve BAE gibi ülkelerden petrol üretimlerini artırmaları istenmişti. Şimdi üretimde yeniden azaltmaya gidilmesi ve bu kararın bence anlamlı bir döneme denk gelmesi hayli yoruma açık.
Read 13 tweets
Summary of the voluntary cuts:
RUS: 500,000
SAUDI ARABIA: 500,000
IRQ: 211,000
UAE: 144,000
KWT: 128,000
KZT: 78,000
Oman: 40,000
Algeria: 48,000 #OOTT #OPEC twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Wait for more countries to announce tonight… #OOTT
NB: Russia said after the announcement from a number of opec plus states that that it would also extend its reduction by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of the year from February as a basis, accordingly to multiple sources. #OOTT #opec
Read 4 tweets
Breaking news: Saudi Arabia will implement a voluntary cut of 500 thousand barrels per day from May till the end of 2023 in coordination with some other OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the Declaration of Cooperation. #OOTT #opec
The UAE will implement a voluntary cut of 144k from May until the end of 2023 #OOTT #opec
The Sultanate of Oman will voluntarily cut 40,000 barrels per day of crude oil from May 2023 until the end of 2023, in coordination with some of the countries participating in the OPEC Plus agreement #OOTT #opec
Read 7 tweets
The thing is,

Elon Musk is being financed to destroy this platform.

They don't have to answer to Shareholders. They can destroy the brand if they want to.

Media Execs will sink all the money they want into this; because they're losing customers to Twitter users.
There are Autocrats around the world who would pay hundreds of millions in taxpayer money to spike a global communications platform that's bringing democracy to the far reaches of the planet.

This platform is all about engagement.

Corporate Media offers the opposite. #BigData
I've been kicked off this platform more times than I can count.

I probably deserved it once, I'll give them one. But, seriously...

No liberal has ever censored a view. Ever. We judge folks for their views, and conservatives take THAT as a personal attack.

Human nature.
Read 14 tweets
The EIA released its Annual Energy Outlook
Here's 15 forecasts that went right and wrong over the past decade - a thread #oott #oil #natgas #renewables
Oil Demand: In 2011, oil demand was forecast to be 19.1 Mbbls/d by 2022 (actual: 17.7 Mbbls/d) Image
Part of the energy revisions reflect changes to U.S. population growth (which has been revised down 6% since the 2018 - the first year with forecasts out to 2050). By 2050, U.S. population is expected now at 370 mln vs. 395 mln people previously. Image
U.S. Crude Supply: In 2011, oil production was forecast to be 3.8 Mbbls/d by 2022 (actual: 9.6 Mbbls/d).
2050 production forecast has been revised 5% higher y/y to 11.2 Mbbls/d. But overall, for the next ~30 years, the EIA expects production to remain mostly flat #permian #bakken Image
Read 15 tweets
आज आपण अश्या कंपनीबद्दल जाणुन घेणार आहोत जी बर्याच जणांना माहिती नसेल पण नफ्याच्या बाबतीत ती कंपनी जगातील 'दादा' कंपनी आहे. खासकरून ऑईल मधील!!
या कंपनीचे नाव 'सौदी अरामको'(Saudi Aramco) असुन या कंपनीचा 2022 मधील नफा हा तब्बल १६१ बिलियन डॉलर्स एव्हढा आहे😱
#threadकर #वसुसेन
त्यात नेमकं 'अरामको' च्या पथ्यावर रशिया-युक्रेन युद्ध चांगलच पडलय.तेलाच्या भरमसाठ वाढलेल्या किंमती आणि अरामको ची तेल उपसायची क्षमता या सगळ्यामुळे ही कंपनी म्हणजे पैसे छापायचा कारखानाच झालाय. दिवसाला साधारण १.२ करोड बॅरल उपसायची ताकत ही कंपनी ठेवते.🔥
जाळनं धुर्र संगटच!!😅😄
म्हणजे विचार करा की अरामकोचा नफा मागील वर्षीपेक्षा तब्बल ४६% नी वाढला आहे!
आणखी सोप्या भाषेत म्हणल तर या कंपनीचा नफा एका बाजुला आणि अमेझाॅन, गुगल, मायक्रोसॉफ्ट आणि टेस्ला यांचा एकत्रित नफा एका बाजुला😄
आता तुम्हाला समजले असेल की अरामको ला मी सुरूवातीला 'दादा' कंपनी का म्हणलो ते!
Read 10 tweets
Riyad 🇸🇦 -⚡️Ministro dell'Energia saudita, principe Abdulaziz bin Salman:
- Vieteremo le nostre esportazioni di petrolio verso qualsiasi paese che imponga un prezzo massimo sulle nostre forniture, e altri produttori potrebbero seguirci

1/6
2/ Il Regno ha il diritto di preservare i suoi interessi economici e attuare tutto ciò che ritiene opportuno per stabilizzare la sua economia.
Ridurre la produzione in nome di prezzi equi è un diritto intrinseco imposto dagli interessi nazionali.
3/ - La legge "NOPEC" non tiene conto dell'importanza della riserva di capacità produttiva e delle sue ripercussioni sull'economia globale.
- Ho ripetutamente avvertito che la crescita della domanda globale supererà l'attuale livello di capacità produttiva di riserva.
Read 7 tweets
Must Read 🟢
Death of a Myth

We are experiencing the death throes of the #US unipolar hegemony over large parts of world. theamericanconservative.com/death-of-a-myt…
"Until citizens begin to realize the magnitude of their govt’s policy deceptions, it will become increasingly difficult to understand the #US changing global position & adjust to the effects of the growing negative perception of our country held by many people around the world." Image
Since World War II, & particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US was the dominant & unrivaled world power. Instead of being a peacekeeper & honest “world's policeman,” the US has increasingly been a destabilizing bully.
theamericanconservative.com/death-of-a-myt…
Read 13 tweets
“In five EU countries, every reactor — 18 in total — was built by #Russia. In addition, two more are scheduled to start operating soon in #Slovakia, and two are under construction in #Hungary, cementing partnerships with #Rosatom far into the future.”🤔 #sanctions #Ukraine
“… in countries where support for #Russia’s gov’t has held up, #Rosatom’s one-stop shopping and financing remain enticing. Russian-built reactors can be found in #China, #India#Iran#Armenia & #Belarus. Construction has begun on #Turkey’s first #nuclear power plant…”🤔
#Russia’s tightest grip is on the market for nuclear fuel. It controls 38% of the world’s #uranium conversion & 46% of the uranium enrichment capacity — essential steps in producing usable fuel. ‘That’s equal to all of #OPEC put together in terms of market share and power’…”🤔
Read 4 tweets
JUST IN:
Saudi Arabia, UAE Clash Over Oil, Yemen Amid Growing Rift: WSJ Sources
#OOTT
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Skipped Abu Dhabi Summit in January to Snub Emiratis: WSJ Sources
#OOTT #OPEC
Now, said Emirati officials say, the U.A.E. is having an internal debate about leaving OPEC, a decision that would shake the cartel and undermine its power in global oil markets.
#OOTT #OPEC #Saudi #UAE
wsj.com/articles/saudi…
Read 4 tweets
#DEWESTERNIZATION
#Russia #Decoupled

❝ Since the United States has a budget deficit, and no one is eager to buy their debt notes, the Americans have to sacrifice even their allies in order to delay their end a little longer. ❞

#NationFall
thescotfree.com/usa/russia-was…
#DEWESTERNIZATION
#OPEC #SaudiArabia

❝ Maybe the Arabs also know something if they refuse Biden oil, plan to switch to the yuan, ask to join BRICS and look closely at [Russian] weapons? ❞

#NationFall
thescotfree.com/usa/russia-was…
#DEWESTERNIZATION
#WARSAW #Georgia

❝ Smart people understand everything and try to jump out in advance. Would Erdogan or Lukashenko behave like this if they didn’t know something? ❞

#NationFall
thescotfree.com/usa/russia-was…
Read 5 tweets
Abbiamo tutti i dati della #Russia nel '22 e possiamo paragonarli con quello che sarebbe dovuto essere l'impatto delle #sanzioni secondo #VonderLeyen

🔴Nessuna previsione #EU si è rivelata neppure vagamente esatta🔴 (Come vi diciamo da marzo)

Pil
Stime UE = -11%
Realtà = -2%
Inflazione

Stime UE = +22%
Realtà = +13.7%

Quasi la metà, con trend al ribasso, solo 11% a gennaio, ~come da noi
Calo Importazioni (proxy per la difficoltà a rifornirsi)

Stime UE = -35%
Realtà = -9%

Un lieve calo, come già accaduto in passato, nel range normale delle fluttuazioni. Nessun "crollo"
Read 8 tweets
EIA came out with their Short Term Energy Outlook
- These are the largest revisions in key data points impacting oil markets today. Although many of the adjustments are small, it shows the directional bias the EIA sees with its forecast models - a thread
#oott #oilandgas #WTI Image
With China showing more signs of opening, oil demand was revised up 1% (160 mb/d). Is there more oil demand revisions to come? Possibly. Expected crude demand in 2023 is still only up 5% to 15.8 mln b/d (from 14.4 mln b/d in 2020) #oott Image
U.S. oil production in 2024 was lowered 1.4% (150 mb/d) - with much of this oil supply decline near the back-end of the year. As earning season progresses (and capex budgets are revised), we may see more estimate revisions to come #crude #permian #eagleford #midland #bakken Image
Read 6 tweets
OPEC+ continues to miss oil production quotas, despite a recent cut. Total production for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 38.3, falling short of the 40.1 quota by 1.8 MM bbl/d. Misses vs. quota are getting smaller vs. what they were prior to the cut. #oil #opec
The total cumulative shortfall of oil supplied to market by OPEC+ is almost 1.1B bbls since we started sharing these metrics in January 2021.
13/19 OPEC+ countries (excluding the exempt) missed their production quotas.
Read 4 tweets
For oil markets, it’s fair to say that 2022 has been one for the history books. Price/volume swings and government interventions at a scale and frequency we've never seen before.

Mega year-end thread of the 22 key oil numbers of 2022. #OOTT #oil #OPEC
This list could have been much longer (!) and some events have multiple key numbers that would have been worth highlighting, but wanted to keep a good mix across prices and paper markets, fundamentals (S/D), geopolitics, refining and trade flows.

So here goes...
#1 -- $64/bbl

The difference between ICE Brent’s intra-day high and low in 2022 as supply fears and uncertainty drove massive swings. Adrenaline.
Read 25 tweets
Here's the #inflation story you're expected to believe (advance warning: this story is entirely false): America gave the poors too much money during the lockdown and now the #economy is awash in #FreeMoney, which made those poors so rich that now they're refusing to work. 1/ A vintage postcard illustration of the Federal Reserve build
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:

pluralistic.net/2022/12/14/med… 2/
That means the economy isn't making anything anymore. With all that extra money and all those missing workers, prices are skyrocketing.

To hear ghouls like @LHSummers tell it, there is only one answer to this. 3/
Read 73 tweets
.
Bears & bulls in $WTI $BRENT here's a list of catalysts that flip #oil markets green & RED in the next 90 days.
.
ON the - SIDE
=
.
#FOMC rebooted recession narrative & risk, covid cases China, no #opec cuts, no #opec meeting until summer, recession narrative EU, bad economic data out of China, questions about long delays in China reopening, La Nina warmer winter, 2023 earnings & guidance as not great.
Read 26 tweets
#OOTT | #OPEC MOMR: LEAVE 2023 GLOBAL OIL-DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS UNCHANGED AT 2.24 MLN B/D. LEAVE 2022 GLOBAL OIL-DEMAND GROWTH FORECASTS UNCHANGED AT 2.55 MLN B/D.
#OOTT | #OPEC URGES CAUTION AS IT CUTS FIRST-QUARTER OIL DEMAND FORECAST.
#OOTT | #OPEC MOMR: LEAVE 2023 GLOBAL OIL-DEMAND FORECASTS LARGELY UNCHANGED AT 101.80 MLN B/D. LEAVE 2022 GLOBAL OIL-DEMAND FORECASTS LARGELY UNCHANGED AT 99.56 MLN B/D. LEAVE 2022 NON-OPEC SUPPLY GROWTH FORECASTS LARGELY UNCHANGED AT 1.89 MLN B/D.
Read 5 tweets
Thread on OPEC
For those who are attacking OPEC. Hear me out:
1-9 I am a strong believer in free markets. Yet, natural resource economics dictate that natural resources need market management

2-9 Where did the idea of #OPEC come from?
Yep.. Texas Railroad Commission!
#Oil #OOTT
3-9 Just so you know in case you have no idea, Oklahoma and Texas used the armed national guards to occupy privately owned oil fields so both states can manage the oil market! This happened in the United States of America!
4-9 Has the US federal government managed the oil market? Yes, and for a long time via different means. For example, the US federal government adopted a communist-style price control that controlled all energy prices throughout the 1970s.
cato.org/commentary/rem…
Read 8 tweets

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